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Koenfucius

@koenfucius.bsky.social

260 followers 112 following 1985 posts

Accidental behavioural economist
koenfucius.substack.com


Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“Whether you run into a bee or a wasp, you’re probably better off with no sting at all.” Entomologist Justin Schmidt, who has been stung more often than you’ve had hot dinners, advises how to avoid being stung, and what to do if you are: buff.ly/3I2K7F0

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Do you *have* to speak your mind?
@michaelhannon.bsky.social levels some well-thought-through challenges at Hrishikesh Joshi’s argument and introduces a good dollop of nuance: buff.ly/4aTULJR HT
@danwphilosophy.bsky.social

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Even for WEIRD people, there’s more to psychological wellbeing than what we typically mean by 'happiness', research suggests: buff.ly/4bTshBj

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Blogged: Voting as decision making - elections are a striking illustration of many aspects that typify human decision making:

buff.ly/4ebeuYc

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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People feel less distress for future others’ suffering than for those in the present, and this empathy decline forms a present-biased psychological obstacle impeding future-oriented prosocial behaviour, research suggests: buff.ly/3KASzw1

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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New research has categorized nudges according to 6 cognitive mechanisms through which they may influence our choices—attention, perception, memory, effort, and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation: buff.ly/3X84fOj

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“Sooner or later, the cardiologist and the neurologist will have to be replaced by a 'network-ologist'.” The potential of Network Medicine: buff.ly/4bTjfEo

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Never mind the flying cars we never got—where are the robot dogs?
@paulbloomatyale.bsky.social explores why, despite some clear advantages over their flesh and bone equivalents, robot pets are not the success they were expected to be: buff.ly/4aL4DFy

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Motivation abandoned you? “Skinner’s Law, (after B. F. Skinner, yes) can help by making the pain of not doing a task greater than the pain of doing it—or by making the pleasure of doing it greater than the pleasure of not doing it: buff.ly/3UM8Na4

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Experiment aversion is a complex affair (as are many behavioural phenomena).
It does not appear to generalize: buff.ly/3Rha9Zx
…or does it?

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Lying is immoral, except when it’s moral. Interesting research on what drives our remarkable flexible morality: buff.ly/3DWdyHm

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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A "positive error climate" in class, which recognizes errors as opportunities to learn, is an important part of the learning process. A longitudinal analysis in primary school suggests it can also aid the teacher–student relationship: buff.ly/3ReO0v2

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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60 days before the election, 17%-29% of voters have not decided how they will vote, reducing to 12% the day before; the role of televised debates in this process is negligible and insignificant, research by @clpennec.bsky.social and
@vinpons.bsky.social suggests:
buff.ly/4aRWLST

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Music is a powerful instrument to counteract age-related cognitive decline and low mood—here are five examples how: buff.ly/49ilL69

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Objects can extract energy from their environment and come to life, writes @sespagnolie.bsky.social, as these ‘dancing’ raisins in a simple kitchen experiment reveal: buff.ly/3X8y3uc

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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His experiments didn’t seek to test a hypothesis, but to show thinking was not what psychologists—including himself—assumed it to be, students wrote in Peter Wason’s obituary. He created the hugely popular Wason selection task—this is its story: buff.ly/3ZOUT7R

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Collecting stuff is one thing; hoarding stuff is quite another: buff.ly/3Ve1wjE

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Is the strength of a nudge—it works unconsciously—also its weakness? Research finds nudged behaviour and choices tend to peter out more quickly than the same behaviour /choices if elected deliberately: buff.ly/3VuoswC

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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How good is your evidence and how would you know? Interesting paper digging into the importance of having reliable evidence to shape and update our beliefs, and the profound difficulty of actually ascertaining its reliability: buff.ly/3X9WozD

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“The associations between time poverty and various well-being outcomes are meagre, with very few actually approaching moderate strength”—an overhyped concept, yet perhaps a case for better time management strategies: buff.ly/4e7Ng4I

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“For prostate, breast, colorectal, esophageal, and head/neck cancers, the survival benefit associated with marriage was larger than the published survival benefit of chemotherapy.”
Remarkable research (n= 734,889) result:
buff.ly/3wTnb8R

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Lying can destroy our self-esteem—from the very moment the lie is told, and continue to do so when we recall it, regardless of whether it was detected, writes
@ocklenburg.bsky.social: buff.ly/48PkEd9

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“By 2029, we’ll need to add a ‘negative leap’ second—a day where the clocks go from 11:59 and 58 seconds directly to midnight, skipping 11:59:59—to allow our timekeeping devices to catch up with Earth”—how climate change is messing with how we keep time: buff.ly/4aMm1JZ

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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How the 18th-century ‘probability revolution’ fueled the casino gambling craze: buff.ly/3yJ8llU

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Another cool story from Dave Trott
that generalizes really well beyond the advertising world—remember that meaning and value are in the eye of the beholder, not yours, and that it’s worth speaking to all beholders, not just the ones that behold like you: buff.ly/4c6lZxS

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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What’s behind the Additive Bias—preferring adding to removing something when needing to improve an object/idea/situation? Research finds people tend to assign a positive valence to additive concepts, seen as safer and more functional than subtractive ones:
buff.ly/3VbYZGC

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“One objection to cynical stories is that they are wrong. It is often a good objection”, writes
@danwphilosophy.bsky.social
—when is cynicism warranted, and when is it not? Thought provoking stuff: buff.ly/3x8XuRy

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Could AI help predict which patients might respond to a given psychiatric treatment? Not in a general way—algorithms used successfully to predict patient outcomes in a specific clinical trial, did not generalize for different trials: buff.ly/3X6DF84

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Women are significantly more generous than men in a high powered Dictator Game experiment—after controlling for confounding factors, they transfer 7.5 % points more of their endowment than males:

buff.ly/3X48OsZ

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Wisdom from the old:
cognitively healthy centenarians appear to possess genetic variations that may protect against Alzheimer’s disease, according to new research: buff.ly/3QD421D

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Never mind what the Romans did *for us*—what did they do *with this*? A finely crafted, ancient, dodecahedron-shaped bronze object expands the collection—it’s the 33rd discovered in the UK—but not the archeologists’ understanding: buff.ly/3Qs8U9K

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Supercool by randomness
Even though we generally don’t like randomness, everything personalized to what some algorithm assumes is our preference, as is rife in the digital world, is much worse for us. Embrace serendipity! buff.ly/4acB93k

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Better read up on the actual tenets of epicurean philosophy before you visit that new ‘Epicurean Fine Dining’ place: buff.ly/4c05oeU

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Is technophobia actually more a case of status quo bias? So it seems: buff.ly/4e2gJNj

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Research by @essematta.bsky.social et al suggests the truth effect—here: repeated statements about unknown others—is unaffected by the political (in)congruence between source and recipient, though it is stronger for positive than negative statements: buff.ly/4e3cUHL HT @oliviercorneille.bsky.social

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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The key to breaking bad habits is to identify the corresponding habit loops and identify the triggers that cue the unwanted behaviour: buff.ly/3Rdb11w

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Costly punishment of unfair actors is an intriguing phenomenon. Research with a modified Ultimatum game suggests some people choose to remain unaware of any unfairness, in order to avoid costly punishment: buff.ly/3Vq41AR

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Jupiter’s moon Io is the solar system’s most volcanically active body, and has been spewing lava abs sulphur for 4.5 billion years. Now NASA data have revealed a 200km long lava lake: buff.ly/3Ksu0Bu

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Arguably one of the best songs ever written—its harmonies were (and are) instrumental in my own musical development—is Glenn Campbell’s Wichita Lineman, here performed by Jimmy Webb, who wrote it, on solo piano.
Music AIs have a *long* way to go!…
buff.ly/4bXaBVr

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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As the competition in a local market increases, craft breweries tend to *cut* advertising—a tactic that might be useful for other companies—because the information it gives might entice consumers to research competitive products, and trigger price erosion: buff.ly/3V0UM8K

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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By some measures, Brexit has not been an economic success. David Ricardo might have said “told you so” to anyone who is regretting the move, as he introduced the notion of comparative advantage: buff.ly/3R8K2UC

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Research seeks to establish any discrepancy between folk understanding of inflation and the policies to mitigate its effects, finding significant discrepancies with economic theory and a belief no trade-offs must be made to control it:
buff.ly/454aXXv

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Economics is often said to be (and make people) selfish. The evidence suggests the contrary: weighing up costs and benefits—the foundation of Economics—is all about compassion for who will feel the consequences of a policy: buff.ly/4bEt9cT

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Meta-analysis suggests links between Dark Triad personality traits and personal values: self-enhancement and openness to change (positive); self-transcendence and conservation (negative), with different traits’ value profiles:
buff.ly/3KvGVlO via @giladfeldman.bsky.social

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Why does ‘sorry’ seem to be the hardest word? buff.ly/4eiTEq3

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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As many will have experienced, sensing a need to pee is not just a full bladder (and vice versa). The basic urge is surprisingly complex and can go awry as we age—here’s how and why: buff.ly/4e56ckp

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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To optimize the conversion of physical inputs into outputs, you must allocate your resources so they are used as efficiently as possible. To optimize happiness, you must allocate your *attention* so it is used most efficiently: buff.ly/3VnCaRD

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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What determines the subjects of our dreams? They are mostly populated with actual memories, more recent ones in the earlier part of the sleep, and older ones later on, it seems: buff.ly/3yJkfMw

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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Before probability theory, people did not think mathematically about the frequency of random events, yet the odds in ancient Chinese games of chance appear designed to ensure a moderate house advantage. How come? Cultural evolution: buff.ly/3KrVbwe

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Koenfucius's avatar Koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social
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“It’s not just encoding that can help your memory as you age, but also your feeling that you will be able to get that new information stored in a place where it will be findable”, so don’t give up on your memory as you get older: buff.ly/42NLNLB

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