I've never seen as many smart people with good politics disagree about an issue. Extremely bright people whose opinions and instincts I trust have a 180-degree opinion from mine. It's confusing and weird and I don't like it.
I think what’s going on is a combination of difficult-to-know hypotheticals and also differences in personal experience, like whether or not you are friends with any disengaged young people and experienced debate as a catastrophic blow to chances of them voting for Biden.
one of the fundamental problems with the debate is Biden needed to shift the campaign to forward-looking and to the extent he did, not in a good way! I like his first term a lot. He's at 37% approval. You can't *extra win* the folks who are already on board.
it's a really tough choice because (ditching Biden) is high-risk as hell. You basically have to reach a point of "Biden cannot win and someone else probably won't but also might"