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Jonathan Ladd@jonmladd.bsky.social |
3095 followers 549 following 1088 posts
Political Scientist. Assoc Prof in the McCourt School and Dept of Government at Georgetown.
Scholar of public opinion, polling, and media effects.
Also occasionally a Marilynne Robinson stan account.
www.jonathanmladd.com/
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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I think there are no guarantees of success or failure with any strategy, including Biden staying in the race. Anyone who tells you they have a strategy they know for certain will work is wrong. But this is my best guess for what is best for the country.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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What I favor: Biden should make a statement in the East Room with Harris. He should say "I'm withdrawing from the race because I'm not certain I can serve a full 4 year term. I'm endorsing Harris and telling all my delegates to vote for her. She will continue my administration's policies."
3 replies 0 reposts 13 likes
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Pollcat, AKA Scott Keeter
@pollcat.bsky.social
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This week we released a new version of our short course “Public Opinion Polling Basics.” In six short lessons, I discuss why we have polls, how polls work, the challenges facing polls, what to look for in a poll, and more. A new lesson focuses on election polling. www.pewresearch.org/course/publi...
1 replies 6 reposts 3 likes
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Dan Murphy
@bungdan.bsky.social
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Presidential candidate who the far-right members of the Supreme Court just placed above the law tells voters how he will exercise his new powers.
26 replies 176 reposts 420 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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God bless those who are strategic, not egotistical, when engaging in politics.
1 replies 6 reposts 31 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Unlike some people, I don't think it's a problem with an easy or obvious solution. And I think it's possible Biden could still win if it came to that. But it is a problem.
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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The debate was very bad. I suspect it was most surprising to those who aren't heavy media consumers and were less aware of the Biden age discourse. I've had Dems tell me it made them feel horrible and they literally couldn't watch the whole thing.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Correct. It may or may not be wise for Biden to withdraw. But for the record, hypothetical match-ups are not good evidence of how well different candidates will actually perform. Popularity can change a lot in either direction when someone becomes a candidate for president.
3 replies 6 reposts 51 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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They know. They may lie about it, but they know. The "hypotheticals" already happened and are in progress.
2 replies 0 reposts 16 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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One thing you can't say about the 6 justice majority is that they can't imagine or think a hypothetical parade of horribles won't happen. That's not this case. The wolf is at the door. The litigant in this case is the person who already was president, attempted a coup and is a career criminal.
4 replies 12 reposts 49 likes
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Quinta Jurecic
@qjurecic.bsky.social
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let's do the seal team six hypo. president orders st6 to assassinate a political rival bc rival is a threat to national security. possible this is absolutely immune under pres's commander in chief power. if it's not, then it gets presumptive immunity (which may be absolute anyway)
10 replies 15 reposts 110 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Yeah, a side issue here is how few people know what crimes Watergate entailed. It wasn't just a break-in (even though committed judges could probably rationalize that official as well).
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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The Ford pardon of Nixon would have been totally unnecessary. A million other actions and arguments in American history assume presidents aren't immune. It's a totally new idea, nowhere in text or American tradition. Arguably the least originalist major SCOTUS decision in American history.
3 replies 36 reposts 189 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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constitutional lawyers use your fucking brain challenge www.politico.com/news/2024/07...
133 replies 330 reposts 2152 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Tough week. At least it's Friday.
2 replies 3 reposts 22 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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From April 👇👇👇
0 replies 14 reposts 39 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Legal pundits over time Dec 1, 2023: SCOTUS will reject Trump's appeal on an expedited basis Dec 22, 2023: They are letting the DC Circuit handle it to not even dignify it. Feb 28, 2024: The are taking the case on appeal but will completely reject the claim. June: SCOTUS says Trump is your God/King
5 replies 208 reposts 605 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Thread
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ryan cooper
@ryanlcooper.com
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"the only person under campaign finance law who would be able to seamlessly continue to use [Biden's] money for the general election is his ticket mate, Kamala Harris." prospect.org/power/2024-0...
8 replies 18 reposts 67 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Me: "Mr President, I'd like to give you a bribe and commit some treason together." President: "Hold on, lets move this conversation to the Oval Office and bring in some White House aids so we are sure all this gets immunity."
5 replies 88 reposts 348 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Potentially controversial: I'm just not impressed by the dissent, even though it's well- written. If these justices understood the dire situation and that it means we need new tactics, Kagan and Sotomayor would have resigned. Being satisfied with great dissents is one reason we got into this mess.
8 replies 1 reposts 12 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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More of this is needed.
3 replies 3 reposts 12 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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The text plain meaning, the original intention, and the understanding of all involved in American history and tradition is that presidents are subject to the law when out of office. Lots of American history makes no sense unless everyone understood presidents were not immune.
1 replies 1 reposts 10 likes
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Spencer Ackerman
@attackerman.bsky.social
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I don't know how many years of my life I've been writing Close-Guantanamo-Before-It's-Too-Late stories and while this would be a highly ironic end for Liz "The al-Qaeda Seven" Cheney the joke won't be funny for very long
12 replies 111 reposts 407 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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It turns out Ford didn't need to pardon Nixon. Does he need to give back his Profiles in Courage Award now?
1 replies 1 reposts 11 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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We can save the country by electing a Democrat in Nov. But not Joe Biden. And his replacement has to be exactly who I have in mind---definitely not anyone else. Why is everyone so stupid and not following my easy plan?
8 replies 8 reposts 69 likes
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Seth Masket
@smotus.bsky.social
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Bill Clinton must feel like a real schmuck for doing that plea bargain
17 replies 60 reposts 590 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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What are the words of the Constitution anyway? Why follow that when I could make up something new? bsky.app/profile/jaco...
0 replies 0 reposts 12 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Conservative parties that felt more confident about their ability to win power in the future, like the Tories in the UK, shunned the far right.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Ziblatt argues that the main determining factor was actually how secure major center right parties felt in their future electoral prospects. It was center right parties that were weaker and doubted they couldn't win power again at the ballot box who allied with authoritarians.
2 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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A very common historical scenario is that the former center-right supports authoritarians to take over government when they decide they prefer that to rule by the major parties of the left, and see the authoritarians as the only way to block that. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conserv...
1 replies 9 reposts 25 likes
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David Noll
@david.noll.org
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they're so close
4 replies 16 reposts 67 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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It's hard to process. It will probably take a generation to overturn. Possibly much much longer, if ever. But there's no way around working to overturn this. We've just been given a massive new challenge we didn't have yesterday.
23 replies 96 reposts 459 likes
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David Noll
@david.noll.org
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There are few things in the U.S. Reports as offensive to the rule of law as John Roberts' reference to "congressional statutes." Those statutes are "the supreme Law of the Land" according to the fucking Supremacy Clause.
1 replies 7 reposts 35 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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As I've said before, pundits always want John Roberts to be some responsible father figure. But this is pure projection. Not based on any evidence about him.
4 replies 5 reposts 57 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Source: "Although he has made no explicit statement on Roe v. Wade, the leading abortion case, and indeed told the Senate Judiciary Committee that he had never discussed it, most experts consider him anti-abortion." www.nytimes.com/1991/10/16/u...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Psych!!!
2 replies 3 reposts 14 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Clarence Thomas, who was in Yale Law School when Roe was decided, and lived his whole career in conservative legal circles, testified that he had never in his life discussed Roe with anyone. I'm not a fan of nominees refusing to answer questions about their philosophy, but at least it's not lying.
4 replies 3 reposts 20 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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This isn't a decision we can work around, even though it's very tempting to want to think that. Overturning it will be extremely hard and possibly not completed in our lifetimes, and will require legal but outside the box thinking---like justices strategically retiring early and expanding the court.
2 replies 1 reposts 12 likes
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Danny Rubin
@dannyrubin.bsky.social
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This. Roberts pretending that the dissent is “fear mongering… hypotheticals,” when it’s about an actual coup attempt.
4 replies 52 reposts 303 likes
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Paul Waldman
@paulwaldman.bsky.social
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One of the cool things about this new Supreme Court ruling is that since you take bribes in exchange for "official acts" pretty much by definition, the president is now free to take bribes! I wonder if that's something Donald Trump might take advantage of.
3 replies 25 reposts 95 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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If only we could be more practical and less consumed by our political ideologies like.... checks notes.... French people.
2 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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We can save the country by electing a Democrat in Nov. But not Joe Biden. And his replacement has to be exactly who I have in mind---definitely not anyone else. Why is everyone so stupid and not following my easy plan?
8 replies 8 reposts 69 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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When Maher started his show, then called Politically Incorrect, in the 1990s, the premise was that Maher & other celebs who all know little about it commenting on politics. It's now basically the same show but the premise has gradually evolved into Maher being presented as some type of expert/guru.
4 replies 2 reposts 26 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Sounds great. I don't have a well-laid-out constitutional philosophy, but to the extent that I do it tends to be "liberal originalist" as well. So I often like what Amar has to say.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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The 14th Amendment says if you were involved in an insurrection you can't be president. SCOTUS said they won't allow anyone to enforce that because of reasons they made up. The Constitution doesn't say the president is immune from criminal law. SCOTUS decided he is because of reasons they made up.
73 replies 1107 reposts 3703 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Congrats to all the profs at elite law schools who loudly vouched for John Roberts and Neil Gorsuch when they were nominated. Hope you placed your students in some nice clerkships.
16 replies 232 reposts 1229 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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Tough week. At least it's Friday.
2 replies 3 reposts 22 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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I'm not scolding anyone. But the statement I posted is true.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Jonathan Ladd
@jonmladd.bsky.social
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We may all be dead by the time today's decision is overturned, if it ever is. But this is the message for the future.
1 replies 4 reposts 38 likes