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Simon Wren-Lewis@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social |
1329 followers 70 following 169 posts
Emeritus Professor of Economics, Oxford University.
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: What the Conservative rout tells us about the popularity of a right wing populist government
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/what...
It is jarring to see journalists fret about the Reform vote when the main election story is the total failure of a right wing populist government.
1 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: Why tactical voting in this election could change the nature of the UK’s political debate mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/why-...
To push the next Labour government to be less right wing and socially conservative, we need a Liberal Democrat official opposition rather than wasted votes.
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Pete Miles
@petermiles.bsky.social
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@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social here on how different things would be if the LibDems became the official opposition on Friday.
(And how tactical voting can achieve that)
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/why-...
0 replies 8 reposts 7 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: Why tactical voting in this election could change the nature of the UK’s political debate mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/why-...
If the LibDems become the official opposition they will be pushing for closer ties with the EU, while a Tory opposition will be doing the opposite.
0 replies 2 reposts 10 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Why tactical voting in this election could change the nature of the UK’s political debate
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/why-...
If the Tories become the official opposition under a Labour government, socially conservative issues will dominate the UK political debate. Plus ça change.
0 replies 5 reposts 5 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: Why UK taxes should be higher mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/why-...
UK public services are in crisis simply because the Conservative government has chosen to spend far too little on them in order to get taxes unusually low compared to other G7 and major European countries.
1 replies 4 reposts 7 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: The Conservatives could lose almost every seat to efficient tactical voting mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/uk-e...
If the Tories stay as the official opposition, part of the reason will be that voters in key seats didn't know which party to place their tactical vote for.
0 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Kevin Donoghue
@donoghuek.bsky.social
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Stop it. I'm drooling at the mouth and the woman at the table opposite thinks it's because of her.
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New UK Election Special post: The Conservatives could lose almost every seat to efficient tactical voting
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/uk-e...
In all but a handful of seats the polls suggest the combined Lab, LibDem + Green vote is significantly greater than the Tory vote.
1 replies 1 reposts 7 likes
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Chris Downs
@chris-downs.bsky.social
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"UK public services are in crisis not because they are unusually inefficient, but simply because the Conservative government has chosen to spend far too little on them in order to get taxes unusually low compared to other G7 and major European countries." - @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social ⤵️
0 replies 12 reposts 12 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Why UK taxes should be higher
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/why-...
Everyone knows its pointless discussing taxes without talking about public spending, but this is so often forgotten when it comes to looking at historical trends in taxes as a share of GDP.
0 replies 3 reposts 8 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: Why is this election a disaster for the Conservatives? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/why-...
The problem the Tory party (many MPs, its members, donors and press barons) has always had is that they have never really accepted the economic side of the 2019 vote winning strategy.
2 replies 2 reposts 10 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: Why is this election a disaster for the Conservatives? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/why-...
The pandemic revealed Johnson’s true character and the impact of austerity, and the cost of living crisis highlighted the costs of Brexit, which otherwise may have gone unnoticed by many.
0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Why is this election a disaster for the Conservatives?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/why-...
What the bad luck of the pandemic and cost of living crisis have done is reveal the true nature of this administration, which without that bad luck might have remained hidden to many voters
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Ali Messer
@freereed59.net
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Very interesting post on the economic consequences of Conservative policies since 2010.
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: The macroeconomic cost of Conservative government mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-...
By 2024 I estimate GDP was 5% lower as a result of austerity, Brexit and pandemic mistakes. All three major policy errors show a government overriding expertise for ideological/political objectives.
2 replies 34 reposts 45 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: The macroeconomic cost of Conservative government mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-...
A UK government that as a direct result of its policies consistently reduces GDP by around 2% during its time in office is pretty unusual. To reduce it by 5% after 15 years is extraordinary.
0 replies 1 reposts 2 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: The macroeconomic cost of Conservative government
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-...
A UK government that as a direct result of its policies consistently reduces GDP by around 2% during its time in office is pretty unusual. To reduce it by 5% after 15 years is extraordinary.
0 replies 4 reposts 6 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: Should voting in this election be about punishing the Conservatives, signalling to a future Labour government or something else? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/shou...
Why tactical voting could deprive the Tories of being the main opposition party after the election.
0 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Under FPTP if you don't vote tactically for a MP that could win the seat then either your vote doesn't count, or you are indifferent between the two parties that could win. Same for a President. The LibDems becoming the official opposition is a possible outcome of this election.
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Its not different there, because the same principle applies. If you don't vote tactically against the worst outcome, you risk getting the worst outcome. In the UK today that may be a small risk, but as my post argues the possibility of making the LibDems the official opposition is worth voting for
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ClaireJane5
@clairejane5.bsky.social
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Thought-provoking. Have you come across The Movement Forward? Their voting predictions section is interesting.
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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The only thing I'll be voting for is against this government. If you had a vote in the US election for President, who would you vote for?
2 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Try think about you vote as helping to stop a very bad outcome, rather than expressing support for the party you are voting for. Because under FPTP that is the only way your vote matters.
2 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: Should voting in this election be about punishing the Conservatives, signalling to a future Labour government or something else? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/shou...
Why tactical voting could deprive the Tories of being the main opposition party after the election.
0 replies 2 reposts 4 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Should voting in this election be about punishing the Conservatives, signalling to a future Labour government or something else?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/shou...
Do suggestions for departing from tactical voting against the greater evil make sense for this election?
2 replies 3 reposts 2 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: Inside a Macroeconomic Policy Blunder mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/insi...
As he was private secretary for economic affairs to Mrs Thatcher from 1979, Lankester is well placed to describe why Thatcher's monetarist experiment happened and why it failed so badly.
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Mike Wild
@michaeldwild.bsky.social
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"One of the downsides of self-belief is that you can imagine that in areas where you have little knowledge your beliefs are superior to the beliefs of the majority of experts" - great quote that can be applied to so many politicians.
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Nash0rn
@nash0rn.bsky.social
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This is a very interesting post
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: Inside a Macroeconomic Policy Blunder mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/insi...
As he was private secretary for economic affairs to Mrs Thatcher from 1979, Lankester is well placed to describe why Thatcher's monetarist experiment happened and why it failed so badly.
0 replies 3 reposts 3 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Inside a Macroeconomic Policy Blunder
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/insi...
As he was private secretary for economic affairs to Mrs Thatcher from 1979, Lankester is well placed to describe why Thatcher's monetarist experiment happened and why it failed so badly.
2 replies 5 reposts 7 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: Why Quantitative Easing is qualitatively important but quantitatively not so important mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/why-...
The importance of low interest rates rather than QE in explaining rising wealth inequality shows that valuation gains come with income losses (and vice versa).
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: Why Quantitative Easing is qualitatively important but quantitatively not so important mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/why-...
It was austerity and an extended period of low interest rates rather than QE that helped increase wealth inequality after 2010.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Why Quantitative Easing is qualitatively important but quantitatively not so important
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/why-...
Ever since QE was widely introduced by the major central banks, it has occasionally attracted rather outlandish claims about how much it was doing.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Isn't it more accurate to describe it as neoliberalism subordinated to social conservatism? That gives you the key role of immigration and sovereignty, plus you get the authoritarianism, dislike of minorities etc.
2 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: The political right is in an illiberal trap of its own making, which offers their opponents opportunities mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-...
There is a huge contradiction between the neoliberalism of Thatcher and Reagan and controls on immigration and trade.
1 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: The political right is in an illiberal trap of its own making, which offers their opponents opportunities mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-...
While social conservatism may naturally go together with populism, its social conservatism that provides the driving force
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Andrew Watt
@andrewwatteu.bsky.social
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Recommended.
If only this were more widely understood...
#econsky
1 replies 3 reposts 6 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ew post: The political right is in an illiberal trap of its own making, which offers their opponents opportunities
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-...
As a Tory government sets social policy to please Reform voters, so a Labour government will need to worry about the LibDems and Greens.
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: When are large and persistent increases in debt to GDP justified? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/when...
The logic that sees debt to GDP rise during wars and pandemics also applies to spending to green the economy.
0 replies 7 reposts 10 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: When are large and persistent increases in debt to GDP justified? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/when...
It is economically irresponsible not to allow large deficits to fund temporary but essential expenditure, like measures to green the economy.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: When are large and persistent increases in debt to GDP justified?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/when...
Tax smoothing implies that spending to green the economy should not be paid for by higher taxes, but instead should see a rise in the ratio of debt or reserves to GDP.
0 replies 2 reposts 1 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: High on their own supply mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/high...
Much has been written, quite rightly, on how cruel the government's policy towards refugees is. But it is worth putting that aside to instead just focus on the absurdity of the policy.
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: High on their own supply mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/high...
Much has been written, quite rightly, on how cruel the government's policy towards refugees is. But it is worth putting that aside to instead just focus on the absurdity of the policy.
0 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: High on their own supply
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/high...
Among those who understand enough to know how daft and pointless much of government policy now is, including the non-client media, occasional laughter is just the light relief from a mixture of frustration and despair.
0 replies 3 reposts 4 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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Y'days post: The Bernanke Review of Bank of England Forecasting mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-...
The Bank needs a new type of macromodel, it needs to forecast the variable it sets, and it needs to be more open about how it sees the impact of interest rates on the economy.
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: The Bernanke Review of Bank of England Forecasting
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-...
The Bank needs a new type of macromodel, it needs to forecast the variable it sets, and it needs to be more open about how it sees the impact of interest rates on the economy.
0 replies 2 reposts 2 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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New post: Could governments finance deficits by creating money?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/coul...
As interest is paid on reserves, it's not clear why money financing deficits would be inflationary, or compromise central bank independence. But why would governments prefer money finance?
1 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Simon Wren-Lewis
@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social
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ICYMI: The Anatomy and Reasons for UK relative Economic and Political decline over the last decade and a half mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-...
Sunak’s focus on tax cuts and culture wars, that seems so out of touch with voter concerns, stems from Conservative strategy after 1997.
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Peter Harrison
@4harrisons.bsky.social
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This is very good, particularly on the current position as being the outcome of long term conservative strategy (paging @philbc3.bsky.social ) rather than primarily linked to Brexit (as I think some in the FBPE crowd tend to imply).
1 replies 2 reposts 1 likes