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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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robert p. baird@bobbybaird.bsky.social |
105 followers 157 following 661 posts
Thinking is, or ought to be, a coolness and a calmness; and our poor hearts throb, and our poor brains beat too much for that. || THE NIMBUS, my debut novel, will be published in June 2025 by Holt. || robertpbaird.com
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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AOC and Jayapal, in particular, are way too smart to try to use this as a moment to push through something that might flatter progressives while hurting the broader party. They both (correctly) perceive Trump as their real enemy. And they both have worked very hard to prove they can play on a team.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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It's slightly more complex with the CPC, because a lot of them don't have to worry about winning their generals. But there, too—esp given their disagreements w Biden over Gaza—I suspect their decisions are pragmatic calls about how Dems can keep the presidency, not who they'd prefer in an open race.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I get the temptation to read these decisions in ideological terms, but I don't think ideology is driving this. The reason centrists are teetering is not that they prefer the policies of Biden's alternatives. It's simpler than that: they think they'll lose their own races with Biden atop the ticket.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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…In theory, a majority that views executive-branch independence as more important than the rule of law should want to keep itself as far as possible from presidential elections. But every other indication is that this court would be giddy for the chance to help a Democrat lose.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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By now I'm pretty firmly in favor of the Kamala option. I don't think Biden should run again, and a pseudo-primary seems like easily the worst of the available choices. But I will admit one serious hesitation about Biden leaving the ticket, which is the possibility of SCOTUS-aided legal shenanigans…
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Come on. These are DNC delegates, not “rank and file…voters.” They are party loyalists who know their job, which is to formalize decisions that have already been made. There is zero chance of a convention mutiny. But if Biden handed the ticket to Kamala tonight, they would back her 100% tomorrow.
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Assistant to the Professor
@darinself.bsky.social
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I don't have a strong preference on Biden because of how much uncertainty there is, but seeing stuff like this cross my path is going to kill me. I'm begging people to learn how parties work. You can't Aaron Sorkin your way out of this.
55 replies 99 reposts 681 likes
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@kerryhowley.bsky.social
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Bottoms Up now in paperback! Feather-light. Labile. Easy to hide from whatever state happens to be after you.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Aw man, not you, too.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I do not believe that Trump's manifest and multidimensional unfitness for office is a reason not to ask hard questions about whether Biden can handle the job. That said, I'm still curious how much of Trump's "Executive Time"—60% of his presidential schedule, per leaked documents—he spent asleep.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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...or poetry.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Oh that’s awesome. Let me know when I can get a copy.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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That’s great news! Congrats!
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Bellingcat
@bellingcat.com
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Latest: An analysis of open source evidence, as well as multiple missile experts, have pointed to a Russian launched Kh-101 cruise missile being the weapon that struck a children’s hospital in Kyiv www.bellingcat.com/news/2024/07...
9 replies 238 reposts 476 likes
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Hahaha. Consider me duly chastened.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I thought the debate itself was pretty near disqualifying, but this letter highlights what for me has become the more compelling reason Biden should step aside. If, as he & his supporters suggest, the debate was truly a fluke, why hasn't he proved that with a blitz of unscripted public appearances?
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Haha, I'm not saying I agree! (Also don't think your last line is true: I was for Warren in 2020 but seeing how that election came out I don't think she'd have won the general.) But imo there's no clinching data point that points to a self-evident answer. Every alternative involves a lot of risk.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Yeah, and I don't actually fault that logic. Everything is uncertain right now, and if someone feels like that's the stone they want to stand on, I can't honestly assure them that they're mistaken. It's the pooh-poohing of the attendant risks that astounds me.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Anyway, I guess I shouldn't expect more from the "close your eyes, plug your ears, and hold your breath till the election" crowd, but it would be nice to hear what the plan is if the convention, or the second debate, or some other event proves as alarming as the first debate.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Is it a coincidence that the people now leading this charge were the same people who ostentatiously announced that they weren’t watching the debate in real time, because “debates don’t matter”?
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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While I disagree, I can accept that some people genuinely believe that Biden staying in the race is the best way to beat Trump. What gets me about the smug Bluesky contingent arguing for his candidacy is how blithely they discount the possibility of another bad public spell between now and November.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Honestly anyone making that argument is showing how unserious they are about the situation. The case against Biden is not that he’s in a coma. The case is that he’s not up to the job when he’s having a “bad day,” and that he’s failed to reassure anyone that his debate bad day was a freak one-off.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Yes, fortunately the notion of a group of advisers, allies, and courtiers working to prop up an ailing leader against an external threat is completely unknown to the annals of political history.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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jk jk no friends were harmed in the making of &c.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I have some news for 46-year-old you…
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Emissary Of Night | ليلى
@diplomatofnight.com
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New Popular Front's program to simultaneously support Ukraine in its war for national defense and Palestine in its fight against apartheid is, and should be, the standard for the Left.
8 replies 168 reposts 768 likes
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Brendel
@brendelbored.bsky.social
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Is there any lesson to be taken from the French moderate liberal and left earnestly trying to cooperate and help one another defeat a reactionary threat to democracy? Yes there is, until anyone one degree off from my personal political leanings pisses me off over anything, and I mean anything.
12 replies 121 reposts 847 likes
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Before this weekend I could not have told you for sure whether I was a Dead & Co. guy, but I’m pleased to report that I am definitely a Dead & Co. guy. Saw them at the Sphere and it was absolute magic. If you have even the slightest affinity for the Dead and can get yourself to Vegas, you should go.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Anyway, happy birthday to this brave and brilliant idea. Here’s hoping we figure out how to hang onto it for at least another 248 years.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I’m not used to reading radicals in the pages of the NYT, but this piece, on p. A24 of today’s paper, takes a brave and brilliant stand against the Supreme Court’s rejection of the rule of law.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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We’re in an awful situation right now. It’s confusing & it’s frightening. But I promise it’s not the fault of the New York Times that a lot of people are pushing for a new Dem nominee. The reason we’re here is that Biden showed the country last week that his “bad days” are worse than ~anyone knew.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I can sort of understand why, in an election with stakes as high as this one, people would much rather shoot the messenger than blame Biden and his team. But it’s still pretty wild how many people seem to think all this agita is a media conspiracy to elect Trump and/or make the election interesting.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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The logistics and power centers are all totally different, too. No more big-city bosses, different nomination procedures, etc.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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It’s definitely murky. Seems to me that anyone who wants to follow the orders will escape prosecution by one means or another. What I don’t know is whether an unwilling soldier can be compelled to follow an otherwise illegal presidential order.
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Henry Farrell
@himself.bsky.social
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"Hanging on to a correct view when the world disagrees with you requires one set of intellectual and personal qualities. Hanging on to a correct view when the world agrees with you, but in a stupid ... way, is ... even more... difficult, particularly for people who have the first set of qualities"
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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A potential answer. I don’t know if it’s the correct one. bsky.app/profile/bobb...
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Lovely.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I have no individual rights that do not have to yield to the president's prerogatives? (Gulp.)
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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This, in my very inexpert opinion, is one big unresolved question that remains, since the whole of the decision seems to point this way. It's an important question for the military, but as Kate Shaw argued in the NYT, it's already practically moot in a lot of instances, because of the pardon power:
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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That's what I'm trying to wrap my head around. The logic of the decision seems to suggest that it's not just the president's personal orders but any downstream attempts to enact them that must be protected from "undue" influence. But where, if anywhere, does that stop?
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Kieran Healy
@kjhealy.bsky.social
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The immunity ruling is a perfect expression of Wilhoit’s Law, Crooked Timber’s most lasting and most accidental gift to political theory.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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This is the part that even ACB couldn't abide, correct?
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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But that's only true for the (disallowed) prosecution of the president, right? As far as I can see, Trump v US disallows using evidence of official acts to prove a criminal unofficial act. It does not say that the same evidence can't be used to prosecute people down the line. (Another can of worms.)
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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In other words, is my right to habeas corpus outweighed by the president's apparent right (per Trump v US) not to face "undue pressures and distortions" in the exercise of his prerogatives?
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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Honest Q, because I really don't know & would like to: is this what the decision implies? TvUS says presidential motive is inadmissible to determine whether a president's actions are official (immune) or unofficial (not). Does that imply motive is also inadmissible for a writ of habeas corpus?
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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The new episode of THE MARTIN CHRONICLES is the best yet, and that's saying something: martinchronicles.buzzsprout.com/1977710/1533....
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I'm really not trying to pick nits here. I imagine many lawyers would like to say that immunization from prosecution cannot make an illegal order into a legal one, and I hope that's true. But the whole logic of Trump v US seems to run in the direction of Bouie's hypothetical.
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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I'm still not sure the below claim is true. Trump v US says that GWB would be immune from criminal prosecution. But what about the interrogator? And if the interrogator is a soldier, would that count as a legal order that they're bound to follow, or an illegal order that they're bound to resist?
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robert p. baird
@bobbybaird.bsky.social
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It’s one of my meta-frustrations about social media that it makes it so hard for me to write in anything *but* the frustrative mood.
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