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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter@swolecialism.bsky.social |
calling it now: whenever nate releases the nyt/sienna it's gonna have it neck and neck, probably a smallish trump lead, and that lead is going to be basically entirely from, oh, let's say, a 40 to 50 point shift R among nonwhite 18-29s.
6 replies 5 reposts 124 likes
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Keith
@kdb150.bsky.social
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Has any pollster attempted to explain how their numbers appear completely divorced from any realistic outcome among these voter subsets? They must know these numbers look impossible.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Too Big to Fail
@toobigtofail.bsky.social
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Shows Trump leading 48-40 among 18-29 year olds; 50-41 among Hispanics; 48-32 among non-white, non-Black, non-Hispanic; and only 53% of Black voters are currently leaning towards Biden.
2 replies 0 reposts 20 likes
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Nathanael 🧦 Roy
@sporkredfox.bsky.social
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ah, you haven't seen it yet
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Species Being Blog
@speciesbeing.bsky.social
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www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/u...
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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The Silvered Spherical Ideal Median Voter
@swolecialism.bsky.social
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this will be, fundamentally, unchanged from every single other poll this year, and you can belive it's a plausible reflection of the outcome in november or not. oh actually let me add one more thing: nyt/sienna will probably show trump narrowly winning women. maybe even white women
2 replies 4 reposts 82 likes
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Micah
@rincewind.run
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it's Trump +6, up from +3 pre-debate haven't dug into the crosstabs yet, though
2 replies 0 reposts 8 likes