Buttadeus

George Pearkes @peark.es [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:56 UTC

How every new federal rule making will go from now on. *FTC BAN ON WORKER NONCOMPETE AGREEMENTS DELAYED BY JUDGE

3 replies 14 reposts 35 likes

Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:55 UTC

I do not think it's clear he's not up to the task, tbh. Or at least, that he's any less up to it than Harris or others put forward.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:54 UTC

yeah - it also does not sound like it's a condition that's likely to manifest in "I think I was violently attacked by this person" false memories?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:53 UTC

giddyap

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:52 UTC

There are a ton of people who are shitting bricks but none of them are anywhere near the president, and most of them are going off what they saw on TV, not any interactions with him.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:51 UTC

sorry, a few too many negatives in there - it's that you don't think people need to work to avoid triggering it?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:42 UTC

Yeah. Not great even in his version.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:08 UTC

I saw that but apparently all in the context of the same podcast series? Did he really cooperate with them?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:06 UTC

Did he comment?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:04 UTC

Basically the premise is that the people who answer polls are not typical of their demographics, and that they’re more conservative. I can believe it but I can’t say I have a strong case

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:59 UTC

Basically, I think (a) the polls might be wrong, but (b) we won't know until we know, and who the eff knows.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:51 UTC

I think the problem is that Biden can't do any events without looking old. Because he is old! Which is distinct from any evaluation of his abilities, but the only thing that people seem to be looking for.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:49 UTC

The GMA interview is done, but not yet aired, right?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:46 UTC

Which may be the most important conclusion anyway; this is politics, perception is reality, etc.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:45 UTC

yeah, I would say that data point is extremely suspicious, but may be hard to generalize from.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:44 UTC

Yeah - though that would suggest that Biden's *actual* condition is irrelevant to this.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:43 UTC

Yeah, that's what's bizarre. He's clearly around! There's plenty of film now if you want to evaluate how he sounds on your own. It's just entirely left out of hte discussion.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:42 UTC

But it's not universal; NC-SEN polled at R+5, finished as R+3. OH-SEN was R+7%, came out R+6%. Etc.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:40 UTC

2022 polling shows some warts, so that's something. Fetterman's polling average was -0.5%, he won by just under 5%, which is pretty big error!

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:37 UTC

Like, the default here is that the polls are basically right. Maybe wonky deep in the crosstabs because of small sample sizes, but when you combine multiple polls, well, there's definitely enough of a sample to make statistical predictions.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:35 UTC

It's definitely cope, but it may pay off.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:27 UTC

We got Tina Smith, so, it went well?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:25 UTC

Turnout by year: 2020: 66.6% 2016: 60.1% 2012: 58.6% 2008: 61.6% 2004: 60.1% Democratic votes: 2020: 81M 2016:65.8M 2012: 65.9M 2008: 69M 2004: 59M

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:23 UTC

That is an interesting point

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:22 UTC

yeah, though tbf, Biden's polls have been bad the whole time

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:21 UTC

Yeah, it is June and not October, after all

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:19 UTC

Yeah - there are good reasons to think the polls are fucked up, but it's not conclusive.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:18 UTC

He's referring to the literal vote at the convention.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:17 UTC

That's plausible! But I think a lot of them are likely to not vote again.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:16 UTC

Overall, we'd need to see the polls be systematically wrong, such that Biden is punished in the same ways, pretty repeatedly, rather than those polls reflecting reality.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:13 UTC

Yeah - I don't want to unskew the polls, but it is wonky. Biden leads among anyone who voted in 2020, so the gap is entirely people who skipped 2020.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:06 UTC

If they want Trump to win, they wouldn't demand that he drop out because then he wouldn't win. If they want Trump to lose, then he wouldn't listen to them.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 19:02 UTC

The only relevant question, really, is if it changes anyone's vote

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:56 UTC

Who is Spitalli?

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:55 UTC

Adam's point is that this is the best way to beat Trump, and that the only thing that matters is beating Trump.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:53 UTC

Everyone's giving up, it's a question of which side gives up faster.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:48 UTC

Anyway, I e-mailed Spitalli, let's see

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:38 UTC

I don't know if you need a real e-mail address to confirm a filing, which would be a reason that it's not a more fake one

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:37 UTC

That's probably the best guess, though lord knows who they're hoaxing.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:34 UTC

I don't know why they would have faked it, been caught, and then faked it AGAIN though, except that they're all freaks.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:34 UTC

Yeah, it is suspicious.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:29 UTC

The old filing was just FEC 1, and it's still in their database, but they never seem to have filed FEC2

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:28 UTC

So at the very least, it's a BETTER fake.

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 18:26 UTC

Yeah, poking around now. It's definitely a NEW filing, this one went up last night at 8:33, the other one was June 26. It's naming the Committee Trump-Flynn 2024, and is registered through Bulldog Compliance, and signed by Charles Gantt instead of Bradley Crate.

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