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Kerry

@kerrybrowne.bsky.social

35 followers 58 following 87 posts

Public Policy mostly. Former Educator. MA-raised. Dual citizen🇮🇪🇺🇸. Tweets are my own. (he/him).

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executive editor, barbell quarterly's avatar executive editor, barbell quarterly @swolecialism.bsky.social
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a thing to remember, in all of this horror, is that these are not the actions of a political party that is confident it represents the will of the people, and who is currently out of power and enslaved to a deeply flawed avatar. the struggle is not over and they have not won

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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Throwing away House Majorities, giving us despicable DCCC heads, electing the cynical faux-Democrats or even a naked xenophobe and racist like Latimer. New York really has it all.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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New York really never fails to disappoint politically

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Michael Tae Sweeney's avatar Michael Tae Sweeney @mtsw.bsky.social
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Studies repeatedly show that congestion pricing's popularity is lowest *right before it gets implemented,* recovering and quickly becoming popular once citizens start to see the benefits of it, so of course NY Dems are committed to staying in that "almost implemented" period as long as possible

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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò's avatar Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social
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old enough to remember the breathless litigation over whether or not it was credible that the IDF may have possibly bombed 1 (one) hospital

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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If your LA public safety survey asks a bunch of questions about homeless people and none about reckless drivers outside of DUIs right after it was announced more people have been killed in LA due to traffic violence than homicides you should delete that survey and start over.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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That WaPo article is how political polling and reporting *should* be done, but it typically isn't, and it's a bummer.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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However, the WaPo reporting is about a pollster doing a retrospective that *verified* if those polled actually voted, and looked at how Clinton-leaning non-voters boosted Trump's numbers, and latter just gets that dynamic backwards, arguing that a RV edge for Trump is better than a LV edge for Biden

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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The AJC article (which I'm not going to link to for reasons that'll become obvious), curiously, tries to argue this is a more informative poll because the previous poll "won't capture" non-voters because it was an LV poll (duh, that is the point of a likely voter poll).

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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It was odd imo that the poll was for registered voters (RV), not likely voters (LV), given the previous UGA/AJC poll was LV. Most pollsters don't go back to RV polls after starting Likely Voter polls, so I looked at all GA pollsters and they tend to follow that trend, so why did UGA do this?

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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Won't get that nuance from coverage reporting on that poll, even from the AJC. They allude to 2020 but won't note he was down by the same margin at this point. Gloomy referrals to "dismal" job approval numbers and cherry-picked quotes from voters, but, ofc, no integorration of what he's doing wrong.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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This is a race still entirely within Biden's control.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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This is basically where Biden was at when he went on to win: -303 days out from the 2024 election, Biden's down by 8 -319 days out from the 2020 election, Biden's down by 7. And he won by a narrow margin, sure, but that's a movement of 7.3 pts. Romney was up by 17 at this point and only won by 8.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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And it's biggest miss is what most mediocre pollsters get, off by 5.9, so, yes, not great there's any high-quality poll, even just one, saying Biden is losing to Trump by 8. But there's more to the story.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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The pollster UGA's School of Public and International Affairs, has polled GA statewide races for years, and they have an excellent track record: outside 2014, they haven't been off by more than 3.1pts, and it's usually less. That is impressive in an era that puts impossible demands on pollsters.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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RE: The Atlantic Journal-Constitution/UGA poll that has Trump by +8: There's a lot to be scared by if you're on the Biden campaign, but peel away at the layers most political media won't bother with, and a very uncertain picture emerges. A thread:

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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Trump basically gifted his opponents an achievable, measurable goal (denying Trump a 30 point victory) in a primary state frequently discussed less by who won and who beat expectations, with a media culture that desperately wants a close race, and Trump's strongest opponents still failed miserably.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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Oh for sure but specifically I mean the horserace journalists could at least rely on Americans knee-jerk skepticism of polls to imply they were wrong and the race close, but now they have results to argue against lol

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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The coverage is going to be insufferable if Trump actually hits his goal of winning Iowa by 30 pts.

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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I choose to believe this cat is pro-fareless transit

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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At the Clippers game and apparently t-shirt guns aren't enough: they have t-shirt mortars

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David Roberts's avatar David Roberts @volts.wtf
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Has *anyone* in US media done any reckoning or self-reflection about the fact that they got caught up in a bogus moral panic driven by big retailers? Will anyone do anything differently the next time around?

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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Pretty unsettling how acceptable it is to just drive on the wrong side of the road because drivers here are too impatient to get to the left turn lane at their leisure

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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(Deleted an earlier version of this where I included the wrong screen cap. Included one referencing right-wingers in the US trying to defend right-winger rioters in Dublin [Ireland, not CA] central and clipped some trending items.)

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Kerry's avatar Kerry @kerrybrowne.bsky.social
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These are not incongruous stances, and I have a hard time believing White did that by mistake (he also implied Lee tied Schiff for an endorsement when in fact Lee beat Schiff). I shouldn't be able to debunk this while eating lunch on my break. As sloppy as it is dishonest.

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