The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter

Sharon Kuruvilla @sharonk.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:27 UTC

We taught this British pollster to get on the phone with Wisconsin swing voters and he hanged himself

0 replies 3 reposts 43 likes

The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:26 UTC

picture one dude, wearing the stack of his demographic weights on his back like Atlas

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:25 UTC

he's doing an ABC interview this weekend and i think good morning america

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:20 UTC

not quite, just that trump is winning 2020 nonvoters by 50/28

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:18 UTC

either the polls are right, and everything else is wrong, or everything else is right and the polls are cooked.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:14 UTC

Guess we'll find out!

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:12 UTC

Thank you 🥰

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:11 UTC

Bring 👏back 👏 haruspicy 👏

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:08 UTC

Careful. You're sounding like a coping poll denialist unskewer now

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:07 UTC

Remember, Nate thinks that Black voters have moved R+35 in two years

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:05 UTC

A guy named Nate who works for the new york times says it's gonna happen

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:05 UTC

Why

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:04 UTC

Yes

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:03 UTC

They really mean it this time, they're gonna show up for big man T

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:03 UTC

We can just weight it! You can weight your way out of anything!

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:02 UTC

He's doing extended TV interviews over the weekend

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:59 UTC

sure! why not!

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:58 UTC

the new york times.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:57 UTC

does this sound like a plausible theory of the electorate to you

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:55 UTC

wrong nate. im talking shit about the floppy haired nate, not the bald nate

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:41 UTC

wrong nate. silver doesn't have hair

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:37 UTC

53% Black voters for Biden would imply that Black voters have swung R+35 since 2022.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:36 UTC

oh right. Nate says that Black voters have moved R+38 in two years.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:34 UTC

ah! but don't forget! there's the sampling bias, and then there's the Nate's Guess About The November Electorate, which is of course all that a Likely Voter Model is

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:32 UTC

call it cope, call it unskewing, whatever. that's what nate says is gonna happen. nate says that Black voters have swung R+40 since 2020. you can believe him or not.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:31 UTC

a floppy haired guy named nate, who unfortunately runs a lot of the pollcels of the democratic party, has consistently predicted that nonwhite 18-29s have swung R+40 in four years, and we're all living in the discourse he has created

6 replies 8 reposts 91 likes

The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:24 UTC

in this analogy stormy daniels (I guess?) chokes trump out with a chain at a critical moment?

4 replies 0 reposts 36 likes

The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:23 UTC

do we think that nonwhite 18-29s are going to have an exactly average response rate here, among that contingent of called people

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:20 UTC

Black voters have moved forty points to the republicans in four years. sure, nate. why not.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:16 UTC

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:13 UTC

lol. lmao.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:12 UTC

why should i bother

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:07 UTC

this will be, fundamentally, unchanged from every single other poll this year, and you can belive it's a plausible reflection of the outcome in november or not. oh actually let me add one more thing: nyt/sienna will probably show trump narrowly winning women. maybe even white women

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:06 UTC

calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:57 UTC

they are horrendously unpopular right now (scotus)

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:39 UTC

like, i haven't done a thorough survey, but in general i think i'm right. and it's like... if you didn't predict desantis would crash and burn immediately, how much of a politics knower can you be, really

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Nov 15, 2023 at 17:08 UTC

shout out to all my homies holding on by like two fingers

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:37 UTC

you really kinda want to ask them why, don't you? I do. but i never know how to bring it up

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:33 UTC

not blocked, deleted post. turned out to be wrong

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:32 UTC

it does strike me that a lot of the people certain that biden should drop out, that trump is unstoppable, etc, are also the same people who thought desantis would cruise to the nomination.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:30 UTC

i don't want to read too much into this sort of thing, you know? you don't want to go all Peggy Noonan about it. but at the same time, somebody *took them down*. i think trump's juice is more gone than a lot of people are willing to credit.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:21 UTC

i fully recognize that those things are meaningless but also recognize that a lot of places I knew, for absolute certain, had trump signs up at the beginning of the year have taken them down

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:19 UTC

it's not even clear the campaign has a lead lawyer, which is something you *need*

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:18 UTC

for clarity, i'm deleting the Flynn-VP posts because it's a hoax. Swolecialism Posting Services, LLC, dba Swolecialism Industries, apologizes for the error.

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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter @swolecialism.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:14 UTC

He extremely is not. He'd be the easiest maniac in the world to hammer.

0 replies 0 reposts 19 likes