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Peter

@peterdutoit.com

1143 followers 192 following 2192 posts

𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿: FutureWork IQ | I speak about mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis | b. 316 ppm | 🇿🇦

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Reposted by Peter

Gavin Schmidt's avatar Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social
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With the June update to GISTEMP, and with a forecast La Niña, a new record in 2024 is very likely.

3 replies 8 reposts 18 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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First up NYT’s

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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We have an extreme precipitation event loading in #CapeTown and surrounds over the next 24-hours

The ground is already saturated from rain just a few days ago.

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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It is extremely important to understand that adaptation has hard limits and when those are reached migration will begin in real earnest. Do you understand what the hard limits are for the area you are in? +1.3°C latest 5-year avg. +1.64°C current 12-month running mean Permanent +1.5°C imminent

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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🤷🏻‍♂️

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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The consequences of a heating world ie hotter days, prolonged heatwaves, intense precipitation etc. will without question “exploit” deteriorating infrastructure. Much like the impact of a virus on someone who has compromised health. Deteriorating infrastructure will fail sooner rather than later

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Image 1: Jan 2024 Copernicus global temperature trend monitor: 1.5°C projection September 2033

Image 2: May 2024 Copernicus global temperature trend monitor: 1.5°C projection April 2033

During the first 4 months of 2024, the arrival of a permanent 1.5°C has accelerated by 5 months.

#ClimateCrisis

1 replies 5 reposts 9 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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“During overshoot of 1.5°C warming, risks become increasingly severe with every increment of global warming. Impacts include loss and damage due to heatwave exposure and other extreme events, especially in tropical countries, as well as accelerated loss of biodiversity.” 2/2

1 replies 2 reposts 8 likes

Reposted by Peter

Reposted by Peter

Peter Gleick 's avatar Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social
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The fossil-fuel industry will build massive seawalls to protect their investments from the climate changes and sea level rise they're causing.
The rest of us are on our own.

climatechange
wapo.st/45TbmfS

0 replies 15 reposts 55 likes

Reposted by Peter

Sam Burgess's avatar Sam Burgess @oceanterra.bsky.social
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Data released by Copernicus Climate shows:

📈 June 2024 was the warmest June on record
📈 The global average temperature for the last 12 months is the highest on record, 1.64ºC above pre-industrial
🌡️ 15th months that SST has been the warmest on record

More: climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-j...
🧪⚒️

1 replies 47 reposts 49 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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“For the first time ever, energy-related emissions exceeded the 40 GtCO2e level, with emissions from the direct use of energy breaching 35 GtCO2e for the first time ever.”

www.energyinst.org/__data/asset...

2/2

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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We are on a highway to hell

2023:

“Although demand for [methane] gas remained flat, consumption of crude oil broke through the 100 million barrels per day level for the first time ever and coal demand beat the previous year’s record level.”

#FossilFuels
#ClimateCrisis

1/2

1 replies 16 reposts 24 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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#Bangladesh is in the middle of the annual summer monsoon, which brings south Asia 70-80% of its annual rainfall, as well as regular deaths and destruction due to flooding and landslides

But climate models show increased precipitation risk as we continue to heat

www.theguardian.com/world/articl...

0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes

Reposted by Peter

Andrew Dessler's avatar Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.bsky.social
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Nice article in The Conversation from Prof. Brian Tang on rapid intensification of hurricanes and how this connects to climate change.
theconversation.com/...

0 replies 31 reposts 48 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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This should come as no surprise of course, since the data has been pretty clear as to to what happens to Sicily’s water balance as we continue to heat. (Btw in 2021 a temperature of 48.8°C was recorded in Sicily - a European record)

We are utterly unprepared.

www.cnn.com/2024/07/06/c...

2 replies 3 reposts 7 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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In this #EnROADS simulation we took action across the entire system and managed to keep temperatures just below 2ºC

Whichever way we sliced this, breaching 1.5ºC was unavoidable. (1.65ºC by 2040)

This is the world we must prepare for.

Scenario here en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.htm...

1 replies 3 reposts 16 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Competing heat domes

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Here is what needs to happen (we have missed the 2024 target) The Covid measures were an indication of the level of change that needs to happen

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Let me explain some of the disruption. Currently there are millions of people using way way more energy than is required for a decent living standard. Millions of people will have to cut back on energy use to name just one action that will have to be taken - for many this will be *very* disruptive.

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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There is nothing beneficial about the disruption required to turn this around. Deep and rapid emissions reduction will be a massively disruptive to society. This is where we are at.

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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This right here is why we will blast straight through 1.5° and 2°C and more. The science: “Limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C involves rapid, deep and in most cases immediate GHG reductions.” People: “To solve climate change, we need to make gradual, step-by-step changes to our society.” 🧪

5 replies 28 reposts 46 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Caribbean Sea Surface Temperatures, July 1, 2024

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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So on the southern tip of Africa there is this.

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Reposted by Peter

Zeke Hausfather's avatar Zeke Hausfather @hausfath.bsky.social
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Global temperatures were extremely hot in June 2024, at just over 1.5C, beating June 2023's previous record-setting temperatures by 0.14C and coming in around 0.4C warmer than 2016 (the last major El Nino event). Now 2024 is very likely to beat 2023 as the warmest year on record

4 replies 37 reposts 65 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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The ability to be location independent is going to become really important as physical environments destabilise in a heating world.

#ClimateCrisis

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Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Headline: “Mexico City residents, faced with water crisis, resort to drastic measures.” (abcnews.visitlink.me/eUgMGm)

We have know this will happen, for decades. What was done to prepare? Were limits to adaptation understood?

Most places are utterly unprepared for what is to come.

#ClimateCrisis

0 replies 5 reposts 6 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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Party on “Australian, New Zealand property markets face creeping climate risks” - 4% of Australian properties will be uninsurable by 2030. Q1 insurance premiums surged 16.4% - In New Zealand, around 1,000 properties are uninsurable and being bought by authorities following major floods in 2023.

2 replies 2 reposts 6 likes

Peter's avatar Peter @peterdutoit.com
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We were just commenting in the years of watching these major tournaments we don’t recall a game suspended because of lightning 🤔

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