|
Zeke Hausfather@hausfath.bsky.social |
These new estimates are broadly in-line with others in the literature. For example, the IPCC AR6 assessed warming projections estimate that global temperatures will pass 1.5C in 2031 in a SSP2-4.5 scenario:
2 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
|
Andy Zhang
@arkbolt.bsky.social
[ View ] |
This rather suggests that carbon budgets are more in line with Lamboll et al's update: www.nature.com/articles/s41..., rather than the budgets presented in SR1.5. 250 Gt left in Jan 2023 approximates to a 1.5C passing in 2030 or 2031.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Zeke Hausfather
@hausfath.bsky.social
[ View ] |
@copernicusecmwf.bsky.social, using a linear regression over the past 30 years, finds a slightly later date of 2033. The difference between the regression and climate models-based approaches reflect an expectation of modest near-term acceleration in models: cds.climate.copernicus.eu/apps/c3s/app...
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes