I'd love someone to do the math but it's hard!
In any given stage you probably have at least 10 teams with sprint ambitions. But in a 21 stage race you probably only have about 6 sprint stages. So you need to survive the other stages to even have a chance of winning.
Right, like in the Lebron comparison he’s *both* durable enough to play in the NBA for 21 years *and* he’s an elite scorer with a 25.7 ppg average in year 21. Might be like Brady going to the AFC title 10 years straight.