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George Pearkes@peark.es |
The chart below attempts to show why this lag in SA might be creating some issues (description in alt text). As shown, 2022-2024 see a much steeper ramp in NSA continuing claims than was the norm pre-COVID. '21 (included in chart) and '20 (excluded) were very unusual due to COVID so ignore them 7/n
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George Pearkes
@peark.es
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If there is a "new" seasonal trend where continuing claims rise faster in this part of the calendar but that hasn't been captured in the seasonal adjustment algo, that would make seasonally adjusted claims look higher than they are. And we know what the SA factors are! 8/n
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