Dirk KS's avatar

Dirk KS

@dirkks.bsky.social

27 followers 166 following 119 posts

Seattle. Reign soccer. Masks and indoor air quality.


Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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How did the reporter not even ask why it doesn’t work on iPhones? Yes, Apple is more restrictive in some ways, but iPhones work as transit cards in many other US cities

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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One study measuring effects at 1000 and 2500ppm. Plenty more if you search. And yes, I know what ppm means. ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/...

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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At concentrations like that, yes, it’s interfering with your reaction speed and decision making.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Please make a way for us to order high resolution prints of this. Or I suppose fabric from spoonflower.com and then we can fly it as an actual flag.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Not the point, I know, but here’s a much prettier owl I saw yesterday evening on the bike trail at the east end of 520. Not as nice as your photos; smartphone camera in marginal light (+bike headlamp), but I couldn’t not take the photo after it flew down and perched right in front of me.

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Violet Blue®'s avatar Violet Blue® @violetblue.bsky.social
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The Kickstarter campaign has launched! It's all or nothing for us -- find out what's in the book, who's collaborating, and pre-order a copy of The Covid Sanity Handbook here: www.kickstarter.com/projects/vio...

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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The early studies, with of course a perfectly-matched vaccine, were pretty clear that the immune response to vaccination was stronger than that to infection, on average. The story is a little more complicated now because the vaccines are always 6-12 months behind strain evolution

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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…not only because of waiting a few more months but because (crossing fingers we pick wisely) by fall the vaccines should be updated to a more recent strain.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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This. But also: there’s millions of people begging to be allowed to come here and work!

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Read Spear in one go tonight, loved it, thank you! And yes, I’d absolutely buy a sequel. Took me awhile to get to it because after Menewood, I knew I’d read it in one go and I wasn’t sure my sleep would forgive me. Relative length isn’t obvious in the e-book store!

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Nicola Griffith's avatar Nicola Griffith @nicolaz.bsky.social
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👀 📢 MENEWOOD on sale for $3.99 on all US ebook platforms! I don't know when the promotion started and I don't know how long it'll run but this is the lowest price ever.

More about the book here:
nicolagriffith.com/books/menewo...

📚💙 medievalsky

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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I don’t think there’s anything surprising about current levels, looking at the Biobot year-over-year plot?

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Emily Lakdawalla's avatar Emily Lakdawalla @elakdawalla.bsky.social
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Reminder! Come buy my wares at the Intergem show in Pasadena this weekend!

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Is it an accident that all of the SGT+ variants are on the left side of the plot and the SGTF ones are on the right side, or does it say something interesting?

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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It is wild that sequencing is now at the point where you can answer “how can we make this assay cheaper and faster to run” with “what if we just sequenced everything”.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Nice! What software and plugins did you settle on using?

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Emily Lakdawalla's avatar Emily Lakdawalla @elakdawalla.bsky.social
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Hi everybody, I need to move some stuff out of my shop to generate some cash, so I'm running a 25% off sale for the next week! I don't do this often, so now's the time to jump on that thing you've been coveting! elakdawalla.etsy.com

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David Fisman.  The other guy is a turnip.'s avatar David Fisman. The other guy is a turnip. @dfisman.bsky.social
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I’ll do a thread on here, probably on the bad place too And: yeah, masks and respirators are a stop gap. The sustainable solutions to indoor air are engineering solutions…on which your institution could lead.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Been following you since early Covid Twitter. Very grateful to you and the others there for showing to how avoid infection, still at zero! Glad to have you here now.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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My two local pairs do NOT get along, winter or not. Handing out peanuts near the territory boundary results in extremely animated chases.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Any pointers to learn more?

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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This…I don’t know why there’s an expectation that mucosal vaccines will be a magic bullet when the immunity from prior infection isn’t all that durable. Also, FluMist was pulled from the market for being less effective than IM; it’s back with a tweak, but still not clearly superior.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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The local house finches* have also figured out that I have peanuts; they can’t outcompete the crows for them or open the shells themselves, but they’re eager for the scraps the crows leave behind. @carlbergstrom.com

*or something. Too amateur to tell vs a couple of other possibilities

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Also, the less-than-stellar results of 5 days of Paxlovid inclines me more towards “we should study 10 days. Or entrelsivir. Or combination therapies” than it does to giving up on antivirals.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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I agree, but I also don’t think there’s any convincing evidence it *doesn’t* help. Is there any study that is - prospective and randomized - has a clinical definition of “Long Covid” (not a yes/no questionnaire of poorly defined symptoms) - sufficiently powered to detect an OR of 0.9 or so

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Merch team was clearly already rolling before you wrote this post.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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The opening paragraph of every Covid paper is damn near identical, or at least was in 2020/2021. Novel coronavirus first found in Wuhan spread around the world etc etc. Yes, usually with five citations or more in the single paragraph. Still tiring, but not plagiarism.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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I thought I heard one in the Arboretum a few weeks ago! I didn’t see it, and I’ve never seen one though I live nearby, and I thought maybe I was mistaken. But they’re pretty distinctive, so maybe I did.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Seriously? No one planned for throwback uniform day, much less a team sale? If we lost the best logo ever to these jokers I will be so mad.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Oh darn, they’ll have to use a crest they already have the trademark for…

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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RATs have consistently shown > 95% sensitivity at detecting viral loads at a PCR Ct < 25 throughout the pandemic. Usage guidance needs to remind people that early symptoms may occur at lower viral loads. Which is why serial testing has been recommended, though clarity could be improved.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Why do we make policy as if there will be no effect on transmission? Clearly the effect is smaller than we’d wish but even a 20% reduction of R from universal up-to-date vaccination would pull the peak — and the number of over 65s in hospital — down quite a bit

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Preprint date November 29, 2023, study period Oct 2021 to March 2022, they separate Delta vs Omicron in their analysis.

Sensitivity by Ct value:
≤ 25: 95%
25-30: 19%
≥ 30: 2%

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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As far as to contagiousness: multiple studies have compared RATs to positive viral culture. Which is not a perfect proxy for contagiousness, but what study design do you propose — that could pass an IRB — to measure more directly?

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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No one study has specifically compared multiple variants - these are all studies of virus in the wild. But time-of-study-period is a proxy for variant, and results across time have been consistent. Give me a moment and I’ll pull references.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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Are you contagious at that instant, with symptoms but negative RAT? Hard to know for sure, but the big reason you should still stay home is that the rise in viral load can be very rapid. Could easily have a positive RAT three hours later.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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No. No study that has compared RATs to PCR Ct results has ever found the RATs to be less sensitive to newer variants. What studies *have* found though is that symptoms start now at higher Ct (lower load), not as a result of variant per se but as a result of increased prior immunity.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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And of course “contagious” isn’t a binary state. Some people put out a lot more virus than others.

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Dirk KS's avatar Dirk KS @dirkks.bsky.social
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But RAT positives do correlate with high viral load (low qPCR Ct) and successful viral culture, so bright line — yes, absolutely contagious, no question. The questions are at the margins — is a faint line at the tail end of infection still contagious? Are you definitely in the clear after one neg?

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