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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Next up: How Trump's Ukraine peace deal will solve climate change (if only they believed in it).
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James Cameron@jjjcameron.bsky.social |
71 followers 123 following 86 posts
Associate Prof of Modern North American History at the University of Oslo, Norway. Nuclear strategy and arms control.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Next up: How Trump's Ukraine peace deal will solve climate change (if only they believed in it).
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Judah Grunstein
@judah-grunstein.bsky.social
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Some initial thoughts on the UK elections. 1. It confirms once again that when a center-right party veers to the hard right to weaken the far right, it ends up doing the opposite. After purging moderates and going full-on wingnuts and fever swamp, the Tories got decimated by Reform, not Labour. 🧵
9 replies 77 reposts 263 likes
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Huge result for Labour, but Farage's Reform surge very concerning. In addition to 4 MPs, a lot of constituencies where Reform probably denied Tories victory. Populist politics mainstreamed.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Political news on election day is just "THE ELECTION IS HAPPENING." That's it.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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The Journal of Strategic Studies special issue on Norway & strategic stability in Europe that I co-edited w Kristin Ven Bruusgaard is out today!
Check out contributions from Karen-Anna Eggen, Ingeborg Bjur, Kristin, and me. Huge thanks to the JSS team. #NukeSky www.tandfonline.com/toc/fjss20/c...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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On reflection, I think I picked the wrong moment to rejoin social media.
1 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Very relaxing reading the news these days. Extremely 2016-2020.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Trump's status as a semi-coherent liar is so priced in that it's relegated to a perfunctory mention in most post-debate analyses. I don't see how Biden could realistically "win" one of these encounters, even if he were a much better performer.
0 replies 6 reposts 29 likes
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Honestly, we should have been preparing for this eventuality since Biden gave us a breathing space, but we haven't.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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House Dem: "We need an open convention, which would excite the American people unlike anything we have ever seen."
"Exciting" is one word for it. www.ft.com/content/4e2e...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Nobody can speak for Trump, because his "peace plan" exists only in his own head. If I had to guess, however, it would be something like this, but probably worse (more pressure for Ukraine to agree, limited aid after a ceasfire).
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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It's actually very difficult to weigh the recent Conservative PMs against each other. How do you evaluate the spectacular flameout of Truss vs. Cameron's austerity and Brexit? Tricky.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Some friends and I ranked Tory PMs of the past 14 years, and I reluctantly came to the same conclusion.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Cheers, will do!
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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It's great. Currently in the late 50s.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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I initially read "fewer young" as "forever young" and thought someone had invented a terrifying new age category.
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John Morrison
@localcelebrity.bsky.social
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Reminder that Aaron Swartz was facing 35 years in prison and financial devastation for trying to programmatically download and open the contents of JSTOR, which led to him taking his own life. But OpenAI is going to scrape all of academia and make billions by plagiarizing it.
31 replies 1772 reposts 3479 likes
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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I hope you are right, because we are relying on exactly that happening.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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The reality is that Europe has not fully come to terms with the idea of Trumpism as a permanent fixture of US politics.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Sorry to be a downer, but there is quite a big difference between saying you won't resort to nuclear weapons and saying you don't think you will have to resort to nuclear weapons. www.reuters.com/world/us-chi...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Was he PM at the time, though?
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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The most bizarre element of the O'Brien essay for me was his confident predictions for Trump 2's national security policy, many of which strained credulity. Fundamentally, how can anyone know what Trump plans to do?
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Who is Austria-Hungary, I guess Russia?
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Yes, I really don't think we can take any of this at face value.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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This is an incredibly detailed prospectus for a foreign policy that, the author admits, essentially exists only in Trump's head.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Either they are very confused about who their subscriber base is, or I am.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Who needs this in their inbox?
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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I wonder if Sunak had a strategy for this election at all, or whether he had just had enough and wanted out.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Nobody: NYT: Breaking news spam emails!
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Putin's demands are interesting inasmuch as they may represent the "deal" he hopes to extract with Trump's assistance. What will Europe do if Trump pressures Zelensky to sign up? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Excellent article by Odd Arne Westad on the parallels between the Anglo-German antagonism and US-China relations today. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/sleepw...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Interesting account of Ukraine-Russia peace talks that took place in the first months of Moscow's invasion. Security guarantees (incl US) without NATO membership was diplomatically artful, but practically impossible -- and even less likely now. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Pretty good example of how flexible the Western/non-Western dichotomy is. Brazilians can identify as Western, Turkey is Western when acting as a member of NATO. But here they are non-Western because not G7 members. www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/w...
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Stephen Schwartz
@atomicanalyst.bsky.social
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Today in 2002, President George W. Bush unilaterally withdrew the United States from the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty in order to rapidly “develop and deploy effective defenses against limited missile attacks … by rogue states armed with weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles.”
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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If status quo isn't clear (which is quite often), the difference between deterrence and compellence is highly subjective.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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I feel like if you're in Sunak's position and a journalist asks you if you experienced hardship as a kid, you just fess up and say you didn't, because anything you come up with will sound ridiculous.
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Dan O'Brien
@danopedia.bsky.social
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In Lib Dems elecions HQ, a campaign manager's phone buzzes. It's Ed Davey. The plan for tomorrow has changed.
2 replies 14 reposts 42 likes
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Cameron Hunter
@cameronhunter.bsky.social
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For those in Denmark this week, please join us to hear Andrew Futter's lecture on Survival in the Third Nuclear Age. June 12, 14:00. Register here: t.co/ooRHeLX3Nj
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Mary Dudziak
@marydudziak.bsky.social
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Heads up grad students & non-tenure track history teachers going to the SHAFR Conference this week: I am bringing copies of Making the Forever War to give away! 5/day, 1st come, 1st served. No advance reservations. Find me, introduce yourself & ask for a copy!
www.umasspress.com/978162534568...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Are the bomb group photos weird, or a healthy recognition of their collective objective?
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Congratulations! Space is the place, clearly!
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Thomas Cheney
@thomascheney.bsky.social
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Similar experience at BISA, situation bleak, dire even. International students perhaps deepest damage, those bridges have been burnt or are burning.
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Bleddyn Bowen
@bleddb.bsky.social
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Yes, it’s all any academic staff was really talking about in the sidelines of the BISA conference last week.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Interesting piece of information from Gideon Rachman's column on the diminishing power of Russia's nuclear threats. www.ft.com/content/cd91...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Needless to say, if that happens, then "2.5% GDP on defense when conditions allow" is not going to cut it.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Missing from this analysis of Starmer's commitment to the UK's nuclear deterrent: the not totally remote possibility that the next US admin will leave NATO and take its nuclear umbrella with it. www.theguardian.com/politics/art...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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I don't get it.
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Seems like Ukrainian attacks on Russian early-warning radars did not help their case re getting the Biden administration to ease restrictions on striking targets inside Russia with US systems. www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/u...
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social
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Good picture on the right -- someone should use it on the front cover of their book.
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