Kelly Hereid's avatar

Kelly Hereid

@kellyhereid.bsky.social

2076 followers 752 following 1503 posts

Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are my own.

📍Oakland, CA
Website: hereidk.strikingly.com

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Robert Mahon's avatar Robert Mahon @bedform.bsky.social
[ View ]

The following year, a flash flood hit my other city (Laramie). My house almost flooded. My neighbors basements mostly did. And my PhD officemate who was the director of the USGS WY Water Science Center who lived on very very high ground took on water. Even the people who KNOW can't gauge these risks

0 replies 2 reposts 9 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Robert Mahon's avatar Robert Mahon @bedform.bsky.social
[ View ]

Apropos of a conversation I had today with a non-scientist: Climate risks are not going to be isolated to the "usual" vulnerable places. Remember Hurricane Ida (which was my first hurricane evacuation from NOLA)? It hit Louisiana as a cat 4, but caused more $ damage and deaths in NJ+NY+PA than LA

1 replies 10 reposts 28 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I know right?? Share your cool things! I'm here for unironic enthusiasm about nerdy things!

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Prof. Kevin J. Kircher's avatar Prof. Kevin J. Kircher @kevinjkircher.com
[ View ]

Warning: Wonky 🧵 on vague energy/climate modeling ideas. Many papers I read in this field aim to compare climate mitigation scenarios or optimize mitigation pathways. The modeled transitions have lots of impacts: ⬆️ or ⬇️ deaths, illnesses, jobs, money, and so on.

2 replies 3 reposts 9 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Costa Samaras's avatar Costa Samaras @costasamaras.bsky.social
[ View ]

Read this great thread below. We can build a climate community on Bluesky. Here’s a starter pack for folks to follow some people who work on climate. go.bsky.app/Aa1sErQ

4 replies 48 reposts 92 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Yeah, I get it, and I've had it happen to me also. It's frustrating, but I'm going to keep trying switching up the message until it's proven that the issue is the messenger. Also speaks to why diversity of perspectives working on climate issues is crucial. Have to meet a community where it is.

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I mean, you could argue "wrong person" or you could argue "message that resonates." Is a college kid going to be talking about how to keep grandkids from leaving for the city and not having a job to come back home to? Bc my older relatives in farm communities talk like that all the time.

1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Katharine Hayhoe's avatar Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com
[ View ]

Every summer, I reset my calendar to better manage an ever-increasing number of requests. Last year, eg, I set weekly maxes for online meetings for both pre-planned and last-minute requests, and 'zoom windows' to defragment my days and allow for concentrated work time. What's your best tip?

13 replies 8 reposts 68 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Dang this is smart - I've been doing the self-meetings but they regularly get eaten.

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Tim Osborn's avatar Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social
[ View ]

Our paper published today “Recent and near-term future changes in impacts-relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world's Mediterranean climate regions” (Richard Seager et al.) explores the likely continued drying of most MCRs in obs, models and processes. doi.org/10.1002/joc....

1 replies 3 reposts 3 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Seismica's avatar Seismica @weareseismica.bsky.social
[ View ]

Fougere et al. record 2X - 5X changes in the slip rate of the Garlock fault over multi-millennia, providing crucial insights into its earthquake cycles and fault behavior.

Read more: doi.org/10.26443/sei...

0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Agreed - it's a potentially nasty positive feedback with big error bars, and have to net out vegetation changes. Tricky.

1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Indeed annual averages may explicitly hide where the risks are lurking:

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

The Eyewall's avatar The Eyewall @theeyewallwx.bsky.social
[ View ]


#Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan today, emerging as a tropical storm in the Gulf, then steadily re-intensify. Forecasts have shifted north and a landfall as a hurricane on the Texas coast north of South Padre Island is likely Sunday night or Monday.

#wx #HurricaneBeryl

0 replies 3 reposts 8 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Carl Zimmer's avatar Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer.bsky.social
[ View ]

On Wednesday the official number of cases in which cows gave people the flu rose to four. Today in my email newsletter, I look back at H5N1's evolutionary trail and imagine its possible paths from here. 🧪buttondown.email/carlzimmer/archive/fridays-elk-just-when-i-thought-i-was-out/

2 replies 6 reposts 14 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I get a lot more value out of the Earth Science feed now that I've muted the (otherwise helpful but just too prolific) bot accounts like LastQuake. I can still deliberately go to the account when I want to look something up but it doesn't swamp the humans.

0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

2023 Canadian wildfires produced CO2 emissions that were *quadruple* the global aviation sector.

But because it's a physical hazard they don't "count"

Physical risk 🤝 Transition risk

HT @hausfath.bsky.social

2 replies 15 reposts 26 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I've had to be deliberate about casting a wider net in follows, liking, reposting. It's a smaller audience but I've had good engagement compared with Twitter these days which is like, crickets for anything that doesn't hit the algo feed.

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

And here's that CA paper for comparison - same story, limited annual change hides big differences across wet/dry seasons

0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Another great example of where average rainfall changes don't tell you much about the risk, this time in NZ. Zero change in annual rainfall hides increases in wettest days + dry gets drier. Reminds me of @weatherwest.bsky.social's work in CA #DailyPaper

3 replies 0 reposts 6 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Bill Haneberg's avatar Bill Haneberg @haneberg.bsky.social
[ View ]

Albuquerque’s made a lot of progress over the past few decades, especially switching to groundwater as a reserve rather than primary supply, but I wouldn’t say that switching to Colorado River water stored in a 100-year-old dam as climate changes ever constituted “drought/proof”.

2 replies 2 reposts 6 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Richard Waite's avatar Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social
[ View ]

Re-upping this excellent article by WRI colleagues on increasing competition for crops—not only to feed people directly but also to feed animals and cars (biofuels). Did you know that since the 1960s, the share of global cropland used for domestic food consumption has declined from ~50% to 37%? 🧪

3 replies 26 reposts 48 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I've found judicious use of mute words has really improved my feed, fwiw...

1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

The beauty of a non algo feed! See I'm the opposite, if someone posts more than like 3 cat pics in a row they're probably getting unfollowed, but that's bc I happen to like a very sciencey feed. There's plenty of room for all flavors!

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Sascha Brune's avatar Sascha Brune @sasbrune.bsky.social
[ View ]

Great summary of French rift history. Fascinating to see that wine regions in Eastern France correlate with rift shoulders! 🍷

0 replies 4 reposts 3 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I'm sure someone has probably looked at this, but even though intensity forecasts look rough here, there seemed to be a pretty good grip on when rapid intensification would happen, just not how far it would go. Any papers on rapid intensification onset as a skill metric over time?

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Brian McNoldy's avatar Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social
[ View ]

From the beginning of #Beryl through Friday morning, NHC's track forecasts have been extremely good, far below their 5-year average error. Intensity forecasts have been biased low; the errors have been above their 5-year average. In short, an easy-to-track overachieving storm.

1 replies 4 reposts 17 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

I believe you may have misspelled "in the uppermost echelons of cinema"

0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Tim Osborn's avatar Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social
[ View ]

Fred Vine FRS, a key player in the plate tectonics revolution of the 1960s, passed away last week.

Fred’s passing is a sad event, but also a chance to reflect on just how recently dramatic leaps forward in our understanding of the Earth took place.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederi...

1 replies 3 reposts 4 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

In the early Twitter days science types would show up and post when they had a new paper. Wonderful! But real talk y'all: papers take ages to write. So, post about other people's stuff! You read a paper and it was cool! Or you had a question! Or it tied to this other thing! Tag the authors!

10 replies 49 reposts 142 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Well I'm just getting started - post a lot of papers but not very organized - so this will be me at least!

0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

This is terrible! Who the heck thinks they get to dictate what people post here, bluesky elders?? I say the only way to make this platform what you want is to post the kinds of material you want to see.

1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Iain Soutar 's avatar Iain Soutar @isoutar.bsky.social
[ View ]

Inspired by @kellyhereid.bsky.social, I'm going to try getting better at sharing papers I'm finding valuable, if not daily, then perhaps weekly.

This paper sets out some principles & practices for researchers to help avoid 'extractive' relations with communities hosting energy developments:

1 replies 4 reposts 13 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Great story about investing in green tech not to perform, but because it just makes sense. Struck by: 1. Economics (saves or makes the town money) 2. Local uni as an idea laboratory and community partner 🎁 Link

1 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Predicting ENSO! The impossible dream!! Love it

0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Richard Dixon's avatar Richard Dixon @catinsight.bsky.social
[ View ]

Belated look at the Beryl's rapid intensification. Sea temps over the region it exploded more typical of Aug-Sept there: indeed only exceeded about 8 years since 1981 in Aug/Sept. Yes, you need a system in the first place, maybe less surprising it went bang given these SSTs...?

0 replies 4 reposts 4 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

Trilobite Pompeii!!?! This is amazing!!?

1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes

Reposted by Kelly Hereid

Gabriel S. Jacobs's avatar Gabriel S. Jacobs @gsjphd.bsky.social
[ View ]

I'm still excitedly telling everyone I know about the Trilobite Pompeii paper. Any time we learn more about the soft-tissue anatomy of trilobites is pretty cool in my book. I don't think any of the authors are on this hellsite, sadly.

3 replies 4 reposts 12 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

This feels like a project for the science feeds 🧪⚒️

1 replies 2 reposts 9 likes

Kelly Hereid's avatar Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social
[ View ]

So here's today's #DailyPaper from me - talking about the arms race playing out in incorporating climate hazard information into the financial sector.

Your turn!

1 replies 3 reposts 8 likes