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Benjamin Jullien@benjullien.bsky.social |
245 followers 455 following 118 posts
Doing comms around how climate impacts affect the economy, and how economics addresses that, with GSCC Network. Formerly at Les Echos, La Tribune, McKinsey&Co. Born 331ppm
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Indian banks see climate change as their biggest source of systemic risk in the Reserve Bank
(while they downplayed the usual concerns — asset quality, interest rate risk, capital outflows...)
nybreaking.com/indian-banks...
0 replies 1 reposts 0 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Reuters: From Black Sea to US Midwest, extreme weather threatens crop output
"Record temperatures in major global growing regions have delayed planting and hurt developing crops as the impact of climate change intensifies"
www.reuters.com/business/env...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Market forces are not enough to halt climate change, says Martin Wolf
Investor returns imply that the welfare of future human beings is close to irrelevant...
www.ft.com/content/b2b6...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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FT: Climate change is pushing up food prices — and worrying central banks
More frequent interruptions to food supply will force central banks to respond, leading to more volatile interest rates and possibly higher interest rates
www.ft.com/content/125e...
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Laura Fry 🇨🇦
@weaverlaura.bsky.social
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Well will pay for climate change one way or another. Be nice if my money was spent on PREVENTING disasters instead of cleaning up afterwards.
0 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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This is the exact same area that was devastated by two wildfires less than two weeks ago. Wildfire makes areas more vulnerable to landslides, and these types of compound whiplash events are becoming more common thanks to, you guessed it, climate change.
1 replies 54 reposts 113 likes
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John Kostyack
@kostyack.bsky.social
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In addition to having a carbon bubble linked to denialism about the energy transition, we have a bubble of asset valuations flowing from denial of climate impacts. The Fed and other regulators with responsibilities to protect financial stability are moving far too slowly on this market failure.
2 replies 2 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Exactly - the theme of "stranded assets" has so far focused on transition risks, but investors need to understand that, as the transition keeps getting delayed, their assets might not get stranded by the transition... but they may soon get stranded by physical risks!
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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I am not shocked. In fact, I will put my money on it being at or beyond the higher end of the range. People just don’t understand how far we already are, let alone how far we are rapidly heading, outside the normal climatic operating range of human society and its economy.
2 replies 6 reposts 13 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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read this far-sighted story by @scrawford.bsky.social here (and spread the word): susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/its-called...
0 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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"This is a story about steadily shifting climate risk into places that may not ultimately be able to bear it, both at the state and federal level" Cape Coral, Florida is the 4th most popular destination for people moving within the US Just 20% of Florida's 10 million homeowners have flood coverage
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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see papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
0 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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New working paper by EDHEC Risk's Rebonato et al. looks into physical #climaterisk and finds
Equities may be overvalued by up to 40%
"Current valuations appear to imply either a very strong and effective abatement action, or that climate change will have a negligible effect on economic output"...
2 replies 7 reposts 12 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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The chairman of reinsurer Swiss Re said insurance premiums still aren't high enough to force a reckoning with #climaterisk
US home insurance premiums increased 33% over 2020-23
yet "homes are still being built in places they shouldn’t be"...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
0 replies 16 reposts 16 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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#ClimateRisk could wipe about A$800 bn off Australia's housing market by 2030, according to XDI
4% of Australian properties will be uninsurable by 2030
Insurance premiums surged 16.4% this year...
www.reuters.com/business/env...
0 replies 2 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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WaPo: Heat waves and climate change are already making your bills more expensive.
Researchers warn the hazards will only get worse, for the planet and the economy.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
1 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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pour voir les risques au niveau local vous pouvez aussi regarder du côté de @callendar.climint.com, au moins pour les risques RGA, feux de forêt, inondation, canicule
callendar.climint.com/fr/applicati...
1 replies 3 reposts 1 likes
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Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
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Shot: Nearly 140K properties moved into high risk flood category in new FEMA flood map update across Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties in FL. Chaser: To access Citizens, the FL state insurer of last resort (when you can't get hurricane coverage), you now have to also buy a FEMA flood policy.
4 replies 33 reposts 38 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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New Analysis Pinpoints Critical Infrastructure Threatened by Rising Seas in Hundreds of US Coastal Communities
Check
@ucsusa.bsky.social's new interactive tool:
storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6ca5...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Will climate change make insurance too expensive?
"If we fail to institute preventive measures and adapt to the climate, premiums for homeowners insurance will double in Germany within the next 10 years due to #climaterisk alone"...
www.tbsnews.net/features/pan...
1 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Peter Gleick
@petergleick.bsky.social
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Story on groundwater depletion in the Ogallala aquifer on PBS News Hour tonight, with comments by me on growing climate change risks.
www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
5 replies 64 reposts 116 likes
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Cameron Beccario
@cambecc.bsky.social
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✨ New features launched on earth.nullschool.net: wet bulb temp and dew point. 🌡️
Thought it would be easy, but found myself down a rabbit hole of atmospheric thermodynamics.
Posted an explainer here: news.nullschool.net/p/new-features-wet-bulb-and-dew-point-temperatures
2 replies 22 reposts 34 likes
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Kelly Hereid
@kellyhereid.bsky.social
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Me neither! Which is why I sit on the editorial board of the newly launched Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, specifically because I think these risk products are important and shouldn't live in a black box.
Diamond open access: Free to publish, free to read
journalofcrr.com
0 replies 14 reposts 35 likes
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David Sacerdote
@davidsacerdote.bsky.social
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Unions + environmentalists working together on a shared interest in limiting the human toll of extreme heat. Love to see it.
Gift link
www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/c...
0 replies 13 reposts 26 likes
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David Sacerdote
@davidsacerdote.bsky.social
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Sooo normal for the New York Times to be running a "climate" event where one of the featured speakers is the CEO of an oil company. That's what their advertising dollars do.
www.nytimes.com/events/clima...
2 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Michael Wara
@michaelwara.bsky.social
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Just finished Carolyn Kousky’s book on disaster insurance. A little book with lots of big ideas. Strong recommend.
1 replies 4 reposts 15 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Is it time to include #climaterisk in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's "sustainable housing" mission?, asks @scrawford.bsky.social
This would have a broad impact on US housing, since these government-sponsored entities support 70% of the mortgage market...
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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He seems to believe there will be a "real challenge" only "if we go 20 or 30 years without taking real climate action"... wishful thinking?
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Reflecting on #climaterisk on home valuations, the chief climate officer at Fannie Mae counts on "consumer awareness", not regulation, to "slowly acclimate to the climate being part of our risk assessment"...
www.marketplace.org/2024/06/12/f...
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Atul Haria
@atulharia.bsky.social
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"I wish somebody had warned us".
Maybe like all the world's scientists...??
#DontLookUp
0 replies 8 reposts 13 likes
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Dr. Jeff Masters
@drjeffmasters.bsky.social
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Let housing market "slowly acclimate" to climate risk, Fannie Mae exec says. “If we go 20 or 30 years without taking real climate action, then I think you have built up a real challenge.” Sorry, this won’t work. The housing market is vulnerable THIS YEAR to a rude shock; at most, we have 15 years.
9 replies 21 reposts 57 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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See the study:
By 2060, "The supply-chain disruption effects are widespread with strong hits to those manufacturing-heavy countries such as China and the USA, leading to soaring economic losses"....
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Five reasons why it is time to start paying more attention to transboundary #climaterisk
A recent study projected that climate disruption to supply chains could lead to US$25 trillion in net losses by mid-century...
weadapt.org/knowledge-ba...
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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FT: Swiss Re says industry failed to estimate impact of extreme weather
Underestimating the cost of extreme weather events is “an industry-wide issue and comes down to a lack of data about the up-to-date exposure and the current risk values”
www.ft.com/content/48b3...
1 replies 6 reposts 14 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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“The question is, are insurance companies updating their #climaterisk models quickly enough to capture the changing dynamics of climate change?” asks Sandy Trust, former chair of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries' sustainability board
greencentralbanking.com/2024/06/13/p...
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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FT: Floods leave Brazilians with a grim choice: rebuild or leave?
“If they stay where they are, we’ll lose lives, assets and the economy,” warns Francisco Aquino, climatologist at the federal university of Rio Grande do Sul
www.ft.com/content/3121...
0 replies 4 reposts 4 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Experts say thousands of Australian homeowners face property value loss due to new flood modeling
=> by 2030, 3 million homes could have exposure to riverine flooding
=> "you can easily lose a quarter or a third of the value", laments a resident
www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill
"In a world enmeshed in extremes, our already-fragile food supply chain could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse, and costlier groceries is the first of many warning signs"...
www.salon.com/2024/06/10/h...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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The warming ocean is leaving coastal economies in hot water
The costs from sea-level rise and storm surge alone are estimated at $990 bn this century, with adaptation measures able to reduce this by only $100 bn (impacts on agriculture not included)
theconversation.com/the-warming-...
0 replies 1 reposts 0 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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After $25bn in disasters in the US so far this year, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is running out of money heading into the most destructive weather season, with a more than $1.3 billion shortfall expected by August...
edition.cnn.com/2024/06/10/w...
0 replies 3 reposts 2 likes
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Susan Crawford
@scrawford.bsky.social
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If you remember The Big Short, you'll recognize this story - post today susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/alarm-bell...
0 replies 6 reposts 14 likes
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Madison Condon
@madisoncondon.bsky.social
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the fact that we don't have this already is pretty bonkers
1 replies 2 reposts 21 likes
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Katharine Hayhoe
@katharinehayhoe.com
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More than 400 UK scientists have signed a letter asking UK political leaders for ambitious action on climate change. It outlines 5 actions including a strategy for meeting the UK’s net zero targets + becoming climate resilient, international leadership, and support for developing countries.
1 replies 54 reposts 118 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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New study by Tim Lenton and others "suggests that a scientific assessment on tipping points, conducted collaboratively by IPCC and IPBES, would represent an ambitious yet necessary goal to be accomplished within the next decade."
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
0 replies 6 reposts 7 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Call for papers on: "evaluation of models for risk-management applications, integrating non-stationarity into hazard, vulnerability, and impact modeling, intersections with risk management decision-making, and institutional questions on the provision of public-facing climate-risk information."
0 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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source: www.budget.senate.gov/chairman/new...
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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“This isn’t all that complicated.
#Climaterisk makes things uninsurable.
No insurance makes things unmortgageable.
No mortgages crashes the property markets.
Crashed property markets trash the economy”
-Senator Sheldon Whitehouse in Budget Committee hearing
1 replies 4 reposts 7 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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Memo to all bankers:
The ECB is preparing to fine a number of lenders after they failed to make adequate progress in addressing #climaterisk posed to their business...
#MaterialityCheck
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
0 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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How the insurance industry fell behind on climate change “It’s product recall time for disaster risk models, things are moving more quickly than predicted. We need to move on to the next generation of climate scenarios"
www.ft.com/content/b4bf...
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Benjamin Jullien
@benjullien.bsky.social
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FT: "Weather damage is increasingly extending beyond shortlived interruptions to energy supply or postponed consumption, changing both how investors trade weather events but also how policymakers consider them as they think about risks to their economic forecasts"...
www.ft.com/content/b4bf...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes