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Paul Poast@profpaulpoast.bsky.social |
1989 followers 17 following 581 posts
International Relations and Foreign Policy. UChicago Prof. Chicago Council Fellow. WPReview Columnist. Still on Twitter/X, but now here too.
www.paulpoast.com/
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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"Great Powers" in world politics are a lot like "Grand Masters" in chess: -- there can be several at one time, but not all have equal ratings. -- they gain the designation through a combination of ability and "norms" -- AI could beat both
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Interesting survey results from Foreign Affairs. My take: NATO will be fine. Trump will complain loudly about free-riding allies, but also take credit for the fact that more than 20 of 32 members are now meeting the Wales spending target.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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We're likely witnessing the "end of the End of History", so to speak. That's what I shared with Mariaam Kahn in her piece on the Allure of Democracy for South Asia Magazine.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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We're on the eve of the NATO summit. After 75 years, the alliance is as relevant as ever.
I wrote about the enduring value of NATO back in April for @wpr.bsky.social.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Much respect for those who signed the “don’t let Ukraine into NATO” letter. But I have a very different view, which I shared in a @wpr.bsky.social piece last year.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Statistics: the systematic accounting of how variation in data (i.e. the “noise”) relates to the central tendency of those data (i.e. the “signal”). Important for those interpreting polling data to keep in mind.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Seems like a good time to re-read this book.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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I'm not a constitutional lawyer, but it seems "presumptive" is doing a lot of work.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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ICYMI: In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, I highlight the today's formation of alliance blocs is more an echo of pre-WWI than of the Cold War. #polisky
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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Multilateral wars do not just happen. They are preceded by rapid movements toward alliance formation and consolidation of the kind we are seeing today, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Alliance blocs are hardening and consolidating. That's not a good sign. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "Deterring Armageddon" by Peter Apps. NATO has been central to preventing nuclear war. But in that effort, there have also been many close calls. Book details that history.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "Deterring Armageddon" by Peter Apps. NATO has been central to preventing nuclear war. But in that effort, there have also been many close calls. Book details that history.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Glad I could add to the discussion in this The Wall Street Journal piece on the new Russia-North Korea pact. What Russia-NK wrote down matters, but "it’s all up to interpretation, negotiation and bargaining". That's always the case with alliances.
www.wsj.com/world/asia/p...
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Polisky
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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How should US approach China's rise? This is a key debate in Washington. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social , I identify the debate's four "camps":
- Victory hawks
- Deter & Deny dovish-hawks
- Dissuade hawkish-doves
- Calm Down doves
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FPRIOrbis (Nick Gvosdev)
@fpriorbis.bsky.social
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Very important typology and very useful for understanding how the camps intersect and cooperate. It shows how coalitions can form in specific policy items …
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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How should US approach China's rise? This is a key debate in Washington. In my latest for @wpr.bsky.social , I identify the debate's four "camps":
- Victory hawks
- Deter & Deny dovish-hawks
- Dissuade hawkish-doves
- Calm Down doves
0 replies 2 reposts 7 likes
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! “Upstart” by Oriana Skylar Mastro. Rather than directly confronting the US, China has been selective and entrepreneurial in where and how it has challenged the US order, be it economically, diplomatically, or militarily.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Alliance blocs are consolidating & hardening: - Clear majority of NATO allies now exceed 2% target - Russia just signed a defense pact w/ NK, enhanced its no-limits agreement w/ China (back in May), & may soon sign a pact w/ Iran The "early 1914" vibe of all this is worrisome
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Greatly appreciate this write up about my "The American Century in Hyde Park" tour!
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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This is the 50th meeting of the G7. But could the group make it through another 50? I'm not so sure. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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This is the 50th meeting of the G7. But could the group make it through another 50? I'm not so sure. I explain why in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
0 replies 2 reposts 1 likes
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "Pax Economica" by Marc-William Palen. The idea that "free trade leads to peace" is often associated with right-leaning free-market ideologies (hello Adam Smith). Book shows that origins of idea is associated with left-wing ideologies.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Lots of debate about how Israel is conducting its military operations in Gaza. But what does the US public actually think? Polling from the Chicago Council finds that while a minority of Americans think Israel is going too far, there is a clear partisan divide.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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What to think of NATO at 75 years? Happy to have contributed to this The Stimson Center “Adults in a Room” debate on NATO's past and future!
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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On its 80th anniversary, it is as important as ever to understand the impact of D-Day. That’s because, as @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, the invasion significantly shaped international politics, for the rest of the 20th century and even today.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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D-Day shaped and continues to shape the world we live in today. As I explain in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social, it altered how the US engaged with the world, it set the stage for the post-World War II order, and it still impacts West-Russia relations.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "To Run the World" by Sergey Radchenko. During the Cold War, the Kremlin sought to seen as the leader of global revolution and a peer power to the United States. But the pursuit of status led to over reach and eventually collapse.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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When studying "the decline" of war, always account for the outliers (data courtesy of the MARS project)
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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The biggest issue facing humanity is its population—both the possibility that the human population will gradually wither away, and the ways in which shifts in population will affect international politics, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Should we be concerned that the human population will decline? I don't think so. But even if the human population doesn't decline, uneven population growth will inevitably shape international politics. I explore how in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "States-in-Waiting" by Lydia Walker. Points to an irony in seeking recognition in international politics: advocating for sovereignty is incompatible with sovereignty. This creates a tension within groups seeking to become states.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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What is the biggest threat facing the United States? According to a recent Chicago Council poll, the widely held view is that the biggest threat is from INSIDE the USA. One exception is Republican policy elites. Also, each group likely defines "internal threat" differently. #polisky
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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By dismissing outright the ICC’s charges against Israel’s leadership, President Biden laid bare the hypocrisy of the rules-based order, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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I'm especially proud of my latest @wpr.bsky.social piece. It's my 100th column for WPR, and it couldn't be on a more important topic.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Biden and Blinken claim that the US protects the "rules based order". But their knee-jerk criticism of the ICC's charges against Netanyahu undermined that claim. I explain why and how in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social. #polisky
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Interesting polling results from the Chicago Council on immigration. My sense is that "controlling" immigration likely means different things to different people. For instance, I'm in favor of an orderly increase in immigration.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "We Win, They Lose" by Matthew Kroenig and Dan Negrea. Title draws from the Reagan quote on the US approach to the Cold War. The book argues that this view should underpin the US approach towards China (and other issues) today.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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"This is the message the normative systems give to the strong and weak alike: Superior power gives no right, either moral or legal, to do with that power all that it is physically capable of doing" - Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations, Chapter 13 But is this message heard?
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Given the ICC's recently announced charges against Netanyahu, my latest @wpr.bsky.social column seems more relevant than when it came out Friday. How will the US respond? Will it support the ICC (given that it also charged Hamas and previously charged Putin)?
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World Politics Review
@wpr.bsky.social
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The US-Israel relationship is special, but not indestructible. It has limits.
Now, as @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes, it seems Israel has finally found those limits.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence. And Israel's military incompetence in Gaza is finally impacting the US-Israel relationship. My latest for
@wpr.bsky.social.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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polisky
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Wrapped up Intro to International Relations this morning! Here, in one slide, is the main idea of the course (and my answer to the question "What is IR about?")
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "Merze Tate: The Global Odyssey of a Black Woman Scholar" by Barbara Savage. Tate's work should be in the same conversation as mid-twentieth century IR scholars like Morgenthau, Carr, & Waltz. This book traces her intellectual journey.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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IR Book of the Week! "Merze Tate: The Global Odyssey of a Black Woman Scholar" by @bdsavage1. Tate's work should be in the same conversation as mid-twentieth century IR scholars like Morgenthau, Carr, & Waltz. This book traces her intellectual journey.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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Excited to take my Intro to International Relations students on “The American Century in Hyde Park” Tour today! Three locations in Hyde Park that mark the emergence, establishment, and culmination of the United States as a major power in world politics.
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Paul Poast
@profpaulpoast.bsky.social
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When it comes to nuclear deterrence, there are a lot of unknowns. And that's scary.
My latest for @wpr.bsky.social.
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