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Jonathan Bernstein

@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social

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Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.

Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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(1) a lot of the coverage badly conflates serious and non-problenms; (2) Republicans spent 4 years conflating them (3) I suspect a lot of us bring our experiences to this, for better and worse.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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One thing: as people have said, many have known someone who declined rapidly. But we’ve *also* someone who was cognitively aces but gets treated as an idiot because of physical and/or superficial issues. And…

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David S. Bernstein 's avatar David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social
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By my count, 41 different incumbents or nominees in competitive US House races (tossup or lean) tweeted photos of themselves at July 4 parades yesterday in their districts. HOW GREAT IS AMERICA

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Although at that point if he’s convinced the party he should stay I doubt there’s significant long-term damage. The real damage would be a Biden v party standoff, but that’s unlikely.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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I think this reaction may be correct in 5-10 days but probably not yet.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Unfortunately it’s just not clear whether he’s fit to govern or not, and too much of the reporting (and their sources!) conflates superficial stuff with real potential issues.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Sure, but that doesn't count against him being out of it.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Stayed old and all-American on the 5th so Mingus, Rickie Lee Jones, Stevie Wonder, and closing it out for now with Metal Circus and Chronic Town, which may not be the greatest two EPs ever but they'll do until something else comes along.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Also he more tightly controls the prosecution power, so while he's in office they're likely safe. On the other hand, trusting any tyrant to stay loyal to the underlings is a long-term losing proposition.

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Brendan Nyhan's avatar Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social
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What kind of illiberal lunacy is this? www.theguardian.com/politics/art...

Think of who you don't want in power. Now imagine them enforcing this law.

A society without misinformation is inherently unfree (and impossible).

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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If Trump knows nothing about Project 2025 he's way more out of it than Biden. (Trump is lying but he is, in fact, way more out of it than Biden, who may be in fact be too out of it to be president).

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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This is exactly the kind of question that makes this topic so fascinating to me. The answers are really important! But also so difficult to unpack. The relevant data is often hard to see and murky even when you can see it, and causation is *at best* complex.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Living in a (1) Southern (2) military city *way* too many people have called me sir and as a westerner I Do Not Like It not one bit.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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I think Biden's been a good president and (separately) the US economy has been better than most others....but fairly sure the difference in the US is the out-party chose to nominate a candidate everyone hates.

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Jacob T. Levy's avatar Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social
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It is good and normal for Joe Biden to sleep like an 81-year old, and he's a better president 6 hours a day than Trump was for the 17 minutes a day that he paid attention to anything and the other 12 hours that he was awake doing stupid crap. But still, "needs more sleep" is a disastrous message.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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My 4th listening turns out to have been mostly old stuff: Louis Armstrong Los Lobos Aretha The Breeders P!nk Digital Underground Violent Femmes The Go-Go's Ramones Janelle Monáe Bob Dylan Ella

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Somewhat disagree. He's done some stuff, but there have been complaints from Dem electeds that he's not reaching out to them enough. And while there's nothing I'd call definitive, some of the re-reporting on the Europe trips indicated real (potential?) problems. Wasn't the case last year.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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And I suppose I should mention that Biden on his "bad night" showed a far better grasp of the things presidents need to know than Trump and it wasn't close. But while "better than Trump" makes for an easy voting decision, both parties should have higher standards.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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The thing that really does have me concerned about Biden is that we're a week out and he hasn't done or even scheduled three or four things like this. A year ago he was clearly capable of doing such things.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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Someone with skills needed to put FDR into that picture.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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One of the all-time greats that for some reason I've never seen. Have to rectify that.

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OG_McDuck's avatar OG_McDuck @ogmcduck.bsky.social
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Network, the true Bicentennial favorite

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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As much as I love McGinty, for the 4th I'd probably be more likely to go with Morgan's Creek. Or Hail the Conquering Hero. Or Sullivan's Travels....Or all four?

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Danny Rubin's avatar Danny Rubin @dannyrubin.bsky.social
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We’re watching Jaws when we get home tonight.

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Ed B's avatar Ed B @edbernste.bsky.social
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Jaws, obviously. Always good to watch the Great McGinty, too. A history movie, like Blazing Saddles? An immigration saga, like Night at the Opera? I also feel like a movie about how awful the hereditary aristocracy is would be appropriate, so maybe the 1937 Prince and the Pauper with Errol Flynn?

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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I see Turner is showing The Music Man today, which is excellent...What else is on y'all's viewing list for the 4th? The Godfather? Do the Right Thing? Kane? American Graffiti? Bill & Ted? That DS9 scene where Quark and Garak talk about root beer?

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Anna O Law's avatar Anna O Law @unlawfulentries.bsky.social
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As a constitutional scholar, I am well aware of the serious headwinds and challenges facing the US on the nation's birthday. It will be bad, whatever happens in the Fall elections. But I also know enough US history that resistance is not futile and we have many historical models of it.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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My old neighborhood here had a wonderful parade every year, but alas not where we live now. Really miss it.

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Jonathan Bernstein's avatar Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
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I can never tell if I get the balance right between patriotism and cliche in my 4th of July items but I'm glad that this year it falls on my turn to write and now I just have to figure out whether it's overkill to add an extraneous footnote about The Omega Glory.

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Andrew Sabl's avatar Andrew Sabl @andysabl.bsky.social
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COORDINATION is indeed the big reason—and probably the most important PoliSci concept that’s hardest for laypeople to grasp. Deciding which of several plausible candidates to run would take time and energy that the party does not have and generate bitterness that the party can’t afford.

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