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Andrew Tobolowsky@andytobo.bsky.social |
959 followers 825 following 3219 posts
Professor of Religious Studies, lies about it on planes. Lies about it in person. Isn't that religious. Studies the ancient world, historical memory, the NBA, these takes. Interested in getting off these takes.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Well, maybe. It's not that weird, and outliers don't make it weird. I also think it's likely they're underestimating Biden. But if there's one consistent data point, it's still him running far behind Sen Dem candidates in the swing states
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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He can win if Mike Pence has the courage
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Because even if you think the polls are wrong, if they're measuring anything at all, they're still showing Biden specifically having much lower relative popularity than these incumbent senate candidates. Again, well before now.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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The most reasonable read of the polls actually is "it's closer than it should be but voters actually do prefer Dems, they just - well before the debate! - did not like Joe Biden very much." You shouldn't take for granted the polls showing people like Tester and Slotkin and Brown up.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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The complete refusal to grapple with Biden's unique unpopularity. Why are people so reluctant to talk about the fact that he was already trailing Dem senate candidates in battlegrounds by 6-8 points? The two options aren't "all polling is wrong" and "we're totally fucked"
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I'll say one more thing and then stop because who needs the anxiety but - first of all, it is just true that places like NY have moved to the right. We knew that. It's why the Dems don't have the House right now, and it's why the governor race was really close. But I don't understand -
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Well, even the public polls have Biden down a lot of points in swing states since the debate but
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It's no use arguing with me! They believe it. In no universe is Tim Kaine of all people, or any elected in New York State, calling for a change if they don't think it's absolutely necessary. They know it screws up his chances.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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When I see Tim Kaine talking about Biden "doing the right thing" and the Lt Gov of New York putting out a statement, there is no possible conclusion besides "boy those guys are looking at some awful numbers they don't think we can wish our way out of "
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I keep feeling like ppl are wrongly jumping from the (correct) conclusion that the media wants this to be a huge story to the very unsafe assumption that it therefore isn't, on its own. The Dem caucus isn't some radical body, if lots of them want to jump ship, they're looking at v. bad numbers
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Which is to say, the evidence seems strongly to suggest that electeds believe Biden is actually doomed regardless of whether the media is on a muckraking quest, in which case they're pretty much doing (almost?) the right thing
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It's so interesting because while it's obviously true that the media is disgracing itself, and wants this very badly, it feels to me also obviously true that people like the LG of NEW YORK - and Tim Kaine and Elissa Slotkin - wouldn't be doing this if the #s they're looking at weren't horrifying
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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New frontiers!
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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What if we just... Added a "but" before it is not easier and then italicized original?
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I feel like last time it was mainly lecturing anyone with any criticisms but this time they're trying bullying which is... Worse? Better?
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I have a rule that any campaign that has Carville email me gets an unsubscribe
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Probs the desserts
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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ONE of these is a lie
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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He could instead interpret it figuratively by going out and performing competence and dynamism, by seeming to BE the right person
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Here's what I would like to see from Biden. I think he and his circle seem to have been interpreting "you need to go out and make your case" literally - which has resulted in a lot of spots where he talks, literally, about why he should still be the nominee, often in alienating ways
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I think that there's this fantasy that what saving democracy means is everyone who might possibly vote for Dems playing ball w/ whatever, given how important it is and NOT the party doing what it needs to do given that that won't actually happen
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John Penniman
@historiographos.bsky.social
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We are excited to welcome @mikemotia.bsky.social to the @ancientjewreview.bsky.social team, which will platform his "New Books in Late Antiquity" podcast. Check out the recent episode, discussing "Gospel Thrillers" with Andrew Jacobs (@drewjakeprof.bsky.social). newbooksnetwork.com/gospel-thril...
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I think "Trump wants to be a king" has some juice too - Americans don't like those! But you'd have to emphasize that it's bc of the combo of his personal lack of ethics combined with this SC, and not "the SC made the president a king" which begs the question whither King Biden
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I absolutely agree with that.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It is still reasonable to believe - 1) these are wrong 2) it's early ish 3) if we talk enough about Project 2025 these will change 4) switching the nominee will make this worse rather than better. All reasonable possibilities. But it's not reasonable to claim it's just a manufactured concern
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I guess I would just add - I think anybody honest would at least acknowledge that the current freakout has as much to do with this as the debate. And it's why federal legislators seem more nervous than a lot of voters bc a lot of them are running for re-election too.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It seems lie neither of those things treat voters of color as real people, but something to use
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It's so gross, I'm sorry. And on the other side, I feel like there's all these people who are at once trying to argue that voters of color are 100% behind Biden so white people have to get in line AND that all the evidence that Biden has lost a lot of votes with voters in color is suspect
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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"The plagiarism machine was really good at telling whether students were using sources" sounds a little more accurate!
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Howard Eissenstat
@heissenstat.bsky.social
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Read with great pleasure.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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want him replaced also! Just as plenty do not.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I think it's absolutely true that opening door #2 is way more unpredictable than many suspect, and that people are freaking out because of the stakes. I also think it's easier to dismiss as a freak out if you don't trust the polling, but a lot of people do. And I think plenty of voters
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It doesn't take much to say "for me this was one bad night. BUT I understand that another person, in this high stakes situation, might be worried that it will lead to another bad night closer to the election. BUT I think it would be a disaster not to stick with Biden for this and that reason"
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Right! I don't know what's right. You don't have to know what's right and especially because you're not in charge. It's not about having an opinion, one way or the other
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It's the kind of response I expect from Republicans
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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A lot of people don't want Trump to win. A lot of people, for very good reasons, feel that Biden's struggles might cause Trump to win, will very naturally want him to step aside. They're not media plants because they have different, reasonable opinions, or even if they're totally wrong
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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So it's an extremely normal thing that people who are terrified of Trump winning might also want a different nominee. The polling shows many do, including many people of color. You can say it's all wrong, but the reaction is not, for many people, remotely disingenuous
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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None of it would be happening if he hadn't shot down 3 points further in post-debate polling. None of it would be happening if he weren't already such an unpopular incumbent and none of it would be happening if he weren't already trailing Dem Senate candidates by a lot, probably dragging them down
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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started coming out, that's putting your thumb on the scale in such a big way, that's going to be in a Trump ad. C'mon now. And yet - none of this would be happening if the polling didn't already show Biden down, and down more in swing states, before this started.
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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That might well be exactly right. There's nothing wrong with it as an argument. But the levels of conspiratorial thinking, denial, and willingness to tout the party line are dispiriting. I also think what the media is doing is totally inappropriate - I was horrified when the editorials
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I've found bluesky really disappointing in the wake of the latest Biden controversy, in part because it really is a much more "civilized" app than Twitter and Facebook, at least in terms of my own day-to-day experience. It has nothing to do with the unanimity on the point that Biden should stay in
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It seems like people on capitol hill are on average a little more into it than Dem voters, though I'm not sure about that but rather than it being bc they're more susceptible to the Times it could also be bc they're running for reelection
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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I will say, without having any reason to pretend to know what option would be better, I wish the people who were convinced that the push to replace Biden is MAINLY media manufactured could admit that it still wouldn't be happening with different polling
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Joe Biden will not make it up the agrocrag
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Do you find it a little Bohring
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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It's funny you of all people would interact with this, hope you like bad quantum physics metaphors
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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A recent hobby of mine is using analogies from quantum physics very badly in my scholarship on ancient traditions. They're bad because I don't understand quantum physics, but they're good because I deserve a little treat
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Remember, they're only minor in terms of LENGTH, they're major in my HEART
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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Maybe it doesn't matter bc if Trump's elected nothing matters but if the Dems can get out of this with a tied Senate or only down 1 or 2 it could, in a normal situation, put them in a position to actually hold it for a good while, not too long from now. But only if they're not dragged down
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Andrew Tobolowsky
@andytobo.bsky.social
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But even this time the Dem Senate candidates have generally been LEADING in the polls in the tough seats - and long before this happened, outrunning Biden by 6-8 points in most of them.
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