Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social

Yeah - I don't want to unskew the polls, but it is wonky. Biden leads among anyone who voted in 2020, so the gap is entirely people who skipped 2020.

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Micah @rincewind.run [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:15 UTC

Biden's approval has been underwater for a long time at this point, so I'm not surprised that someone who didn't vote in 2020 and is voting now is likely to be a "Biden isn't good and should be replaced" voter there are valid reasons to criticize polling right now but it's consistently pretty bad

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:16 UTC

Overall, we'd need to see the polls be systematically wrong, such that Biden is punished in the same ways, pretty repeatedly, rather than those polls reflecting reality.

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