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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Maybe we can meet halfway?
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ptrdo@ptrdo.bsky.social |
24 followers 141 following 194 posts
Visualizing for goodness sake.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Maybe we can meet halfway?
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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As Peter Baker put it, pundits will say what they say right up to the very moment they say something else.
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CHOAM Nomsky đź’
@thielman.bsky.social
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yes, we boiled the planet, but it was worth it to make a machine that, instead of adding two plus two, takes the statistical average of every answer to questions containing "what" "is" "two" and "plus" from a database of illegal cell phone transcripts and returns a fake nude pic of a high schooler
24 replies 926 reposts 3148 likes
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Federal elections are federal. They aren't run at the whim of state operatives (see Colorado's Trump v Anderson). Regardless, it makes zero sense that one party could disqualify the duly nominated ticket of the other party.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Again, nominating conventions have not occurred. Even Trump himself is only a PRESUMPTIVE nominee. States could not allow one party's candidate and disallow the other. I believe SCOTUS just ruled on something like this in Colorado.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Not so fast. The nominating conventions haven't even happened yet.
ballotpedia.org/Ballot_acces...
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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I'm watching the news right now. Three of four talking heads beg to differ. But I suppose they'll say that until they don't.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Yes, but many people seem willing to spot him a mulligan for that one. Probably not again, though.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Two options: Biden owns up or it gets exposed…eventually. This is a big scoop and word will get out. The only question is when and on whose terms. Cognitive decline doesn't get better and is exacerbated by the rigors of things like a months-long campaign. The “bad night” excuse works exactly once.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Yes, Whitmer should be the one, but that wouldn't be practical if Biden resigns. If he only withdraws, two govs are best. Go for it. Dems can't afford to lose a senator. Anyway, senators aren't executives, don't answer enough to their constituency, run from blame, and don't sing enough praises.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Thank God.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Nope. Age-related cognitive decline is not binary but a spectrum. It's incurable and progressive, but to what degree is unpredictable. Biden can resign per prognosis that his capacity has declined and could worsen. Reagan had full-blown Alzheimer's, but there was never a “frenzy” after the fact.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Whitmer is a better bet. MI is safe and WI and PA become better chances.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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People seem to think the GOP House can stonewall a VP pick, but not with a 3-seat margin during an election cycle with vulnerable Republicans running in Democratic districts. Whatever, Biden's final “official act” is an EO to accommodate an “acting vice president.” What could SCOTUS do? Arrest him?
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Red states are lost. Battlegrounds are the only ones where there is still a chance. It must be women. Men are fucking this up too badly.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Is that your diagnosis? On what authority? How many old people do you know? How old are you? Do you have any awareness of what happens in an aging brain? Those were softball questions to a man who's been a legislator for FIFTY YEARS. He couldn't articulate an answer to the first question. FFS.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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She's been a Vice President for nearly FOUR YEARS. Sure, the presidency is a big time job, but we have an 81-year-old man doing it, and he wants to go to bed by 8.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Lol.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Yes. Responsibility is what a presidency assumes. How is this a problem?
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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How is this a “wild scenario”? This is the fucking United States of America. Can our systems not change a president from someone who has mental deficiency? If people want to pretend that Biden is just fine, maybe they should go to the video tape.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Biden's last “official act” is an EO to expedite “acting” VPs. What are they going to do? Arrest him?
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Make Kamala the first woman President of the United States. Joe can do it now with the biggest speech of his career. Then he rides off into the sunset. Make a big show of the transition. Flood the zone. Then Kamala picks Whitmer as VP, and they run as incumbents—on Air Force One—while kicking butt.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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It makes all the sense in the world. They can campaign on Air Force One while doing press conferences and visiting foreign dignitaries.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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I know the best path: Make Kamala the first woman President of the United States. Now. Joe can do that with the best speech of his career and then ride into the sunset. Make a big show of it. Pomp and circumstance. Then Kamala picks Whitmer as VP and they run as incumbents.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Joe can make a woman the President of the United States. Damn. It will be HIS sacrifice, and he alone can make this happen. All he needs to do is make the speech of his career. Hand the presidency to Harris and cheer her on. Dems will be onboard and 3% more can give them all the battleground states.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Sure. But is that Biden right now? Even though his term's been great, he hasn't moved the needle on his approval rating in 4 yrs. He's declined interviews, gets rushed off the podium, miffs softball questions in a debate he called, and is -10 to a felonious clown wearing orange makeup and a red cap.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Brains aren't legs.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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The president is a figurehead without a sliver of daylight between anyone on the shortlist. Not to mention that the entire administration will carry over with an agenda well underway. Why do people think we must split hairs for a favorite? That's the identity politics that got us into this mess.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Only the engaged vote in primaries, which is bias, NOT representation. Especially when it's the disenchanted vote that's needed to win this election. If anything, primary the battleground states. Even better, do a kickass poll. It would likely be a more accurate barometer of what ticket could work.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Democrat support is solid, but Biden's numbers won't budge—despite his accomplishments. What's needed is enthusiasm, and for that to spread to the disillusioned who were resigned to believing this race was a forgone conclusion. Imagine what these lawn signs could do...
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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The last time numbers like these were seen was early May, seeming to coincide with IDF offensive in Rafah. Numbers rebounded back to the mean in weeks, yet Biden never does as well as Trump. This chart masks Trump's ceiling of support, 47%, but if "likely" slips to "unlikely," 47% may be enough.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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The Trump campaign wants nothing more than for Biden to stay in the race.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Yes but no one knows about those things. Perhaps Biden should have taken that zero margin for error aptitude and applied it to his own flat-lined approval ratings.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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As if voting is such a chore.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Good question. I'd start by not calling them stupid.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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I'm 64, so since Obama. I've been older than Presidents. Nowadays, I watch pundits on the TV who are as old as my kids. People “in charge” don't know any more than the rest of us, but generally know how to talk with confidence, even when they're full of shit. I suppose that's why I'm not in charge.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Calling out shallow reactionary Biden-hating “leftists” as the ones who want Biden to step down ignores huge segments of the Venn diagram who are proud leftists AND genuinely concerned for Biden, party, and country. We'll need us and them and everyone else too. Supposed motivations don't matter.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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“…normal effects of aging…” How many old people do you know? Because I had a visceral reaction watching Biden's debate. I've seen that face and watched that behavior in loved ones I've lost. It may be “normal,” but it's not. Biden will not recover. Age is merciless. Someone needs to take his place.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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In battleground states, margins could be in the thousands, yet 1/3 of eligible voters probably won't vote—hundreds of thousands of votes left on the sidelines. Whatever Dems do, they MUST consider those people. What would get them engaged? Many don't want Trump OR Biden. And the debate didn't help.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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I don't care either, but it's telling.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Democrats, of course.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Of course it makes no sense, but don't shoot me for that. MAGA is lockstep that Trump can do no wrong. They are remarkably consistent with this. But this requires idolatry, hypocrisy, and willful ignorance that Dems don't possess. They are too principled. So, in battleground states, MAGA wins.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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I could shut up, fine, but MAGA is screaming this from the rooftops. BTW, MAGA wants Biden to stay in the race. Trump will decline the next debate because he has nothing to gain. Meanwhile, all they need to do is wait for Biden to slip again so they can pounce—and that's a very good bet.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Biden doesn't need to get through the next four years, he needs to get through the next four MONTHS. One more “episode” will finish his campaign, and everything he does—and the interviews he declines and questions he doesn't take—will be under a microscope of suspicion. Aging is irreversible.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Dems could circle wagons like MAGA, but this doesn't work as well for Dems. MAGA wins when the fewest people vote because they are at their ceiling (47%). So, if their argument that Biden is unfit finds purchase among people who aren't sure, then they won't vote and the MAGA ceiling is high enough.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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Fine. Then wait a week for the polls (which are not necessarily more insightful).
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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It's possible for both Biden and Trump to be mentally unfit for office. This isn't an either/or about who is the worst, as if that automatically makes the other fit enough. Republicans simply choose to ignore the mental condition of their candidate. But this isn't what Democrats should do too.
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ptrdo
@ptrdo.bsky.social
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“Betting” is short for a prediction market. Is a different way of looking at poll data, more along the line of how investors buy/sell stocks with calibrated analysis rather than simply reacting to what has already happened.
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