Sam Freedman

The Whorl™️ deader than a dodo @glitterati3a.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 09:13 UTC

Excellent analysis, as usual, from Sam.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 09:26 UTC

I would associate affluent with being able to buy / already owning a house. I think the second one works better.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 09:12 UTC

Thanks v much.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:49 UTC

Thanks - I will suggest to Substack....

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:44 UTC

What does it do differently? Allow log-in from any email? (I've never used it as a reader).

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:40 UTC

Post looks at the result itself, and how close the Tories were to complete destruction (that bit is free to read). And then the challengs that the new electoral map, and composition of the Commons, will create for the government, and a much weakened Conservative party.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 08:39 UTC

New post just out:

"On the Edge: interpreting the election result, and the future challenges for all parties"

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/on-the-edge

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 00:29 UTC

Yeah was alright pre-results but they just don't understand the numbers and they've got Curtice and Rob Ford sitting upstairs.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 00:24 UTC

This coverage is fucking dire

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 20:38 UTC

I should have done that....

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 19:51 UTC

Why does the core tenet of my personality have to be an inability to cope with uncertainty? Argh.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 10:33 UTC

Final pre-election post is out.

Dylan Difford on the final polls and how things have moved over the campaign.

Plus a lovely map of all my predictions.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/f...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 06:48 UTC

Not on notional results. They're based on the 2019 numbers not by-elections.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:24 UTC

They desperately need rid of Gallagher. Totally the wrong editor for the audience they have.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:04 UTC

It has really reinforced to me how much appetite there is for detailed information.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:03 UTC

Hit 1 million views on the substack since the election started today. Not bad.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:02 UTC

I think it's just them left. They're always last.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 17:54 UTC

I'll be tweeting.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 17:53 UTC

Final post of the day

What to look out for tomorrow night by me and @beyondthetopline.bsky.social

And a bunch of sites and resources to help you interpret the results.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/what-to-lo...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 15:20 UTC

Thank you!

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 13:40 UTC

See latest post - there's a link in there.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 12:43 UTC

It's done

I've finished previewing every seat in the country.

All 650 in this post, with my final predictions.

It's 77,000 words long.

I need a lie down.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 09:32 UTC

Someone's ability to be a good MP is largely unrelated to whether they came from the seat they are standing in.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 09:31 UTC

Also my favourite.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 07:41 UTC

That's previews for all British seats completed. Later this afternoon I'll do a single post with all 650 seats, including the 18 in Northern Ireland. Then this evening they'll be a "what to look out for tomorrow night" post.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 07:40 UTC

New election briefing just out:

Previews for all 57 seats in Scotland.

A completely different election from the one in England. SNP fighting against all the unionist parties. Lots of very close races. And some future Labour stars.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 11:38 UTC

I'm going to go through them all on Wednesday. I think I'll be a bit more pessimistic for them in the SE and SW. Not massively.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 08:04 UTC

I also look at the more general question of what adjustments might be needed to Parliament's ways of working if the Tories really do fall in double digit seat numbers.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 08:03 UTC

New election briefing out:

27 seat previews for the North East. The Tories won 11 in here in 2019. Will they win any at all this time?

Plus how does the opposition gets selected if the Tories + LDs have similar seat numbers?

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 07:37 UTC

Today's previews include Miriam Cates, bookies' friend Philip Davies and a lot of future Labour stars. 6,000 words.... can't say subscribers don't get their money's worth.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 07:37 UTC

New election briefing just out:

The biggest batch of seat previews so far - 51 covering Birmingham, Coventry, South + West Yorkshire.

Yorkshire, which is full of marginals, is where the scale of the likely Tory defeat is clearest.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/c...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 19:21 UTC

What do you mean?

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 18:57 UTC

Yes very much a case of believing the rhetoric.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 18:28 UTC

Well yes there's that too. Badenoch strikes me as someone a small group of commentators will love (if she becomes leader) but will become wildly unpopular quite fast.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 18:21 UTC

They think it's clever to use identity politics against the left whereas actually he looks cynical and inconsistent.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 16:58 UTC

Yes he is!

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 11:47 UTC

I'm saying a lot have crap websites (or none). I'm not including people who are already MPs and are essentially all safe.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 11:25 UTC

If you're in a winnable seat and you can't be arsed to make a functioning website (or get someone else to) then you're not going to be successful.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 11:25 UTC

I reckon you could predict with 80-90% accuracy which of the new Labour intake will be ministers in five years based purely on the quality of their websites.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 09:54 UTC

Can't remember where the ancedote is from but there's a Tory MP who wrote about being shouted at in the street "You've let all the bloody immigrants in! I've voting Lib Dem!"

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 09:20 UTC

Sankey diagram

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 07:45 UTC

Some well known MPs in today's previews, like Jonathan Gullis in Stoke. But also some for the true connoisseur of appalling Tory backbenchers like Daniel Kawczynski and Marco Longhi.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 26, 2024 at 07:44 UTC

New election briefing just out:

A huge batch of seat previews today - 42 covering most of the West Midlands (bar Birmingham and Coventry).

Lots of different types of seats + an array of some of the worst MPs around about to lose theirs.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/west-midla...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 25, 2024 at 07:34 UTC

Seat previews today include Lee Anderson's defence of Ashfield vs an independent (who could win) on fraud and drugs charges. Plus will Robert Jenrick hold Newark? Will Richard Tice win for Reform in Boston and Skegness?

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