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@rm4.bsky.social
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I'm still waiting for that "Red Wave" from 2022
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rm4.bsky.social@rm4.bsky.social |
10 followers 61 following 191 posts
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I'm still waiting for that "Red Wave" from 2022
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Put on the horse blinders more. 20 years ago about 1/3 of pollsters were Democrat funded, 1/3 we Republican funded and 1/3 were Independent. Today 50% are Republican, 25% are Democrat, and 25 are Independent.
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The Onion
@theonion.com
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@rm4.bsky.social
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When I try to engage people in this conversation they are convinced it's the corporations even though homeownership for Mellenials is higher at current ages then it was for Boomers or Gen X. The solution is always build more housing. Minneapolis and Austin are prime experiments happening right now
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Maybe a better question is how long have they been lost? I mean at least since 2015.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I don't think this is talked about enough. Tom Bonier and @simonwdc.bsky.social have both talked about the false 2022 red wave narrative depressing Democrat turnout. It's not a scourge, it's a disinformation campaign.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Run the numbers. Biden at D+23 with under 45s (40% of the vote), even with Gen X (was +D3% in 20) that means Trump is R+23% with Boomers (he was R+3% in 2020). I just can't make the math work.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Not a single poll addresses the real realignment that the largest voting block in 2024 will be Mellinals and Zellenials. The under 45s will gain 8% of the vote. The gold standard youth polls show Biden close to his 2020 numbers (D+23%).
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@rm4.bsky.social
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They will sell you beer to go so you can sit in Bryant Park and drink too.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I'm not sure the general public is aware of the energy revolution that is happening. Texas being a great example. 81GW of peak demand yesterday and 40% of that was wind and solar. Texas getting 20GW of solar and is installing 12GW this year alone. Also adding 6GW of Battery storage this year
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@philplait.bsky.social thanks for posting about the book and for writing it!
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Look I hate what the 5th estate has become too, but I don't think it's that nefarious. I think Biden is collateral damage. Biden won in 2020. Democrats expanded their margins in every swing state. MAGA is a 6 time loser. How many papers will they sell if it's not a horserace?
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Texas is doing that. Republicans want to stick their heads in the sand on renewable, but the free market isn't. 81GW of demand yesterday in Texas. 40% of it was from wind and solar.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Fair enough.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I mean...Trump did just govern like a Republican...little to no job growth, skyrocketing deficits and debts, shittier GDP growth.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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The original poster isn't wrong though. Trump was no different than the Bushes. Skyrocketing deficits, exploding debt, massive tax breaks to the rich, massive recessions, little to no job growth (16 years under Republicans created 1.9 million jobs vs 50 million under the last 3 Democrats).
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@rm4.bsky.social
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"Death panels"
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@rm4.bsky.social
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projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-...
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@rm4.bsky.social
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This didn’t hurt Biden w swing voters. It hurt Biden w some Democrats, who are going to vote for him in November but bedwet until then
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Legacy news media you say?
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I thought Trump's sentencing was done by the judge next month?
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Best place for a beer in Venice..
maps.app.goo.gl/i6coyJMAA1o8...
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@rm4.bsky.social
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"I didn’t live my life in the right way for politics, you know,” the actor, 49, tells Newsweek. “I f—– too many chicks and did too many drugs, and that’s the truth.”
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Wow based on one survey that's not even the Harvard IOP survey which is the gold standard. Cool unfollowed. Confirmation bias much. Doing the Republicans disinformation and taking a page out of thr Authoritarian playbook acting like the election is a predetermined outcome to dissuade Dem Voters.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@simonwdc.bsky.social made a great point this week. The Republican pollsters are dishonest. Same as 2022 with red wave narratives. A page right out of authoritarian playbooks. Try to make the voters think it's predetermined outcome and they lose interst in voting. You don't need accurate polls.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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You lost me when you said Houston was the 4th largest metro. That's DFW.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Wtf is this shit? Texas moved left from '12 to '20 and in Gubernatorial years from '14 to '22. Biden lost by 5.5%. The state is shifting left by 1.3% per year. '24 will come down to turn out. The state is purple, turning blue. Dems spent $7 per voter in '20 vs $31 per voter in GA senate races
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@rm4.bsky.social
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That 3rd house...they should tare off the facade and just expose the brick. Really beautiful brick.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Save you a click...the US has 8.7 million jobs opening and 6.5 looking for jobs. Taking another 5-11 million out of the workforce would decimate the economy and spike inflation.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Save you a click...the US has 8.7 million jobs opening and 6.5 looking for jobs. Taking another 5-11 million out of the workforce would decimate the economy and spike inflation.
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Olivier Simard-Casanova
@o.simardcasanova.net
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A new working paper shows that forcing workers to return to office (RTO) at Apple, Microsoft, and SpaceX lead many senior (and valuable) workers to leave. For the competition.
RTO mandates seem to have a high cost for employers, while benefits are unclear.
harris.uchicago.edu/sites/defaul...
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@rm4.bsky.social
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!Remind me 2028
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Honestly when you Newsome doesn't have a chance, I think I'm looking a future editor's comments from the New York Times.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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The guy that they uninvited to the 2004 Democratic convention because he had the audacity to make Gay marriage legal as mayor of San Francisco. Yeah fuck that guy. In 2028 when Mellinals and Zellenials are the largest voting bloc, no way they vote for a guy who goes out on a limb for the liberals.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Where the fuck is immigration at the top of then polls? Newsmax?
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I wish just one people would mention the $3.7T spending packages were deficit neutral.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Hush money trial? You mean Election Interference trial?
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Judge said that's the max allowable, hence why he said incarceration would be on the table.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@rm4.bsky.social
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There's a massive poll truther slur going around as if we can look at cross tabs and say that's sloppy work. 2020: Biden wins women by 15% 2021: Jan 6th 2022: Dobbs 2023: Dems outperform polls in nearly every election 2024: Confirmed rapist on trial for paying a porn star gains 16% w/ women
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@rm4.bsky.social
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Ask a conservative where the open boarders originated from. Which Democrats. Bet you zero will say it was in a Hillary speech in front of Goldman Sachs and was about the energy policy that Republicans have misquoted for a decade.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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I don't care one bit about it flying. I just want pictures of the rain. The way Brian Cox describes the weak gravity and the large drops of rain slowly falling must be breath taking.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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@rm4.bsky.social
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They are not issuing new shares.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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She never went to jail. Just sentenced, but she won on appeal and the case was thrown out. But your point still stands.
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@rm4.bsky.social
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But TV habits have changed over the years and especially young people don't watch TV at certain times anymore. All that being said I think it's stellar the women's game had more viewership.
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