Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar

Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

@shourodasgupta.bsky.social

581 followers 1255 following 71 posts

Environmental economist - Fondazione CMCC | Lecturer - Ca' Foscari Venezia
Visiting Senior Fellow - Grantham Research Institute, LSE (@granthamlse.bsky.social)

#climatechange #labour #foodsecurity #health #inequality


Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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@profejzrobinson.bsky.social @granthamlse.bsky.social

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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Prof @profejzrobinson.bsky.social (@GRI_LSE) presenting on attributing labour force changes to historical #climatechange.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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7/n As health of LMIC populations tend to be most harmed by climate change, the health co-benefits from more rapid emissions reductions are likely to be greatest in these countries. There is tremendous potential health co-benefits from both mitigation and adaptation strategies.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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6/n Estimated health co-benefits suggest that both mitigation and adaptation will be needed for decades to come. Three areas: reducing air pollution, improved diets, & more active lifestyles. Results makes clear that LMICs will find it increasingly difficult to achieve the SDGs

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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5/n Considerable spatial heterogeneity in projections S. Arabia, Chad, Kuwait & Burkina Faso projected to experience the highest increases in child mortality in the mid-term. Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali & Mauritania likely to experience the highest increases in long term.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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4/n We compute #policyrelevant projections of child health using #CMIP6 warming scenarios

Results show clear global health co-benefits of low emission scenario mitigation strategies

Stark difference between Paris Agreement target scenario & near-catastrophic scenarios.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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3/n Socioeconomic drivers matter! Higher levels of wealth and education are associated with smaller negative impacts of climate change. This implies both that climate change may be increasing inequality, and that inequality is an important determinant of health outcomes.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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2/n Non-linear, convex relationship between temperature & child health Outcomes are minimised at 16.7-18.9°C. Temperatures in Tunisia, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Ethiopia, Uganda & Kenya are already beyond this range Higher frequency of heatwaves & drought worsen child health.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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3/n The temperature-labour supply relationship is highly non-linear. Some cooler regions such as Salzburg (Austria), South Tyrol (Italy), and north and east Finland have had gains in labour supply due to warming. 🔗shorturl.at/inuMU

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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2/n During 2016–2020, labour supply in high-exposure sectors was 1.05% lower (~17 hours/ worker/year) due to temperature change compared to 1965–1994. Highest declines are estimated in Andalusia & the Balearic Islands in Spain, Cyprus, & the South Aegean region in Greece.

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Prof Elizabeth J Z Robinson's avatar Prof Elizabeth J Z Robinson @profejzrobinson.bsky.social
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Poverty is the leading cause of hunger in Europe. Dr. @shourodasgupta.bsky.social and I @granthamlse.bsky.social show how climate change is increasing food insecurity. More heatwaves & droughts drive up food prices, makes it harder for households to access sufficient healthy & nutritious food

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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5/n We combine food insecurity data from @FAO
#FIES with @CopernicusECMWF ERA5.

Novel time-varying regression allows us to estimate whether the relationship between food insecurity, heatwaves, and droughts is changing over time.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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4/n The main transmission channels are through impact on crop yields, disrupting supply chains, and price stability. Proactive safety nets are needed to protect the most vulnerable.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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Even Europe is not immune to #climatechange induced increase in #foodinsecurity.

In 2021, 16.3% of the population in Europe reported eating only a few kinds of food.

14.4% reported being unable to eat healthy & nutritious food

10.6% reported eating less than they thought they should.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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2/n Compared to 1981–2010, increased heatwaves frequency resulted in 1.12 percentage-points increase in food insecurity in 2021. Increasing drought frequency resulted in food insecurity being 0.47 percentage-points higher.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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World Day for Safety & Health at Work - #Climatechange is already affecting occupational health & safety.

#ILO estimates at least 2.41 billion workers exposed annually to excessive heat at work.

Time for proactive labour protection measures everywhere #SafeDay2024 #CMCC.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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Coordination between EU & Member States needed action across timescales, new vector & infectious disease control programmes, early warning systems, health action plans, adaptation strategies, & resilience measures.

#CMCC @granthamlse.bsky.social

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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3/n Warming, milder winters, increased frequency & intensity of floods & droughts are increasingly favourable for infectious, water, food-borne diseases- dengue, WNV, Lyme disease, TBE, Campylobacter & salmonella Risks are disproportionately felt by socially disadvantaged groups.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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2/n Key climate risks for human health: mortality & morbidity from increased heat stress & air pollution; geographic expansion & increased transmission of infectious diseases; increased risk of AMR; risks to outdoor workers due to increased heat stress stress on health systems.

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Reposted by Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

Reposted by Shouro Dasgupta, PhD

Prof Elizabeth J Z Robinson's avatar Prof Elizabeth J Z Robinson @profejzrobinson.bsky.social
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Bangladesh's government is already promoting climate-smart agricultural practices, has safety nets in place, but changing climate means more efforts needed to improve food & nutritional security. Our latest @granthamlse.bsky.social policy brief.

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Shouro Dasgupta, PhD's avatar Shouro Dasgupta, PhD @shourodasgupta.bsky.social
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Climate change threatens to reveres decades of improvements in food security in BD. Proactive policies targeting both food production such as reinsurance schemes for smallholder farmers and access to food and nutrition such as cash transfer are needed.

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