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Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social |
4698 followers 923 following 262 posts
Climate scientist-communicator focused on extreme events like floods, droughts, & wildfires on a warming planet.
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Weather and climate office hours by Weather West: Weekend edition. I'll discuss the ongoing prolonged and in some cases record-breaking heat across much of the West as well as unfolding wildfire situation. 3pm PT, Saturday 07/06/2024. #CAwx #CAfire 13v8OAwww'>7Q'>www.youtube.com/live...
0 replies 2 reposts 4 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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This *gesturing wildly and in every direction* is utterly exhausting.
0 replies 11 reposts 60 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Many fires erupting across northern CAtoday amid Red Flag conditions at the beginning of what may become a historically severe/long heatwave. Most immediately threatening fire appears to be #ThompsonFire near Oroville. Mandatory evacs now for portions of Oroville proper. #CAwx
1 replies 30 reposts 53 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Pop-up livestream: today (07/02/2024) @ 5:30pm PT to discuss unfolding (and likely historic) heatwave across California and Oregon, as well as rapidly escalating wildfire risk. I may have additional such pop-ups later this week. #CAwx #CAfire ekD3uHwww'>xs'>www.youtube.com/live...
0 replies 5 reposts 8 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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If anything, this heatwave has trended even a bit *hotter* & *longer* in duration than ensemble guidance indicated yesterday. It's possible that inland areas may see little relief for next *10 days.* Check out this WW post; I'll also have live YouTube session @ 2pm.#CAwx #CAfire
0 replies 1 reposts 12 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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New Weather West post: Long-duration and in some cases record-breaking heatwave across much of CA in early July. Significant fire weather concerns across parts of CA this week, esp. given overlap w/July 4th fireworks & associated ignitions. #CAwx #CAfire es/415wea'>90'>weatherwest.com/arch...
1 replies 22 reposts 26 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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This paper will likely be of interest to #wildfire scientists, fire weather meteorologists, and #climate scientists--as well as operational fire folks working "on the ground" or "in the air." I found several of the hypotheses posed here quite compelling... cc @nplareau
2/2
0 replies 3 reposts 5 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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New in International Journal of Wildland Fire:"Future fire events are likely to be worse than #climate projections indicate" (M. Peace & L. McCaw). Discussion includes increased fire-atmosphere coupling, pyroconvection, & nonlinear vegetation response. www.publish.csiro.au...
1/2
1 replies 14 reposts 19 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Thank you!
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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I'll be discussing the upcoming major CA heatwave/fire weather event in more detail in a new Weather West blog post Sat or Sun, and in a YouTube live session @ 2pm PT Mon (as well as a possible additional session later in the week). #CAwx #CAfire
0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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A major and potentially record-breaking heatwave will unfold over the 4th of July holiday next week in California. In this session, I'll discuss heatwave, escalating ildfire risk, and more. Join me live @ 2pm PT Mon 07/01/2024: www.youtube.com/live... #CAwx #CAfire
1 replies 2 reposts 7 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Early signs of potentially major heatwave around 4th of July centered on Northern CA, and this event could bring hot temperatures all the way to the coast (uncommon for early Jul). Early hints at potential for some record-breaking heat & very high grass/brush fire risk. #CAwx
0 replies 24 reposts 42 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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So far there are about ~10 reported or visible new lightning-ignited fires burning mainly in the grasslands and oak woodlands in the eastern San Joaquin Valley and central/southern Sierra foothills. Lightning, some dry, continues and has expanded farther north. #CAwx #CAfire
1 replies 3 reposts 12 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning activity at present with elevated t-storm cells across San Joaquin Valley heading into Sierra foothills. Not much ignition potential in irrigated farmland, but could see some fire starts in grass/brush in foothills. #CAwx #CAfire
1 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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On Mon Jun 24, I will be live on KQED Forum (with other guests) to talk #wildfire in California (9-10am PT). Then, at 1pm PT, I will have a live & interactive YouTube office hour to discuss recent and ongoing record #heat and extreme precipitation/#flood events globally. m/live/Q_VVdLDK_HE'>youtube.com/live/Q_V...
1 replies 4 reposts 20 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Remnant moisture from former TS Alberto has indeed ended up generating a few scattered t-storms along Central CA coast. While widespread lightning not expected, isolated C-G strikes from cells containing little/no rain could potentially cause a few fire starts. #CAwx #CAfire
1 replies 2 reposts 10 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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On Mon Jun 24, I will be live on KQED Forum (with other guests) to talk #wildfire in California (9-10am PT). Then, at 1pm PT, I will have a live & interactive YouTube office hour to discuss recent and ongoing record #heat and extreme precipitation/#flood events globally. m/live/Q_VVdLDK_HE'>youtube.com/live/Q_V...
1 replies 4 reposts 20 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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New live "virtual office hour" on Mon, 6/24 @ 1pm PT. Topic of discussion: The remarkable record-breaking heat, precipitation, and flood extremes that are (once again) unfolding across the Northern Hemisphere this summer. Come with your questions! www.youtube.com/live...
0 replies 3 reposts 8 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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This east-to-west trajectory is unusual but not unheard of. After traversing nearly northern MX overland, remnants have weakened into remnant swirl w/scattered showers/t-storms. Still, this may yield few showers/t-storms over parts of southern & central CA over wknd! #CAwx
3/3
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Notably, Alberto was not an East Pacific basin tropical system, but formed in Gulf of Mexico! Its westward trajectory brought a notably significant coastal storm surge (for a system of modest TS strength!) in parts of TX, along w/much-needed rain in N. MX & NM. #TXwx #NMwx
2/3
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Remnant moisture and "spin" (vorticity) from former Tropical Storm Alberto has brought a litany of unusual weather (early-season rain, severe t-storms, flash floods, and a major dust storm/haboob) to TX, NM, AZ, and northern MX over the past 3 days. #CAwx #TXwx #NMwx #AZwx
1/3
1 replies 1 reposts 14 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Finally: This year I am working to scale up my YouTube channel and the live & interactive "office hours" sessions I now host there regularly on a very wide range of weather, climate, wildfire, and "newsy" Earth science-related topics. Check it out! www.youtube.com/@wea...
4/4
1 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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However, I do think this "top down" posting approach facilitated by Fedica is a *much* better option than manual cross-posting I attempted for past 1.5 years. You will see all of my original content directly, & un-garbled, on each platform. Woo! 3/4
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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I am still most active in responding to comments & engaging w/community via Twitter/X & on my own Weather West blog, though I do check in elsewhere. It's simply not possible to be equally active w/replies/re-shares everywhere now that social communities are widely fragmented. 2/4
1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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I am now directly posting all "top down" content (i.e., content that isn't a reply or re-share on a specific platform) on Twitter/X, Bluesky, Mastodon, & Threads via Fedica! (Unfortunately animated large gifs/images still won't work via Bluesky; fingers crossed that changes!) 1/4
1 replies 0 reposts 21 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Wildfire season across interior Southwest kicking into high gear, w/multiple large smoke plumes readily apparent following Red Flag conditions & amid moderate to severe drought. #SouthForkFire/#SaltFire in/near Ruidoso have burned structures & forced mass evacuations. #NMwx #AZwx
0 replies 6 reposts 10 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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It's pathological at this point...
0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Smoke plumes from three active grass/brush fires in NorCal are visible on weather radar this PM. These wind-driven fires are putting out a fair bit of smoke, as well as some shallow pyrocumulus clouds at times. #AeroFire near Copperopolis presently of most concern. #CAfire #CAwx
0 replies 5 reposts 11 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Multiple new fires popping up today precisely where you'd expect given the conditions: in primarily grass and brush in the foothills ringing the Sacramento Valley, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. #SitesFire #DouglasFire #AeroFire.
0 replies 5 reposts 13 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Attending the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting in Dec. 2024? Then please consider submitting an abstract to our session: Hydroclimate and Extremes in the Western United States in a Changing Climate (primary convener: Wei Zhang)! #AGU24 agu'>3'>agu.confex.com/agu/a...
0 replies 3 reposts 6 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Two primary wildfires of interest right now in CA are #PointFire (near Healdsburg) and #PostFire near Gorman. Both remain highly active & are burning in primarily brush/grass (& smaller-scale evac orders w/both). Will discuss tomorrow during YouTube office hours. #CAwx #CAfire
0 replies 9 reposts 21 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Pop-up live weather & climate office hours session: 06/17/2024 @ 10am PT. Topic: I'll discuss recent surge in early-season wildfire activity in CA, including status of ongoing fires, weather conditions, and what's to come later this summer. #CAwx #CAfire do3_1bwww'>kE'>www.youtube.com/live...
0 replies 2 reposts 9 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Recent fire weather forecasts and warnings are coming to fruition as multiple significant wildfires pop up from SF North Bay area southward to SoCal interior. Each red circle depicts a "hotspot" on satellite imagery associated w/an active wildfire as of this post. #CAwx #CAfire
1 replies 2 reposts 9 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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#PointFire now likely well in excess of 100 acres and there are also some (limited scope) mandatory evacuations orders now in effect. With continued gusty winds and fairly low humidity into tomorrow, this will be one to watch. #CAwx #CAfire
0 replies 2 reposts 7 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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#PointFire in Sonoma Co. (100+ acres west of Healdsburg) is looking quite active this afternoon as winds increase & humidity decreases. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills (including North Bay hills) for tonight and/or Mon.#CAwx #CAfire
0 replies 5 reposts 13 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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So, to summarize, a slow start is likely NOT predictive of what is to come later in the season because of both antecedent conditions (lots of accumulated vegetation growth from two yrs of wetter conditions & low fire activity) and expectation of exceptional heat/dryness to come.
1 replies 3 reposts 8 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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For the record: I do not agree w/recent prognostications and headlines claiming that Fire Season 2024 will likely be a quiet/below average one in Western U.S. It may start slowly/be "below avg" initially, but I strongly expect rapid shift to above-average activity by Aug-Sep.
3 replies 19 reposts 45 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Weather and climate virtual office hours by Weather West: 06/12/2024 edition (1pm Pacific Time). Topics: Update on Western U.S. heatwave, Fire Season 2024, and other global climate happenings. #CAwx #CAfire #CAwater /live/OruQst4zwww'>smU'>www.youtube.com/live...
0 replies 3 reposts 10 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Visually spectacular "sculpted" supercell thunderstorm near Woodrow on high plains of eastern Colorado earlier today (6/8/24). This storm featured a blue-green & ground-scraping shelf cloud (& dust storm beneath) so wide I could not fully capture even with wide angle lens! #COwx
12 replies 130 reposts 535 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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YMMV locally, of course, & there is always an unpredictable component of fire season (where are the human ignitions? Are there dry lightning outbreaks or major autumn offshore wind events?). But predictable component is strongly suggestive of a rapid transition later this year.
0 replies 3 reposts 9 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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So, to summarize, a slow start is likely NOT predictive of what is to come later in the season because of both antecedent conditions (lots of accumulated vegetation growth from two yrs of wetter conditions & low fire activity) and expectation of exceptional heat/dryness to come.
1 replies 3 reposts 8 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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But this summer, we are likely transitioning toward a period of much hotter and drier than average conditions (at least away from immediate Pacific Coast). Most of the interior West is potentially on track for an exceptionally hot/dry summer, and perhaps autumn as well.
1 replies 2 reposts 5 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Why? The past two years have been relatively wet (and not record warm) across most of West, with good mountain snowpack in many areas. That has resulted in low fire activity and lots of extra grass/brush growth. That adds "fuel to the fire" (more in some ecosystems than others).
1 replies 4 reposts 16 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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For the record: I do not agree w/recent prognostications and headlines claiming that Fire Season 2024 will likely be a quiet/below average one in Western U.S. It may start slowly/be "below avg" initially, but I strongly expect rapid shift to above-average activity by Aug-Sep.
3 replies 19 reposts 45 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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This photo is a snapshot from my smartphone camera (those have gotten pretty good, apparently!) but an even wider angle shot from my DSLR will eventually show up on my Instagram account (on which, BTW, I *only* post photographs of clouds!). www.instagram.com/weather.west
2 replies 0 reposts 13 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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Visually spectacular "sculpted" supercell thunderstorm near Woodrow on high plains of eastern Colorado earlier today (6/8/24). This storm featured a blue-green & ground-scraping shelf cloud (& dust storm beneath) so wide I could not fully capture even with wide angle lens! #COwx
12 replies 130 reposts 535 likes
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Daniel Swain
@weatherwest.bsky.social
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