Gesine Weber's avatar

Gesine Weber

@gesineweber.bsky.social

831 followers 315 following 235 posts

European defence (EU, France, UK, Germany) & geopolitics. Fulbright-Schuman Visiting Researcher at Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, & PhD candidate at Defence Studies Department, KCL. Matcha and sunrise lover.

Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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In German: Gastbeitrag für @nzz.ch zur strategischen Wende Frankreichs.

Anmerkung: wir haben den Beitrag vor der Auflösung der Assemblée Nationale fertiggestellt - die Macrons Glaubwürdigkeit nochmals schwächen dürfte.

www.nzz.ch/meinung/macr...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Back to this platform after a short break - and sharing my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social as a weekend read: warontherocks.com/2024/05/31143/

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Reposted by Gesine Weber

World Politics Review's avatar World Politics Review @wpr.bsky.social
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After having relied for decades on US support, Europeans will have to shoulder a much more significant burden in European security themselves in the foreseeable future.

@gesineweber.bsky.social breaks down how it can happen:

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Fresh off the virtual press after the conference on Ukraine support: briefing for @wpr.bsky.social.

A stronger Europe - call it European strategic autonomy, European sovereignty, open strategic autonomy - is a strategic necessity, not an end in itself.

t.co/0CyDuJqhiY

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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This one aged well: I wrote it one year ago, but it's as least as relevant today as it was in early 2023. Whether you call it strategic autonomy, European sovereignty, or anything else: I still think abandoning this project is geopolitical surrender.

t.co/WdXwWC3bxH

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Borrell certainly has a point when he urges EU states to "stop exporting weapons & send them to Ukraine" - it is a political decision. But there is a lot of money at stake, so that a financial incentive (aka support) from the EU is needed.

www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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The European Peace Facility (EPF) has been critical to ensure arms supply to Ukraine.

Interesting: EPF might shift from reimbursement to member states for weapon for Ukraine to direct funding of arms contracts & financing joint production.

www.ft.com/content/9b72...

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Reposted by Gesine Weber

Thomas Wiegold's avatar Thomas Wiegold @twiegold.bsky.social
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"The United States on Friday carried out a series of military strikes against Iran-backed militants in half a dozen sites in Iraq and Syria, according to a U.S. Defense Department official, marking a sharp escalation of the war in the Middle East" - NY Times

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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"If Europe seems hesitant to endorse a judicial ruling from a court as important as the ICJ when it goes against an ally, it will further entrench a perception of double standards that Europe is already trying to combat."

Anthony Dworkin on the spot.

ecfr.eu/article/cour...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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This is one of the reports/ policy papers I dive into every year - it's a very valuable ressource for everyone working on European security and defence.

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Recap of all meetings related to Geopolitical Europe to follow this week: 🇪🇺🌍 Thursday, 1 Feb: Special European Council (MFF, Russia, Middle East, Versailles declaration) Friday, 2 Feb: EU-ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, EU-Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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The UK's evolving role in European security & defence is sometimes overlooked in the current debate.
@rgwhitman.bsky.social has an excellent recap, and why "a more formal relationship between the two in the areas of foreign, security and defence policy remains to be desired".🇬🇧

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Special European Council on Thursday, 1 Feb.

Agenda:
💸 MFF, incl. 50 bio support package for Ukraine
🇷🇺 Russia, incl. the question of frozen assets
🪖Security & defence: taking stock of Versailles
+ Middle East
+ enlargement

epthinktank.eu/2024/01/29/o....

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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One of the best papers I have read on European defence and NATO's Washington summit so far.
@danielfiott.bsky.social provides an impressive amount of details and concrete ideas that are well worth your time.

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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France launched "artillery coalition" with Ukraine.
- around 50 contributing states/ Ramstein Group
- five sub-clusters based on capacities
- aim: short-term support and building long-term air defence structures for Ukraine
- co-headed by France and US

www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/u...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Wrote a thing about the EU’s response to the situation in the Red Sea, and how flexible forms of defence cooperation could contribute:

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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If you consider where the EU is coming from, its support to Ukraine, and everything that has been done in terms of EU defence structures, is massive.

But: it is still far away from where it needs to be.

www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Disclaimer: as always, this thread is not exhaustive - only screenshots of yesterday's (Sunday, 14 January 2024) statements as found on websites.

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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🇫🇷🇬🇧🇩🇪 convergence/ divergence: - France and Germany refer to their One-China policy, UK does not - France most explicitly/ in most detail mentioning willingness to deepen ties with Taiwan - only Germany mentions its own involvement

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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UK: shortest statement (from national governments), but the only one explicitly mentioning that dialogue should be conducted "without the threat or use of force or coercion"
www.gov.uk/government/n...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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The elections in Taiwan this weekend were closely followed in European capitals 🇹🇼. How did the reactions from Paris, London, Berlin, and Brussels look like? 🇫🇷🇬🇧🇩🇪🇪🇺 Quick 🧵:

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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Couldn't agree more, particularly on the "before forming an opinion" part.

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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New UK 🇬🇧 military support package to Ukraine:
- £2.5 bio in 2024/2025 financial year (increase by £200 mio)
- incl. long-range missiles
- largest delivery of drones Ukraine has received so far from any country

www.gov.uk/government/n...

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Gesine Weber's avatar Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social
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I am surprised that the alarm bells only start ringing now in Europe - as if US elections were a surprise. There’s a lot to do.