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@green496.bsky.social
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You don’t have viral TikToks talking about how terrible Senators Rosen and Tester are, for example.
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green496.bsky.social@green496.bsky.social |
13 followers 61 following 54 posts
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@green496.bsky.social
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You don’t have viral TikToks talking about how terrible Senators Rosen and Tester are, for example.
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@green496.bsky.social
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It might be reflective of the fact that the brand of a generic Democrat is doing OK, but Biden has been ripped to shreds on social media and the mainstream media, dragging down his popularity (and only his popularity).
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@green496.bsky.social
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The political press in 2002 and 2003 was a complete joke.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yep, this is 100% my thoughts on Biden as well.
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@green496.bsky.social
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3 points is not a “massive” lead. The typical polling error is greater than 3 points. I’m not saying Biden is in a good spot - he’s not, but a lot can change between now and November.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Seems on-point for the dumbest, hackiest columnist at the post
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yes, because in certain states cruel policies like this are popular.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Well, Biden has been pretty effective at governing. But yes, Democrats do indeed hate themselves : )
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yeah, it’s hard to explain from first principles. The 2024 Republican primary polls almost uniformly drastically overstated Trump support as well.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Also. Trump is old. And his mental state is more deteriorated than Biden’s.
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@green496.bsky.social
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The joke is that the author of the linked op-ed actually did vote in 2020 and 2022
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@green496.bsky.social
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Wait, so you still subscribe to the NYT?
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@green496.bsky.social
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Uh, this seems like a pretty serious instance of journalistic misconduct.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yep. The changes Elon has made (most notably, boosting blue check replies and eliminating blocks) have made it very hard to control what you see on Twitter.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Man, the projection in that tweet is something to behold
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@green496.bsky.social
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It’s bad enough that the media is all-in on this, but what makes it worse is that Democrats are pushing this against Biden more than Trump! Yes, Biden’s debate performance was extremely concerning. But Trump says much worse things at essentially every event he does now!
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@green496.bsky.social
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The polling average seems to indicate a 1-2 point shift in Trump’s direction, putting the state of the race where it was… about 3 months ago
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@green496.bsky.social
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My entire political philosophy is anti-Republicanism. I vote for Democrats because they're not Republicans, and voting for Democrats is the only reliable way to block Republicans from taking power. It's just a nice coincidence that their policy views roughly align with mine.
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@green496.bsky.social
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There's probably truth in this, although there probably isn't enough time for the political media to settle on a coherent message against Harris and blast it out consistently enough for it to trickle down to the average American voter.
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@green496.bsky.social
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And in this case, their attempts to tank Biden may actually be successful!
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@green496.bsky.social
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Like many things in the world, people often latch onto what they want to see; it's possible people looking for signs of decline see it while others see nothing.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Oof. We had a Trump presidency. Hundreds of thousands of Americans were dead at the end of it!
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@green496.bsky.social
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Very excited to see this get appealed to the Supreme Court, where the Republican judges will rule that signing checks to cover up a hush money payment are indeed official acts!
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@green496.bsky.social
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The specific crime Trump was convicted of involved his signing checks to Cohen while he was president, which were to conceal the crime he committed before he won the 2016 election.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Haha, this is perfect
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@green496.bsky.social
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Pretty sure Trump and Republican judges could spin Trump personally murdering someone as a lawful use of his executive powers.
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@green496.bsky.social
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This is pretty good evidence, and I’m leaning towards Harris over Biden. But there probably is also a Biden supporter non-respondent effect in any recent polls. The big question is - what is the magnitude of this effect?
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@green496.bsky.social
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I liked Goldberg’s columns pre-2020, but as the pandemic progressed I found her columns to be more and more off putting. At this point the only NYT columnist I find consistently good is Jamelle Bouie.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yep. It’s incredible that Twitter is so much worse than it used to be, yet so many people still use it (I’m guilty of the latter, at least until I came to this site)
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@green496.bsky.social
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Same as 2016!
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@green496.bsky.social
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Even at the time, the media said almost nothing about this. Extremely disturbing that extrajudicial assassinations by police are OK, and doubly so if Trump actually ordered it.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yep, this is it. Unlimited immunity for Republican presidents, no immunity for Democratic presidents.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Though there was also plenty of panic for the first few months!
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@green496.bsky.social
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I don’t care for Biden as a campaigner, but as president he has been surprisingly good (the glaring exception being Israel/Palestine). Certainly better than I expected in Jan 2021.
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@green496.bsky.social
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From the standpoint of tracking surges and ebbs the wastewater Covid dashboard and flu surveillance dashboards are equivalent (CDC also has something similar for norovirus). Anyway, we’ll agree to disagree, just wanted to point out that CDC provides quite a bit of real-time surveillance.
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@green496.bsky.social
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In 2023, Covid-19 killed slightly more Americans than flu+pnemonuia combined. Jury’s obviously still out on 2024. The CDC doesn’t measure wastewater levels of flu, but it has equivalent graphs of flu incidence using positivity rates, with breakdown by geographic regions.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Rhinovirus doesn’t kill 50,000 Americans per year. Covid is about as dangerous as flu now; it makes sense to alert the public about when prevalence is high (though I disagree mass alerts are the way to do it).
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@green496.bsky.social
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Trying to prep Biden with random factoids is especially malpractice given the fact that Biden has a stutter. The brain’s processing power is limited!
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@green496.bsky.social
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Time to go play Elden Ring
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@green496.bsky.social
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Biden saying he would be transitional is not the same as saying he would serve one term.
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@green496.bsky.social
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This sounds like everyone I know at work, including myself, basically. And of course, let’s not even start on Trump, who is a continuous flow of gaffes, miscues, and general stupidity.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Not to mention - with more reps you get better at these public events. Incumbent presidents historically suck at first debates, likely because they’re out of practice!
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@green496.bsky.social
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Not saying Biden had a good debate, but yeah - political elites and pundits literally are unable to think the way swing and undecided voters do. Maybe many of them thought Trump did just as bad as Biden, if not worse!
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@green496.bsky.social
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“Signals to aides” is a far cry from publicly saying you’d only serve one term.
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@green496.bsky.social
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I dunno, my Democratic friends didn’t watch the debate, aren’t plugged into the socials, and as a result aren’t freaking the fuck out.
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@green496.bsky.social
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It’s such a clear case of being terminally online. No person so plugged into politics can reason about how a swing voter thinks about things. If Biden drops 5 points in the polls, then yeah, maybe panic. But until then… just wait for more data!
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@green496.bsky.social
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It’s hard to know how the swing voter is going to think about all this when both people did poorly, each in their own way.
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@green496.bsky.social
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Yep. The political media is such a failure.
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Matt Novak
@paleofuture.bsky.social
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"Since Texas’ ban on abortion went into effect, infant deaths in the state increased by nearly 13%, according to a new analysis published on Monday in JAMA Pediatrics. In the rest of the country, infant mortality increased less than 2% over the same period."
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@green496.bsky.social
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Another problem is that these paycheck to paycheck surveys don’t have standard definitions of what they mean, so the results are meaningless for comparison.
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