Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social

Basically, I think (a) the polls might be wrong, but (b) we won't know until we know, and who the eff knows.

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Sara Manns @whatsarasaid.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:07 UTC

this poll *is* wrong by which I mean, its sampling and weighting are independent sources of error, which when multiplied compound the errors I don't know how to find out who the people who are definitely going to vote in November are going to vote for, but I know this ain't it

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Phizle @phizle.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 04, 2024 at 14:38 UTC

I think special election results suggest some of the polls are very wrong

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Buttadeus @thewanderingjew.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 03, 2024 at 20:04 UTC

Basically the premise is that the people who answer polls are not typical of their demographics, and that they’re more conservative. I can believe it but I can’t say I have a strong case

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