Matt Grossmann

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 11, 2024 at 00:53 UTC

Lead Trump campaign operatives are hoping Biden stays, believing polls showing their best options are among young minority voters, slowly confronting Trump vulnerabilities, & refocusing away from broad voter contact toward low propensity Trump voters:
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 22:15 UTC

Polarization likely means polls stay within a modest range. But also cuts the other way. If this degree of negative media coverage, visible faltering, & internal dissent only moves polls 2-3 points, what would be required to move them the ~5 points toward Biden that he now needs?

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 10, 2024 at 19:43 UTC

How Think Tanks Drive Polarization & Policy

Project 2025 is just the latest step in the long rise of partisan think tanks; they helped polarize Congress, replacing non-partisan expertise

New #ScienceOfPolitics with @ejfagan.bsky.social on The Thinkers

www.niskanencenter.org/how-think-ta...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:36 UTC

precincts where Trump was popular experienced large relative declines in turnout in the 2020 Georgia runoff, possibly due to his allegations of electoral fraud
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:24 UTC

Racial resentment & sexism influenced evaluations of Kamala Harris in 2020 above & beyond party identification & ideology, but not considerably more than for Biden, Obama, & Clinton
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:21 UTC

Americans support a wide range of redistributive policy packages—as long as the wealthy are footing the bill or the costs are hidden. But when taxes are born by larger groups, support declines. Republican opinions are divided by class
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:15 UTC

Congressional party electoral performance is based on public opinion of the president & the ideological policy mood of the public, not degree of partisan competition
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:04 UTC

In-person shareholder meetings during COVID were more likely for companies that have Republican CEOs & for companies with headquarters located in jurisdictions that vote Republican
www.nber.org/papers/w32652

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 02:02 UTC

Elevated Republican inflation expectations & news responsiveness led to increased inflation
www.nber.org/papers/w32650

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 09, 2024 at 01:59 UTC

The death of a top donor significantly decreases a congressional candidate's chances of being elected in the current & future election cycles & affects the legislative activities of elected candidates
www.nber.org/papers/w32649

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 08, 2024 at 10:24 UTC

the incumbency advantage largely disappeared as an important factor in election outcomes for US House & Senate as partisanship grew in importance. But candidate quality differentials still can matter, particularly in the Senate, as they did in 2022
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 06, 2024 at 13:57 UTC

policy changes are more likely to reflect preferences of the educated as well as the rich, across 43 countries. Educational inequalities are larger & concentrated in cultural issues, producing a bias toward cosmopolitan socio-cultural policy
academic.oup.com/ser/advance-...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 10:29 UTC

Emphasizing American national identity, including during July 4th & the Olympics, can reduce partisan animosity
goodauthority.org/news/july4th...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 01:30 UTC

Even if Dems do well in 2024, they are unlikely to have a trifecta with a committed majority willing to play reform hardball for many years. The constraints established by the Supreme Court are likely to stand, limiting liberal policymaking & empowering Republican presidents.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 02, 2024 at 01:29 UTC

Even if Trump was on pace to win pre-debate (& even if another Dem would have done ~same), the accepted narrative of a Trump win is likely to be that Dems blew it by renominating Biden. Voters might not remember the debate, but it will stick out as an off ramp Dems didn't take.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 30, 2024 at 01:50 UTC

The debate & after-debate coverage are also likely to further diminish interest in a campaign that was already depressing & uninteresting to many Americans, possibly further reducing viewership for the conventions & any 2nd debate.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 14:47 UTC

The legal & policy wins of the corporate & conservative establishment do not make the cultural & populist Republican turn a farce, but they should temper claims that Trumpism fundamentally transformed conservative goals. Mutual accommodation is made easier by close 2-party polarized competition

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 14:46 UTC

Anti-corporate rhetorical moves of Republicans under Trump are real, enabled by changes in business & among voters. They have sometimes been backed up with real bills/policy. But traditional tax & regulatory party agendas, often with more $ implications, are ~intact & polarizing.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 14:24 UTC

Conservative policy advances (rather than just stopping liberal expansions) are rare. The congressional record under Trump was quite mixed, with a big conservative win limited to taxes, & the administrative record included lots of policy failures. But court control has been very impactful.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 14:24 UTC

The conservative legal movement was part of the Republican establishment brought in earliest to Trump. It made peace near completely & has been rewarded with quick generational advances, not just for social activists but also for economic conservatives & their own long-term power

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 29, 2024 at 12:23 UTC

The scholarly backlash against "White Rural Rage" has stimulated a conscious popularization of rural studies in political science & a recognition that scholars from rural areas bring distinct perspectives:
www.nytimes.com/2024/06/29/b...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 18:49 UTC

Constitutional reform also typically requires large long-running majorities. This book considers all kinds of unrealistic Dem hardball scenarios but still projects long-term conservative dominance of the Supreme Court:
global.oup.com/academic/pro...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 18:32 UTC

With conservative control of Supreme Court projected for decades & no reason to expect Dem Senate dominance soon, will be substantial constraints on liberal policymaking even under Dem presidents. Constrained Biden agenda & Trump COVID agenda may be liberal high points for years

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 18:13 UTC

Although strong presidential performance typically helps for downballot races, the personal specificity of voters' Biden concerns may enable some Dems to separate their personal images. And independent of actual performance, voter expectations that Trump would win would help Dems

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 18:06 UTC

Despite everything, Twitter is still where narratives congeal across media, activists, & politicos, quickly & with the ability to influence other media. Last night, it was within minutes of the debate start. Bluesky & threads are not close to real-time alternatives to its role.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 18:05 UTC

But still matters how liberals respond. So far, student loan decision just made them try again through different means. Still limits given the relative docket size of courts & the admin state, as well as standing issues, but they have some broad blunt tools & venue shopping

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 18:05 UTC

Weakening of administrative deference & the major questions doctrine will likely combine to severely limit unilateral policy actions of (especially Democratic) presidents, setting the threat & expectation that any significant liberal admin policy change will be overturned

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 28, 2024 at 12:43 UTC

Debates can matter, usually by stimulating clear media narrative that even those who did not watch it hear clearly. Liberal media & commentariat are not at all mirror images of conservative side, including having more ties to neutrality & self-criticism Candidate traits matter

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 14:09 UTC

Public opinion moved thermostatically in favor of immigration under Trump & against it under Biden. But opinions on race moved leftward under Trump but held steady under Biden, in part because salience of race has declined dramatically since 2020
democracyfund.org/idea/pushed-...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 12:25 UTC

Public debate expectations are higher for Trump, which may make the bar easier to reach for Biden (though they could also make commentators or voters more attentive to Biden mistakes or slowness):
www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/u...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 11:43 UTC

Wikipedia discusses Democratic officials more positively than Republican officials, in sentiment & with emotional language:
manhattan.institute/article/is-w...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 11:38 UTC

Less attractive people do not live as long as those rated in the middle, but there is no survival advantage to being the most attractive (based on high school yearbook photos):
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social [ View ] Jun 27, 2024 at 11:32 UTC

post-debate commentary can change voter views as much as the debate itself, as narratives about who won congeal:
www.niskanencenter.org/how-presiden...

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