Alun Ephraim's avatar

Alun Ephraim

@alunephraim.bsky.social

135 followers 76 following 1181 posts

History PhD student, bookseller, artist and problematic crank.

Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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I notice that the level of obvious tactical voting in her constituency was off the scale.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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The really mad one is that there's a case for arguing the same for John Major, given that he was from a Showperson family.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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The odd thing is that the - big - error in the exit poll wrt Reform was obvious *from the very first result* the implications of which they carried on ignoring until I switched to another channel.

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Reposted by Alun Ephraim

Nick Barlow's avatar Nick Barlow @nickbwalking.bsky.social
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Every Tory speech right now is "after 14 years of playing stupid games, why are people giving us stupid prizes?"

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Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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He is ringing around defeated MPs to commiserate them - a good contact who lost their seat found it very awkward, because clearly Sunak was more surprised by their defeat than they were. (They weren't *thrilled* but as they said, 'I'm not a fucking idiot, I had a lot of time to prepare for it'.)

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Not naming names, but there's a new minister who I *know* is actually a bit of a dick, but I think he'll be quite effective.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Wilson raised many proteges and was disappointed by them all, but especially Benn and Shore.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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And a lot of the better ones who don't have that background were and are quite idiosyncratic. Which is not a bad thing, but does limit the numbers.

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Edward's avatar Edward @fornbirkibeinn.bsky.social
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Feeling good about my decision to spend a Monday morning a couple of weeks ago doorknocking in SW Norfolk.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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You'll notice that the final map just makes so much more *sense* for all its wildness than pre-election projections. Often the way, and this is the almost mystically fascinating part of election results.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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You'll notice that the final map just makes so much more *sense* for all its wildness than pre-election projections. Often the way, and this is the almost mystically fascinating part of election results.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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It's also known as the 'Sir Keir Starmer's Parents' coalition.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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It's fairly obvious from the results that this latest Labour Party coalition is dominated by public sector employees of various grades and skilled workers. Which is interesting as guess which parts of the workforce still have large numbers of TU members. Time is a flat circle?

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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I wish to congratulate the people of South West Norfolk for taking the opportunity, when granted, to do the funniest thing ever.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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The fact is... looking over these results... these mad results... well... do they not reflect more accurately British society as it actually *is* than recent elections? I suppose the lack of jeopardy encouraged that.

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Reposted by Alun Ephraim

Stephen Bush's avatar Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social
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Sorry, I am increasingly convinced we are a soon to be cancelled TV show. “Oh, eventually Scottish Labour were rescued by, let’s say, Mo” level plotting.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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I have won an intellectual argument with John Curtice imo.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Yeah, it's fundamentally a thorough rejection of an incumbent government rather than an assertive endorsement of an alternative. But, well, hardly surprising, right?

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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This coverage is brain-dead and psephologically farcical.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Especially when we remember that UKIP also stood at got 2% in H&SS in 2019 and boundary changes are Reform friendly.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Well, you do have to offer people something or they get cross.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Do they have much of an impact on voting intention in the USA these days? But even if not a performance like that would be hugely demoralizing of course, and that can also hurt.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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I gave a bit early in the campaign, which was the first time since 2015. Health issues (it still being early days as these things go and there were problems earlier this year) and living where I do meaning that I can't really guarantee giving time.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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It's like people not realizing that David Lammy is the most right-wing member of the Shadow Cabinet and being completely baffled when he expresses some of his views.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Is this sudden shift of direction (another one!) related to a similar 'oooh shit' moment? Because they'll have that sort of information now.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Though an individual MRP projection would perform better (it has to be noted) mostly for the same reasons UNS would in a stable electoral environment.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Basically if they show a big lead then, well, that's probably going to be right about the winner, but that's about all.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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I've seen some of it, and some is enough.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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One little problem they all have is that by using the Brexit Party vote as Last Time Around for Reform for obvious reasons, they will all have a certain built-in distortion as o/c they did not run in Con-held seats. And given how MRPs work, this will apply all along the line.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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At the end of the day you don't need a mathematical model to tell you that a party losing nationally by 15-25pts in an FPTP system is going to do extremely badly in terms of seats.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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They've not entirely moved away from their organizational roots in Clubland and that has not been to their advantage.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Often worth watching where members of the Shadow Cabinet are as well. And a lot of those visits have been as *chuckles I'm in danger* as 'Michael Gove campaigned in Chesterfield today' was in 2019. (Yes it was held in the end, but it was indicative...)

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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I also note that Deltapoll was ominously stable in 2019. And has been this election as well.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Actually this is one reason why the internal divisions that have opened up of late have been so vicious: fundamentally this stuff is all personality-driven.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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In other parties factions rise and fall (and in the case of THIGMOO sometimes confuse the hell out of outsiders by using the same labels as previous and often quite different factions) and even merge and split, but not so in the Cons.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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The fact that the moderate wing of the party went along with the 'Wet' label tells you *everything*. It isn't good for our politics, but they've been losing for fifty years and latterly they haven't even been competitive.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Big flashing red light for Labour in 2019 o/c. And the Cons don't have the polarizing aspects of An Issue Election to partially balance that out.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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If general patterns from then hold, lop a few Ref points off and give them to Con, but that's it and the big picture does not alter.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Always has been. It's a mess of an issue as attempts to control or eradicate it have basically never worked as it is so deeply engrained culturally.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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Congratulations of a sort to Lembit Öpik who is somehow now no longer the most embarrassing recent representative for Montgomery.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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There was no demand for involvement from any element in the Party at the time. And the big emphasis wrt defence policy was on pushing through the cuts necessitated by various changes to reality.

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Alun Ephraim's avatar Alun Ephraim @alunephraim.bsky.social
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He has certain political talents, but a big flaw is that he won't back down and won't let go even if he's made an obvious error.

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