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Dan Lavoie@djlavoie.bsky.social |
1656 followers 394 following 640 posts
Comms and policy. Work for racial justice, social justice, economic justice. Former journo. Current Dad.
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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For me, it's more like "it feels like we're on a semi-guaranteed path to a loss so we should at least give ourselves a puncher's chance." I don't think a Kamala candidacy is more than a 30% chance to win, but I think Biden is <5%. That's a fair trade to me, but very far from a guaranteed win.
6 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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That's a misquote. She said "this ISN'T like a broken bone."
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Ed
@notdred.bsky.social
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Sorry y’all. I am fully off the Biden train after the “what matters is that I try my best” answer. Maybe switching candidates now would be a strategic disaster but this man is not up for the task of saving us.
6 replies 7 reposts 30 likes
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Parker Molloy
@parkermolloy.com
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That's not, in fact, what this is all about x.com/nikkimcr/sta...
39 replies 58 reposts 353 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Fuck. This.
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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That ABC interview was insulting and aggravating beyond words.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Yeah, this feels right. I don't think I'm catastrophizing to say he made it almost impossible for him to win.....but I feel like maybe I am? I dunno. Very tough spot.
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I legitimately think I'm right. And super smart people who have good instincts say I'm 100% wrong. It's not great out here!
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I've never seen as many smart people with good politics disagree about an issue. Extremely bright people whose opinions and instincts I trust have a 180-degree opinion from mine. It's confusing and weird and I don't like it.
3 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Quite honestly, the net benefits of keeping Joe at the top of the ticket confound me. Sticking it to the whiny donors or giving him his flowers for a solid three years as POTUS just don't do anything for me (or much at the ballot box).
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Tbf, that was obviously a normal mess up in real time, but he had some very strange meander about Kamala that isn't mentioned in the coverage at all. This billion/trillion thing was not even close to a real fuck up but a couple other moments were.....weird.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Prisonculture
@prisonculture.bsky.social
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I find it interesting that people who correctly point out 45 is a pathological liar are pretending that they don't notice Biden's cognitive decline. If you're honest, you can say 'yes it's clear that he is in cognitive decline, HE'S 81 and I still think that he needs to be the nominee for x reasons'
2 replies 10 reposts 87 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Dems need to be much more forceful in getting Biden to leave. He's clearly never going to get there himself. It's a painful slow-motion train wreck and people are gonna need to take some political risks to do what's needed.
5 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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"King of Queens" walked so "Bridgerton" could run.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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(By "American Brain," I mean my own dumb brain)
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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The American Brian can not comprehend this map of UK election results. So many colors!
3 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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In 1988, Joe Biden had to drop out of the Dem presidential primary for plagiarizing a speech from UK Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock. Tonight, as Biden agains mulls a big moment in his political career, Kinnock's son Stephen won his seat as part of a massive Labour landslide.
0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I hear that, but man they have fucked this up in truly catastrophic ways (and are continuing to do it). There was a way to get through this but I think they've fucked it up too much.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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At this moment when all eyes are on him, four minutes is absurd and his team fucked up very badly there.
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Four minutes?!?!? AYFKM?
2 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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A really beautiful and important lesson from one of the best organizers in the business. Read the whole thread.
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I'm not disputing his accomplishments. I just don't think it has much to do with anything that's happening in the election right now on either side.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Meh....I'm not convinced that has anything to do with it.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Excellent timing for this fundraising text, Team Biden!
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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This is the reality. No one has to like it or think it's fair, but we gotta face up to what coverage of a Biden Campaign would look like the rest of the way.
3 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Moira Donegan
@moiradonegan.bsky.social
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Not to be corny but I do think the ongoing aspiration to make America a pluralist democracy of equals is righteous, beautiful, and worth honoring, even if it has more often been the struggle of minorities & dissenters than the policy of the government. 🇺🇸
22 replies 357 reposts 1645 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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123 days. That's all we got. Each day is too important. We gotta move.
0 replies 3 reposts 11 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Lotta "fake news" takes out there about stuff we've all seen with our own eyes for months. I don't like that at all.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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This is just copium. If you need a full, single-spaced page to explain why this isn't fair, you've lost already. Elections are tough and often unfair.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Yeah, this has been a very weird moment because none of us have any idea how anything would actually play out. We're all guessing based on gut-level projections. No one is "right" or "wrong" and we'll ever get to know which side was more right because we only get one shot at the election.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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They're not really unnamed, though. They are soft Biden supporters or up-for-grabs indies and they show up in poll after poll. Those aren't fake concerns.
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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This is an email you send out to kickoff your campaign, not one you send four months before the damn election. And if you're in the position of having to convince your top supporters you're still running, you really shouldn't be.
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Yeah, I mean for me I'll back whoever is our candidate. But I also recognize "people like me who will back a pack of gum over Donald Trump" is an insufficient cohort to win an election. That's where my concerns are (and I don't think those are irrational concerns).
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I think we have to assume he'll be ok most of the time through November but will also have some difficult moments that can be exploited or taken out of context. Are we willing to go along with that eventuality? I don't think I am, but I understand why some would be.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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My personal answer is that this whole endeavor to "prove" he's up to it is a fools errand. Biden is mostly with it -- relatively sharp and vigorous most of the time. There are also clearly times he slips, whether you attribute that to cognitive decline or just Biden being Biden, it does happen.
2 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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So strange to be asked to figure out which path is good!
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I'm fairly convinced about this. Biden agreeing to not run and staying on until January 2025 seems ideal.
3 replies 1 reposts 13 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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If I'm honest, I'm hoping he doesn't prove it. We'd be in a much better position if we weren't on our back foot untill November.
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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This is a good and important point.
0 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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If you feel that Biden should stay on as the nominee, you should be furious with the way his team has handled the last week. A more nimble response could've sidelined a lot of these concerns. Instead, they just festered and snowballed and may have been a fatal blow. Inexcusable staff work.
3 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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To be clear, Biden should still take the lions share of the blame. But he's also been ill-served by his team.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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If you feel that Biden should stay on as the nominee, you should be furious with the way his team has handled the last week. A more nimble response could've sidelined a lot of these concerns. Instead, they just festered and snowballed and may have been a fatal blow. Inexcusable staff work.
3 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Biden didn't even call JIM CLYBURN until today? Jesus. That's his most effective supportive and surrogate! That dude basically made Biden the 2020 nominee! The political and messaging response to this crisis has been just abysmal and none of these folks should work for a campaign again.
2 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Of course...and it's the worst of all possible reasons. "But what if one of OUR guys is a pedophile rapist?" YEAH, I WANT TO KNOW THAT!
0 replies 0 reposts 18 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Those assholes should go down, too.
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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Blaming all this on the NYT has some real "unskew the polls" vibes.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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I really don't know what this test could possibly look like. Biden is and has been (for the most part) normal and vigorous in public. But he also has slip-ups -- whether you attribute them to cognitive decline or just Biden being Biden, they happen. He won't be perfect until November. So then what?
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Max Kennerly
@maxkennerly.bsky.social
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One thing that annoys me about the Democratic consultant class is how they act like they're brass-knuckle streetfighters and yet don't have the stones to run nonstop ads about Trump's extensive connections to Jeffrey Epstein. It's all true! It's documented! There are photos!
40 replies 295 reposts 1124 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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This is not a fair description of what's happening. He's been consistently losing for months and down even more in swing states. His age -- which is an all-time record for any presidential candidate ever -- has always been voters' top concern about him. Then he reinforced it on a national stage.
0 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Dan Lavoie
@djlavoie.bsky.social
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That NYT poll should really do it.
1 replies 1 reposts 0 likes