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Jonathan Ladd@jonmladd.bsky.social |
The first step to good election punditry and academic election research, which must be accepted at the outset or else good work is impossible, is that the median voting block is nothing like you. Your personal intuitions do not offer good guidance.
4 replies 18 reposts 97 likes
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Paul Rosenberg
@paulrosenberg.bsky.social
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The second step is that it's not a block, right? That it's more like a blob of blobs.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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PeoriaBummer
@peoriabummer.bsky.social
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Probably also best to realize that the median voter block is complicated and holds contradictory views. Pointing to one poll or focus group to justify your intuition is just cherry picking.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Eric Brown
@sophisteuein.bsky.social
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It should be obvious that you’re an outlier if you’re an elite-educated, well-paid resident of one of the most desirable areas in one of the most desirable cities. But maybe people like to think that “deep down, we are alike?”
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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A consequence of this is the need to discipline yourself to tie your assertions to evidence. As much as possible, avoid ever falling back on your own "common sense," because what seems logical to you may not apply to swing voters.
0 replies 3 reposts 24 likes