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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Who will be the first to put “Hot To Go” in a crossword? Great pattern of vowels and consonants, it’s really just a matter of time
2 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot.bsky.social |
2306 followers 96 following 872 posts
Senior editor and senior elections analyst at 538. Don’t call me Nate!
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Who will be the first to put “Hot To Go” in a crossword? Great pattern of vowels and consonants, it’s really just a matter of time
2 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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It's different because it was MUCH later in the campaign, but FWIW, 24 representatives, 15 senators, and 7 governors said they wouldn't vote for Trump or called on him to get out after the Access Hollywood tape in 2016. Obviously, he stayed in. www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
1 replies 6 reposts 32 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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One of the two missing constituencies has reported (Basildon South and East Thurrock), and it's a 5th seat for Reform! Reform 30.8% (+31) Labour 30.5% (+7) Conservative 26% (-40) Just one seat left: Inverness, Skye & West Ross-shire, where we won't get results until tomorrow.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour's seat landslide is the headline bc of how it will affect government in the UK. But in terms of voter sentiment, most voters disaffected with Conservatives went to the right-wing Reform Party, not Labour. A warning for the future.
3 replies 22 reposts 64 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour is going to wind up with 63% of the seats in the House of Commons despite winning only 34% of the popular vote.
4 replies 6 reposts 33 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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With just 2 constituencies left to report, the UK seat totals are: Labour 412 (+211) Conservative 121 (-250) Lib Dem 71 (+63) SNP 9 (-38) Independent 6 (+6) Reform 4 (+4) Green 4 (+3) Plaid Cymru 4 (+2) Various Northern Ireland parties 17 (-1)
1 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Going into this election, Conservatives had never won fewer than 156 seats. The most they can win at this point is 130, and they'll probably win only 120-125.
0 replies 0 reposts 14 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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With only 13 constituencies left to report, here are the UK seat totals: Labour 409 (+210) Conservative 117 (-247) Lib Dem 70 (+62) SNP 8 (-38) Reform 4 (+4) Green 4 (+3) Plaid Cymru 4 (+2) Other 21 (+4)
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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42% of UK voters voted for a party other than Labour or Conservative. That's the most since they became the two major parties.
0 replies 4 reposts 12 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The current popular vote in the UK—and with 98% of constituencies reporting, this is pretty close to final. Labour 34% (+2) Conservative 24% (-20) Reform 14% (+12) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 7% (+4) That's the lowest vote share in the history of the Conservative Party.
3 replies 1 reposts 17 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Former Prime Minister Liz Truss has lost her seat (Norfolk South West) to Labour. Labour 27% (+8) Conservative 25% (-43) Reform 23% (+23) Independent 14% (+14)
0 replies 4 reposts 14 likes
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Taniel
@taniel.bsky.social
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Green Party had only ever won one seat in any UK election. It’s winning 4 today — a feat in first past the poll system — while being on track to win 7% of the overall vote.
4 replies 16 reposts 111 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Liberal Democrats are up to 64 seats now, which is the most they've ever won.
0 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Seat results with only 50 constituencies yet to report: Labour 394 (+196) Conservative 105 (-226) Lib Dem 62 (-55) SNP 7 (-38) Reform 4 (+4) Plaid Cymru 4 (+2) Green 3 (+3) Other 21 (+4)
1 replies 0 reposts 12 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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WASHINGTON POST EXCLUSIVE
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Anyone have downloadable UK election results by constituency?
1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Another Green gain from Conservatives in Waveney Valley: Green 42% (+32) Conservative 30% (-32) Reform 16% (+16) Labour 9% (-9) Lib Dem 3% (-7)
0 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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We now have results in 542 out of 650 constituencies. They are: Labour 368 (+181) Conservative 90 (-200) Lib Dem 51 (+44) SNP 5 (-37) Reform 4 (+4) Plaid Cymru 4 (+2) Green 2 (+2) Other 18 (+4)
0 replies 2 reposts 12 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The Green Party has gained a 2nd seat, this time from Conservatives. The results in Herefordshire North: Green 43% (+34) Conservative 32% (-31) Reform 16% (+16) Labour 6% (-9) Lib Dem 3% (-11)
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The party that gained the most votes from 2019 to 2024 was Reform. But the party that gained the second most? Quietly, the Greens.
0 replies 3 reposts 15 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Here's the national popular vote with 76% of constituencies reporting: Labour 36% (+1) Conservative 23% (-20) Reform 15% (+12) Lib Dem 11% (no change) Green 7% (+4)
1 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Yes, they are the center-left party.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour "smashed it out of the park," says the Sky News announcer. Is that a cricket term or did the London Series really leave a mark??
1 replies 0 reposts 13 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour wins their 326th seat, Blackley and Middleton South. They have officially clinched a majority in the House of Commons and ended 14 years of Conservative government.
1 replies 5 reposts 27 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The latest seat count in the UK: Labour 285 (+129) Conservative 55 (-142) Liberal Democrat 34 (+29) SNP 4 (-25) Reform 4 (+4) Other 11 (+5)
2 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Penny Mordaunt, who ran unsuccessfully for the Conservative leadership/prime minister, loses her seat in Portsmouth North. Labour 35% (+8) Conservative 33% (-28) Reform 20% (+20)
0 replies 1 reposts 11 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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It's 4:06am in the UK, and these are the seat counts and net changes: Labour 218 (+96) Conservative 39 (-110) Lib Dem 24 (+20) SNP 4 (-15) Reform 4 (+4) Other 8 (+5)
2 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The Green Party has flipped Bristol Central from Labour. It's only the 2nd seat the Greens have ever won in the House of Commons.
0 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Reform has won their 4th seat, Boston & Skegness. Reform 38% (+38) Conservative 33% (-43) Labour 19% (+3)
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Here's where the UK popular vote stands with 38% of constituencies reporting: Labour 38% (+1) Conservative 22% (-20) Reform 16% (+13) Lib Dem 10% (no change) Green 7% (+4)
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour has continued to flip Conservative seats at a furious pace. The current national seat count: Labour 166 (+69) Conservative 30 (-81) Lib Dem 18 (+15) Reform 3 (+3) Other 8 (-6) A majority is 326, so Labour is halfway there...
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The Reform Party has won its 3rd seat, Great Yarmouth. Reform 36% (+36) Labour 33% (+8) Conservative 25% (-41)
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Independent Shockat Adam has defeated a Labour incumbent in Leicester South. He was running on a pro-Palestinian platform in a seat with a significant Muslim population.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Lib Dems are on a hot streak. They've flipped a total of 13 seats so far, most recently: -Eastbourne -St. Neots & Mid Cambs -Newton Abbot -Cambridgeshire South -Stratford-on-Avon (very Shakespearean)
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK Independence Party, then leader of the Brexit Party, now leader of the Reform Party, has been elected to Parliament for the 1st time in 8 tries.
0 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader who was expelled for anti-Semitic comments, has won Islington North. Corbyn 49% Labour 34% (-30)
0 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The total UK seat count at this hour: Labour 106 (+40) Conservative 17 (-45) Lib Dem 11 (+8) Reform 1 (+1) Plaid Cymru 1 (+1) SNP 1 (-5) Still 513 seats to go!!
0 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, is getting in on the fun, flipping Ynys Mon from Conservatives.
1 replies 2 reposts 33 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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People outside my apartment are so excited about these Labour gains, they're setting off fireworks!
0 replies 5 reposts 44 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Conservatives have made their first gain, flipping the Labour-held seat in Leicester East. Conservative 31% (-7) Labour 22% (-29) Lib Dem 14% (+8) Two former Labour MPs who were expelled for misconduct combined for 20%, which explains the result here.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour flips Welwyn Hatfield from Conservatives, defeating Rishi Sunak's defense secretary Grant Shapps. Labour 41% (+9) Conservative 33% (-19) Reform 13% (+13)
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Three!
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The Liberal Democrats have flipped Chelmsford, Torbay, and Hazel Grove from Conservatives. They're on track for a good night.
1 replies 0 reposts 11 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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More Conservative --> Labour flips: -Southport -Stevenage -Scunthorpe -Bishop Auckland -Barrow & Furness -Broxtowe -Bolsover -Harlow -Thurrock National seat count: Labour 71 (+29) Conservative 8 (-31) Lib Dem 4 (+3) Reform 1 (+1)
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Second Scottish constituency, Dunbartonshire West, is also a SNP --> Labour flip. Labour 49% (+20) SNP 34% (-16)
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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We have the results from the first constituency in Scotland (Kilmarnock & Loudoun). Labour has flipped it from the Scottish National Party. Labour 45% (+26) SNP 33% (-18) Labour hasn't gained much in the popular vote in England; Scotland could be different.
1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Labour flips Rushcliffe, Erewash, Wrexham, and Tipton & Wednesbury from Conservatives. Updated national seat count: Labour 46 (+18) Conservative 4 (-21) Lib Dem 2 (+2) Reform 1 (+1)
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Alex Cruikshanks
@alexsaysstuff.bsky.social
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Worth noting the Reform candidate in this seat was an incumbent MP who'd defected from the Conservatives.
0 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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The Reform Party has won their first constituency, Ashfield—a gain from Conservatives. Reform 43% (+38) Labour 29% (+3) Ashfield Independent 16% (-11) Conservative 8% (-31)
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot.bsky.social
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Conservative --> Labour flips coming in fast and furious: -Cannock Chase -Bridgend -Redcar -Whitehaven & Workington Labour at 32 seats, a gain of 14. Conservatives at 3, a loss of 17.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes