Up Up With Tuples's avatar

Up Up With Tuples

@bretthooverwx.bsky.social

I feel like there is some value in recognizing where the mean track starts to cut across ensemble members rather than follow them. I wonder if there is a simple way to quantify this as a measurement of ensemble mean representativeness of its members.

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Jeff Duda's avatar Jeff Duda @jeffdudaphdco.bsky.social
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Here's an idea: when it gets to that point, stop thinking of the mean as a consensus and instead remember that it's just an arithmetic mean, and the mean of a skewed data set (relevant if "survivor bias" is being considered) is usually not representative of most of the mass of the PDF. Go median.

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James Franklin's avatar James Franklin @franklinjamesl.bsky.social
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Well, a simple count of the number of members in each time step would be a useful warning to watch out.

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