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ol tonyo@fraustian.bsky.social |
47 followers 294 following 365 posts
That net does not make me feel safe All those holes make me nervous
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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hmm gotcha, i think this is scarier for biden than the press. He can't stay in without funds and if he can't get any good media attention (or work the phones with big donors) how's he going to convince people to give?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Do you read this as permanent damage or more of a pressure/anger campaign from big donors?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I guess if we're capable of running a surrogate candidacy like this then fine and good. Bernie's (and fetterman's tbh) facile defense of Biden puts in sharp relief biden's inability to do that ... (which totally sucks and is the fundamental thing that everyone's fighting about imo)
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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really wish dems sold a sticker that said somethng like "be normal, vote dem" so i could put it on my truck
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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haha that's interesting, like if dems talked about it more it wouldn't be cool enough to go viral/conspiracy?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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it's kind of interesting that it's getting so much juice in the trump news vacuum created by the media pile-on re biden's age. Wonder if the debate was a hook signaling that it's time to check in on the election. I guess it's also probably downstream of the immunity case.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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or, as you mentioned earlier, in support of treating specific actions/holdings/cases as illegitimate (which is dangerous, but i mean look where we are)
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I liked the @proptermalone.bsky.social plan to get it finished by right after the RNC. That seems like a good deadline to have the ducks in a row. It's still summer and there's plenty of time to get jazzed for biden or coalesce around harris. but def need some finality on it soon
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I think this fight is between a bunch of solidly dem partisans who are all going to vote dem no matter what. I kinda doubt it spills out too bad except in the event of a loss (at which point things are going to blow up but bad)
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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fwiw seems like this is the kind of thing candidates do, multiple times a day, every day during teh election
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Yeah. I mean all this in good faith and as a biden supporter, but I think a lot of the malaise is that none of us think biden is going to get out on the stump and fight and give a stemwinder. The only path to winning is scraping by and that's not a position that's fun to be in.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I really could see the polling being off for all these reasons. But of course there's a difference between being unsurprised by a polling miss and relying on one. And I feel like a lot of us have almost assumed the polls are wrong at this point and well, this is not a fun position to be in imo
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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wait is boozy talking hog again?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Yeah completely -- they're rerunning 2020 which was (rightly) a "trump bad" + keep biden out of the news campaign. That's not going to help them make up ground at this point ... it could work but it's a long shot i think at this point
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I def take your word that he's being genuine. But I also think being strongly pro biden is the best political play from his perspective. Relatedly, it seems first-mover and coordination issues are the real prob for people wanting to move on from Biden.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Sure thing, was just making sure i understood your meaning. I'd imagine he's playing for 2028 either way, right?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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You mean as evidence the dam is holding?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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That sucks. We've all been there but it's always such a downer to get injured. Best of luck and hope you're back out there soon.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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when he says "it was kind of a fait accompli" what is "it" referring to?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I expect he'll be pretty bad bc that's what we've seen lately. And I guess bc of that I wonder if the pro-removal side has coordinated enough to take advantage of any stumbles.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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yeah i think i'm with you and i shouldn't have said anything. Since he's not dropping out it's not clear it matters if he's healthy or not. you go to war w the army you've got etc.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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respectfully i do think we should probably be focusing on the first prong (i.e., his actual health status), its treatment in the press (right or wrong doesn't really matter tbh), and then how likely that is to inform the second prong, as we head into the fall
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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If he doesn't mess up again and basically stays out of dodge i think the answer is "maybe." But he's running for president, which kinda requires him to talk to people, which, as Drezner describes, hasn't been going that great.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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a thing i think about wrt press coverage: trump's had millions of "issues" that were this serious. He's been impeached twice. And yet eventually the press kinda moves on and it just gets absorbed into the price of trump. Can biden's age be that kind of issue for biden?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Team biden is just gonna try to weekend at bernie's him, right? Which could work. I hope they know what they're doing bc if it doesn't ... 1) we get stuck with fascism and 2) the knives are going to be *out* for them
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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this framing is emblematic of why ppl are upset with coverage. The moralizing re the dems, who appear to be honestly grappling with what to do for the democracy, and re republicans, well they just do fascism, tigers can't change their stripes!
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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he's got the votes, there's not much to do if he doesn't want it done, right? Who's gonna kamikaze their career just to be blamed for a loss?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I'm sorry about your father. None of this tabloid hyperventilating by the Times is necessary. There's enough meat on the bone without resorting to wildly irresponsible conjecture. They don't have receipts on this and so it's just gutless navel gazing insinuation. I'd be furious if I were you too.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I guess which is to say, I understand the good-faith freakout from every direction
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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I'm not saying there are better options out there, but it's terribly scary to go into a rerun of 2020, where the margins were tens of thousands of votes, hoping his cognitive issues (whatever they are) won't move votes. It may not matter, but it definitely could move undecideds in MI enough, right?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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haha yes this is a good point. And no one has a crystal ball to tell us which option maximizes our chances ... so yay gonna be a booze filled autumn
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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yeah i think that's the theory of the case for a biden win. And I think it's pretty likely (like, 30-40% things happen a lot). I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned though. We don't need Biden to be '08 Obama but that he has to pick and choose media spots makes the attacks really tough to deal w
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Do you think his numbers improve over the next few months just bc of fundamentals/Trump?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Yeah, i agree -- there are a bunch of reasons to think the error bars are really wide this cycle. It's also not much of a salve to hope that the polls are sort of systematically wrong. It could be true (and i kinda think it is) but imo we don't have lots of evidence that its necessarily true.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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weird response issues (differential response and then also weirdos are the only ones who pick up their phones and thus may not be representative politically of the voting population) continues to be my bugaboo about all the polls
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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wait
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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also if you get up early it's a great excuse to sneak a morning brew. good luck and happy smoking duder
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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oh yeah baby that sounds like a great plan if you've got a pellet smoker you're made in teh shade
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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wrap it up baby but then give it a half hour over the heat after it's done to toughen up the bark. Gotta play it safe when smoking butts
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Jonathan Bernstein
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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There's good reason to question whether Biden is up to the job, and if not, he shouldn't be president, let alone running for more. But otherwise? Dem certainty that he'll lose is nuts. With a bunch more polls in, 538 has him down by 2.3 pct points after a disaster week. That's bupkis!
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Yeah fair enough, just trying to answer, like academically, why one might consider a person who hasn't voted in the past "likely to vote."
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Fwiw Pew has a lot of good stuff on this if you're curious. Pollsters basically ask a bunch of Qs and then cross with vote history to see if likely to vote. IMO there are good reasons to be skeptical of the polls generally but NYT does know what they're doing.
www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016...
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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where'd this chart come from?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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For sure, I do think the admin's response to this one was more aggressive than is typical from them. To me, it seems inadequate to the moment. But I'm dumb, so I'm willing to trust they're keeping their powder dry for a reason. But i dunno, that speech expressed a helplessness that wasn't fun to me
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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ah, sorry, i'll prepare for my block, not trying to stir shit up
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Agreed, but isn't the fact that Biden (and his admin) isn't out there banging this very drum an indictment of him (and maybe his capacities)?
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Jesus, could he look like more of a nazi if he tried? (he tried)
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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They're correlated with the state polls enough that it gives you some information. Biden's numbers in CA will be better than a national poll but his numbers in South Dakota worse. In the past couple of elections the Dem has needed to be +4 or so nationally to win.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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That's a really good result. I genuinely hope that's the state of the race in pa. To the Biden team's credit it seems like he's got a full press tour booked up over the next week.
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ol tonyo
@fraustian.bsky.social
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Yeah maybe they'd need to be a bit worse? It's not the national numbers that worry, it's the swing states. But also they're going to need a plan to win, and if the numbers stay this bad and Joe can't effectively message that seems like a problem. But maybe he's OK and all this is fixable.
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