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richardmskinner.bsky.social@richardmskinner.bsky.social |
38 followers 148 following 57 posts
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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If Biden quits...most likely process: (1) Biden endorses KH (2) Many top Dems back KH (3) Polls show KH far ahead of potential challengers. (4) No big names challenge KH. (5) KH ignores whoever runs, acts like nominee. (6) No formal process to include other candidates. (7) KH easily nominated.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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FWIW, Dem insider & FDR friend Edward J. Flynn spent a weekend at the White House in June '44 (pre-convention). He became so worried abt FDR's health he urged him not to run and told Eleanor that, too. They did not take his advice. (Flynn instead got to work on dumping VP Henry Wallace).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Biden's greatest strengths as a politician often tend to be out of the public eye: managing coalitions, maintaining relationships.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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FWIW, FDR had at least one public appearance in the 1944 campaign where listeners thought he might be ill. From Jean Edward Smith's biography.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Happy Independence Day!
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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If a white male: Mayor Pete = youth ticket. Vetted as pres candidate. Also diversity. But no help in EC. Shapiro = PA. Tho inexperienced. Some diversity. Cooper = NC. Inoffensive. Tho 7 years older than Harris.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Depends on whether an open convention is realistic possibility. Whitmer probably only plausible alternative, tho others might run for kicks.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Selecting Whitmer ends any speculation of an open convention. In the Dem party, no white male has a shot against an all-female ticket.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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(2) seems much more likely, given fear of a huge mess and unwillingness to show disrespect to Harris.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Three thoughts: 1. Biden remains very very unlikely to drop out. 2. No one can make him. 3. If he somehow isn't the nominee, VP Harris will be. Quit your fanfic.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Theoretically, he could have watched the famous episode of "I Love Lucy" where Lucy gives birth. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Go...
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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An Antietam veteran died in March 1953, a few days after Stalin died. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_H...
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Or if Reagan picked Bork instead of O'Connor (GOP Senate would have confirmed). Or if Haynsworth had not had petty ethical trouble....or if Ike had cared more about Brennan's ideology and less about his Catholicism....
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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The fact that an Ivy Leaguer with one of the most powerful jobs in the USA embraces these symbols makes me think that something other than downward mobility is going on.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Following this campaign, I find myself wondering how disengaged/apolitical young people (key to this election) consume news, if at all. "Umm...TikTok? Instagram? What?"
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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There are probably some smaller Southern airports named for segregationist pols. Charlotte's is named for this Jim Crow era mayor, but I can't find much about his record on race: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Elb....
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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I once shook hands with Buzz Aldrin, who surely once shook hands with Von Braun, who got a medal from Hitler.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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We don't have party registration in VA and I can't see how it affects our politics at all.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Most agree some activities OK (petitions, chanting, handing out flyers) and others not OK (rioting, defacing property, refusing to pay taxes). When was last time protestors said wouldn't serve if drafted? (No one < 70 has realistically feared being drafted).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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"Power of the Dog" is high on my list of movies that were easier to admire than to enjoy.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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The conservative movement's successful effort to keep Harriet Miers off the Supreme Court stands as a surprisingly important turning point. However she would have turned out (and she's alive), hard to see her being as conservative as Alito.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Biden carried PA by a point, about 3 points more R than the nation, FWIW.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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If there were a couple of obvious potential party switchers among House R's....but maybe some rich D should offer easy jobs to Brian Fitzpatrick and Anthony D'Esposito?
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Consistent with a dead-even nat'l race.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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In the 1950s, most men under 40 had been in uniform during WWII or Korea or in peacetime. Many of their dads had served in WWI. Easy for them to relate to a service comedy. Not so much now.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Have to love a guy who could end a song with repeated chants of "wanna a hit record, yeah!" (It was a small one). Eric Carmen, RIP. youtu.be/ARkj12Y6Uh4?...
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Seth Masket
@smotus.bsky.social
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It would be epic if he just slowly glad-handed everyone in the room down and up both aisles for an hour and then left
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Chris Galdieri
@cgaldieri.bsky.social
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Biggest challenge in setting up partisan Dem media outlets might not be finding $$$ or staff but that highly attentive Dems tend to like the mainstream media.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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UK Tories, German Social Democrats, Macron all unpopular.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Yeah, the gender gap has been consistent, even as age/race/ethnicity gaps have shrunk.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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We hear a lot from college students (or recent grads). I'd like to see more profiles of under-30, non-college people (maybe more male, maybe more minority) who don't know much about politics but plan to vote. They might decide this election!
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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When education polarization comes to the school or hospital near you....
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Virginia doesn't have the same legal issues, but otherwise a good fit for Haley. Plus Trump is especially radioactive in NoVa.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Virginia would be a good target for her. Open primary state with lots of college grads.
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Seth Masket
@smotus.bsky.social
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Historian: Any political scientist who studies the 19th century. Economist: Any political scientist who makes a graph.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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It’s interesting how much the Arthur Schlesinger Jr view of American political history has vanished: FDR as heir of Wilson, Cleveland (!), Jackson, Jefferson (FDR was a big fan of both Andy & Tom).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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(Apparently, his talent was for spotting talent, which is how you keep a variety show for 20+ years).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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There were a lot of jokes then about Ed Sullivan having built a career despite having no talent or personality. He had been a columnist for the NY Daily News, not an entertainer.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Emerson not my favorite pollster, but it’s nice to see some numbers for other Dem nominees. Not a lot of difference, once you account for Newsom’s and Whitmer’s lower name ID.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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I gather that Suozzi talked more about abortion than any other issue…though “Dem talks abortion” is now a “dog bites man” story.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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We see his ads every night on Jeopardy and have for months now. Primary isn’t until May.
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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And there's the AP call. Democrats have flipped #NY03, cutting Republicans' majority in the House to 219–213 (with 3 vacancies).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Ike finally had to let them down. (From David Pietrusza’s 1948).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Last serious effort to deny the nomination to a sitting POTUS on the grounds that “he can’t win” was in ‘48, when Dems tried to draft Ike to replace “sure loser” Truman. Despite Ike’s clear lack of interest, he attracted a “diverse” bunch of backers (the Roosevelt was FDR’s liberal son, Jimmy).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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If there were polls out there showing other Dems performing much better than Biden (outside of their home states), someone would have leaked them. (People are always polling things like that).
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Dean Phillips is hardly a household name but he wouldn’t be polling in single digits if a lot of Dems were interested in replacing Biden.
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@richardmskinner.bsky.social
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Watched the 1st two episodes of the 2nd season of “Feud.” It’s all right. But it’s convinced me that I’d rather see a miniseries about the lives of Bill and Babe Paley.
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