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Matt Waters@mwwaters.bsky.social |
23 followers 86 following 262 posts
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Notwithstanding the primary results, it’s Biden’s prerogative to step off the ticket if he wishes, just as he could resign to make Harris president (NOT saying he should). Gerald Ford didn’t even win an election as VP. Every VP who has taken over didn’t win an election as President.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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United in terms of every last Democrat supporting Harris, no. But the delegates were selected to nominate Joe Biden and Harris would be nominated if Biden wishes them to do so. Harris’s name will be on the ballots as operation of law.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Within the four corners of the constitution, there are many levers ultimately requiring only a majority to overrule court rulings. It’s still tough to get a majority in three chambers to agree to do this. But the worse the rulings are the more movement there is (I.e. after Dred Scott).
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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This is dumb to do voluntarily. Whatever is done with Biden’s delegates should be up to Biden before they’re released. But it’s weird that, if anything did happen to a new nominee after primary, but before VP pick, either party has to do something like this.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Sorry for all that. Long story, short, super-premium bonds are better as a debt ceiling hack. Either hack will be overturned anyway by SC on “major questions doctrine.”
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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This is all make-believe of course in de facto terms today. Where a $1tr coin would *actually* matter is that it constrains this $1tr funding to only be reserves or RRP at Fed, not publicly traded Treasuries. The Fed banks prob don’t have power to issue securities.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Pre-1933, the equity holders in the 12 banks had true risk of loss. Federal Reserve notes had backing of US Treasury like National Bank Notes, but bank stock or bank deposits at a Fed bank had true risk. This was taken away in 1933, but things are still kinda set up this way in de jure terms.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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NY Fed is technically a federally chartered corporation, not the government. The NY Fed President is also protected from removal. The coin doesn’t really have any use unless the NY Fed accepts it and then, on paper, loses a lot of money in its income account.
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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Fight against daunting odds, because it’s the right thing to do, and because sometimes you win.
36 replies 817 reposts 2943 likes
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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I often think about how the “tough-on-crime” 5th circuit threw out the convictions for Merrill Lynch helping, in short, to misstate Enron’s financials.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Manchin and Sinema also were not going for removing the filibuster.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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By doing what for abortion rights? His administration exercised EMTALA. Packing the court was not possible with a 50/50 Senate with Manchin.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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It would be Ivanka, following the UK in modernity with removing male preference in royal succession.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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The Menendez case has to do this dance, though at least there it’s in the freakin text. In the most optimistic scenario under Trump v US, discussions with private citizens on policy are official acts but would somehow defeat “presumptive” immunity.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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The “extreme hypotheticals,” with immunity and pardons, only definitely work within the confines of DC and for crimes with finality, such as murder.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Biden would have to continually renew pardons for BOP officials for federal criminal contempt and the people arresting could be guilty of kidnapping at state level.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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As a non-lawyer, I’m looking at the Article III exceptions clause. I think the SC can be stripped of appellate jurisdiction in Presidential immunity cases, with final appeals in DC Circuit. Though I know it’s the kind of thing that very well could be “No, you idiot” by constitutional lawyers.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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I keep thinking about Barrett saying, in a nomination questionnaire, that she has never been in a jail or prison. Not in any legal, internship, etc. capacity. While the government’s regulatory state can “wrong” other rich people, the 6 justices have basically never seen the gov do wrong up close.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Trump could lose I guess. And there’s not state absolute immunity (yet) for exec branch employees.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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The most absolutely dreadful part is Trump has no de jure check at all within the confines of DC, with pardons being absolute there.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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It’s all definitely bad. The only thing about insurrection act or martial law is in the end they’re just words from Trump. The actors won’t have state immunity, including for future state prosecution. They may not have federal pardons all lined up either.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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It seems like the Westfall Act doesn’t apply, but there is QI-like immunity about whether the federal agent acted reasonably. case-law.vlex.com/vid/state-of...
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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This is the top headline on NYT app right now.
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Faine Greenwood
@faineg.bsky.social
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I really have lost my former tolerance for "we're doomed/fucked/it's all over/they've won" takes at this point, in that they're the most dangerous attitudes one could possibly have when confronted with a truly existential political threat (which we still DO have levers to address).
59 replies 418 reposts 1568 likes
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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But yeah, it’s really dark. Not least because crimes with finality within only DC can be absolutely pardoned I believe.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Thinking about it, I only have a scintilla of hope for a second Trump term in that: Criminal Contempt is ongoing at federal level so difficult to pardon and there’s still possible state liability for federally pardoned crimes by Exec employees, even if Pres may have state immunity.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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In a realist view, *for Democrats* there’s a very good chance the system magically works again. And illegal acts that would really matter for sake of power I do not want to on any moral level.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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A Ruby Ridge FBI officer was prosecuted at the state level until Idaho later dropped it. I think it survived appellate review before it was dropped.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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but the people under him don’t have federal immunity without a pardon. If Trump is jailed, then the pardons will have to be redone over and over again. The people under him have no state immunity for murder or kidnapping, even from pardons.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Like with doctors being weary of doing abortions despite exceptions, regular people don’t want to risk serious crimes where there’s ambiguity. Biden personally has 90+% chance of federal immunity to order military action on Mar-a-Lago. He may have state immunity…
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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What specific illegal (or would be illegal under DC Circuit US v Trump ruling) things do you wish for Democrats to do? Not as a reductio ad absurdum hypothetical, but to actually do?
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Current SC will see the light that self-pardons are dead letter and somehow see that Biden’s illegal acts are official acts, but not core constitutional power and overcome presumptive liability.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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I didn’t mean against a sitting president. Even the DOJ itself can’t do that. But there’s a very realistic possibility the courts will uphold a future prosecution of Biden or, if not a fed crime specifically pardoned, exec branch employees. Notwithstanding what they say when Trump is at issue.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Judges in the southern district of NY used private attorneys to prosecute contempt in a Chevron case when DOJ declined to prosecute.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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All the Senate elections as well. Collectively the 2012-18 elections gave the 16-20 Senate majority to confirm.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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@kenwhite.bsky.social Not there's not a whole lot of terrible things bigger going on, but it looks like Rudy is converting from Chapter 11 to 7.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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I believe their municipal liability insurer (if they’re not a large self-insured municipality) would be interested in this post.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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With all the caveats, from Googling it doesn’t appear that Aggravated Assault here applies. Battery as a felony has to be connected with the injury. Misdemeanors have to be prosecuted by LA City Attorney.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Very was denied in all the substantive cases in 2020 election (a PA issue was taken up pre-election). Where SC had original jurisdiction on the Texas case, they essentially denied that 9-0.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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The current law, as far as I know, has no role for any state legislature. The law could in theory be changed, possibly after the election. But I really don’t think that will be held constitutional and every battleground state’s current governor would veto it.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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This is just not how it works though?
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Do they in any state under current law? I thought every one was the Sec of State ascertaining the electors.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Double Jeopardy would likely attach in a mistrial? That’s, um, just all outstanding work over in Fulton.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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There has been a lot of rulemaking for FCC for STIR/SHAKEN and call trace back requests. I do dislike how the issue has been defined down to robocalls, rather than scams or swatting.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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Just a non-lawyer, but I think ERISA having no cap for its exemption and TX passing a FL-like homestead exemption is BS.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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It could be. I’m not a lawyer, to be clear. I don’t know what’s transpired since this article.
amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2023...
TX apparently exempts his $3m house completely, like FL. Also a 401(k) or pension would be exempt under ERISA.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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A bankruptcy court has authority to void conveyances, especially to insiders. I remember Jones paid his father large amounts for dubious services, but I don’t know the current status of actions against those conveyances.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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British Left Waffles on Falklands
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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I still don’t really know how the hours have been filled up in the trial. I’m pretty sure you could explain, say, how the Corleone family worked in far less time.
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Matt Waters
@mwwaters.bsky.social
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I remember a story on the 5th circuit when they threw out some Merrill Lynch convictions in the scam Enron barge sales, around 2005. A story at the time had lawyers expressing “surprise” 5th circuit sided with defendants in the case, but it wasn’t really that surprising in a different rubric.
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