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Gluten-free Seitan@davidjorgonson.bsky.social |
139 followers 167 following 3870 posts
In the southern USA. He/him Posting about world events and resist lib stuff, mostly
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Nate said "the problem is I became a pundit" or something very close to that, after the 2016 GOP primary. Then he went on to act more and more pundit-y as time went on.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Math stuff. Election stats the same way he did sports stats. Doesn't require knowing politics, but still more valid than most punditry. The problem is he became a pundit. Nate criticized himself for this once, after he predicted Trump wouldn't be nominated - opining without building a model.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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"Within margin of error of Biden" or "not much polling on Harris recently, and also nobody answers their phone anymore, so we're not sure" would probably be more accurate I do think it's reasonable to boost Harris as potential candidate, and a lot more constructive than tearing each other down.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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It's the story because the rest of the journalistic herd says it's the story. What am I going to do, cover something different than everyone else? But seriously, I'm not sure why there's so much conformism - doesn't seem advantageous to any one media channel.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Surprising. The "reformist" candidate for prez of Iran has won.
The Supreme Leader and other unelected clergy, plus military commanders, retain most of the power.
apnews.com/article/iran...
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Johnson wouldn't be Veep for other purposes, like Senate certification, I'm pretty sure.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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You're right that Johnson would be next in line after Harris. Unless a new VP is named by Harris and confirmed by Congress. And House R's would probably block that.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Biden doesn't have to resign as president to step aside as a candidate.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump...
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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I'm guessing he didn't mean in a "crack down on spam" way either
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Yes. Also putting all the worst people together in one place has been dangerous. There are a lot of paranoid and hateful conspiracists. They should be at each others' throats!
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Trump Fails To Stick To One Lie
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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The "Google Project 2025" line seems to be appealing to Do Your Own Research types. An attempt to re-wedge apart the crank realignment?
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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In America, only young, left-wing voters throw their votes away on this scale. Amazing to see the old and experienced do it in other countries with First Past the Post voting Caveat: seat-by-seat matters for tactical voting in Britain
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Lib Dems also pick up many seats with little change in vote share. Labour & LD seem to have had a quiet agreement not to fight the same seats. Not sure if they did in 2019
sources: www.bbc.com/news/article...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results...
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Who picked up vote share lost by Con + Reform? Party numbers don't fully add up. Some some independent MPs, did well, but I don't have vote share numbers
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Labour gets 34% of vote, 2024 - Landslide victory, many seats Labour gets 32% of vote, 2019 - Landslide defeat, few seats Biggest difference: in 2024, right-wing vote split 2024: Con 24% + Reform 14% = 38% 2019: Con 44% + Brexit party 2% = 46% & more quiet alliance/tactical voting by Labour & LD?
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Gah, now I have to repost. And it does change conclusions Not sure who did increase vote share, now Yes, Labour + LD tacit alliance / tactical voting is a factor, probably much increased. I don't remember to what degree there was any in 2019
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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11. Admit DC & Puerto as states
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Sorry, I meant p8 of the NYT article it's based on. But that may be about a different comment, yes
www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/u...
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Paragraph 8 says Biden was joking
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Sourcing on most of these stories is pretty thin. Every editor wants a story along the same lines. On debate night, Biden did better later, and at the after even.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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"Cop" is clearly an electability advantage
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Part of the campaign question is "how old will he be in 4 years", which doesn't apply to finishing the term Anyway the weird meta freakout is about the campaign
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Wikipedia says he had promised not to seek a third term, so I think that counts as customary term limited out
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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He's talking nonsense about the ballot stuff AFAIK. But if he thinks Biden is irreplaceable, why is he trashing Biden?🤔
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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My guess is that people often want to do something that feels taboo. For conservatives, that's often swinging or "cuck" fetish stuff. For those with egalitarian values....
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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The leaks are apparently from donors and bundlers, described as advisors as part of editorial confirmation bias.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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On Buffy, Giles killing Ben
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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And partially indicated that in 2022, which was not reflected in 2022 actual voting. But I think the traditional method is to calibrate to election results, and they probably are trying.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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At the risk of being serious, the 2012 unskewers claimed to know what the correct results should be. Rather than claiming uncertainty.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Polls are often compared to election results, but right now that method would indicate problems, not confidence.
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Nicholas Grossman
@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
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My favorite line about war applies here: "The aggressor is always peace-loving... he would prefer to take over our country unopposed." No man, if you're trying a revolution against the Constitution of the United States, pro-Constitution Americans aren't going to simply get out of your way. Hard no.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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I just mean that if there's always a misogyny based net election disadvantage, and one wants to win an otherwise close election, then...
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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The logic of that is that Dems should always nominate white men. But women win at least as often as men, for other offices anyway.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Opinion writers are probably a lot less impactful than reporting choices.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Their supposedly neutral reporters are also opining and crusading against Biden right now. And have against trans rights for some time. For example.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Possibly Harris would be less vulnerable, because they'll need time to regear the hate machine. But new media is needed regardless.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Biden isn't, their own coverage is. They have been persistently pro-Trump for years, and won't stop.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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I guess what I originally said applies more to those who advocate firebombing Walmarts, more than those who might actually do so
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Yes. The 2020 protests were a lot bigger than the ultra radicals. Part of their problem was the inexperienced of the newly involved. Probably most of the arson there was not very ideological, except for outright sabotage by Boogaloo Boys and other enemies.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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The US has never encouraged others to adopt the Electoral College, etc, fortunately. A lot of formerly US occupied places have parliamentary systems and proportional representation, especially in Europe.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Yes, but when I've pressed for an explanation, that's the most coherent one I've got. From a leader of some small disruptive protests in the 90s (Progressive Student Organization at the U of MN)
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Is that what the NYT, etc, are doing? Are they honest?
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Most of the left "riot" stuff is a hope of scaring the "ruling class" into doing what they want, not even meant to be a serious plan of revolution
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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The turnout / third party / soft support seems to be in Pew's "disaffected Dems" category: agree with the platform, don't trust the system. Mostly young, nonwhite, poor or working class. Link has their categories
www.pewresearch.org/politics/201...
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Even after seizing power he took time to write a booklet saying Dutch ultra-communists had an "infantile disorder"
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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As far as number of warheads, a couple hundred has generally been considered adequate as deterrent - China had that many for decades, before building up to 400 or so
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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I have just seen videos of Kennedy talking for the first time, and I'm amazed that the focus is how Biden talks.
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Gluten-free Seitan
@davidjorgonson.bsky.social
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Yeah, Lenin loved to do the print equivalent of a 4-hour video taking down a rival YouTuber
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