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Dan Lavoie@djlavoie.bsky.social |
For me, it's more like "it feels like we're on a semi-guaranteed path to a loss so we should at least give ourselves a puncher's chance." I don't think a Kamala candidacy is more than a 30% chance to win, but I think Biden is <5%. That's a fair trade to me, but very far from a guaranteed win.
6 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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@leonceg.bsky.social
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How often in life do you get guaranteed wins? The idea that Dems have to seek it is absurd. You take the best chance available, and right now, not Biden. God the Dem gerontocracy thing has got to end. These folks remain scared of modern politics and ignorant of the modern media and how to play it
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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chatham harrison is tending a new garden
@chathamharrison.bsky.social
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I don't see any reason to be confident that Biden is very likely to lose *&* believe Kamala has significantly better chances
0 replies 0 reposts 12 likes
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Aubrey Gilleran
@aubreygilleran.bsky.social
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There really isn't a situation in 2024, considering the partisan makeup of the nation and swing states, that any candidate is going to be doing worse than a 1/3 shot of winning the election.
2 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Lux in the Bronx 🎗️
@rlux.nyc
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Vibes are a terrible way to make accurate forecasts.
0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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∞ Monkeys
@somanymonkeys.bsky.social
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Less than 5% sounds like an arbitrary number based on your mood, not an analysis of polls, trends & past elections. Trump is *highly* unlikely to break 47% of the popular vote. He may come in closer to 45%. It's probably close to 50-50 that undecideds reach the same conclusion they did in 2020.
0 replies 0 reposts 6 likes