How is this either/or? He can’t talk on Thursday night, but can the next day—seems like sundowning. Both things are alarming, both untenable. He may be incapable of getting through election season, may lose. He also clearly cannot serve until 2029, and seems unable to function after 9pm right now.
i'm less interested in guessing the actual answer (I can't know!) and more saying that the prominent people in The Discourse should be clear about what they mean (in part because some of them have better sources than I do!)