Alex Cruikshanks

🦔 DarkOverord 🦇 @darkoverord.info [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 20:00 UTC

Holy shit! That's really good!!!

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:50 UTC

Keir Starmer (Interahamwe - Holborn and St Pancras)

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:21 UTC

Farage doesn't want to join though. Unless he can do so in at least some sort of equal merger arrangement (which he can't on the current seat disparity), joining the Tories would be an admission of failure.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:19 UTC

Yeah, if a switch happens, it needs to be on an implicit understanding of "We can't do this again. You better be in the tank for Harris now, regardless. Even if she slips on a banana face-first into a red paint tin and accidentally kills Jake Tapper, you still say it was stateswomanlike genius."

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 22:03 UTC

Only to the same extent that any successful secession of a state also does so. I just don't think the EU would credibly be able to sustain a position than an independent Scotland and/or Wales can *never* join the EU. It would be absurd.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:50 UTC

Yeah, I don't think it's some conscious effort, I think it's a snowballing panic about the panic about the panic.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:49 UTC

An independent Scotland also wouldn't have broken off from an EU member state.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:36 UTC

The pundits for the France-Portugal match are talking about scrapping extra time and just going straight to pens. And I admit it's entertaining, but I do kind of find it perverse how there are so many ways of resolving group-stage points ties, but at knockout you can just repeatedly win on penalties

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:27 UTC

Some do, I'm not convinced of "most". Has Harris demonstrated any great ability to change this trajectory or is this just hoping?

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:19 UTC

Yes, I do. See all of the fantasising about an open convention rather than just proposing Harris, the designated successor/replacement, ascend to the top of the ticket in Biden's place - this is literally the fantasists already *pre-emptively* panicking about the likely replacement.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 21:05 UTC

You can't fool me, these are clearly AI generated.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 20:58 UTC

iirc from his first term, Trump sincerely believes that tariffs are paid by foreign governments rather than by domestic importers.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 20:33 UTC

Also no-one likes him.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 19:06 UTC

Not even PR, just AV!

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 18:57 UTC

Yeah, that would make sense, if you're a minority, then you're more conscious of it and have to make more of an active effort to retain a Welsh-speaking community there.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 18:25 UTC

Remember he's French, he'll just think you're calling him a shower here 😜

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 18:03 UTC

And the Labour vote loss in Canterbury was greater, fwiw 😉

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 18:01 UTC

True, but I don't think that's a seat that Labour were ever winning, and the Greens were always likely to have a strong performance there.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:36 UTC

Sorry, should have clarified I meant "resurgence" more in the sense of "looks like they'll win the next election" rather than specifically in terms of vote gains. Labour looking like they'd win the next UK election made them more appealing to some SNP voters.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:34 UTC

No doubt, a lot of damage has already been done, and there's unlikely to be any Labour desire to reverse it on their own initiative any time soon. Improvement will unfortunately likely take years of lower level activism.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:30 UTC

*jilted

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:29 UTC

17 years in power gets stale, Labour resurgence across the whole of the UK, and as @melhistorygeek.bsky.social noted, some good old fashioned scandals.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:27 UTC

Some of this may well be due to the continued media/political pretence that the popular base of anti-trans attitudes are a niche of jilty lefty feminist women, rather than older mostly male social reactionaries, so the latter, not being directly spoken to when the issue was invoked, ignored it.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:22 UTC

Now, indifference to trans people is of course not at all the same as support, and I suspect there's a decent chance media pressure will cause Labour and the Tories to continue to have a disproportionate obsession with it anyway. But there's little sign here that it's a vote-winner.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 17:19 UTC

Oh, and one more thing, though not putting it in this thread because it's a somewhat different issue. But it honestly seems transphobia just doesn't really work as an electoral mobilising or demobilising "culture war" the way Brexit and immigration somewhat do. People just don't seem to care.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:50 UTC

OK, my completed thread of my first overall take on the election results:

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:50 UTC

Thanks 😁

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:48 UTC

And with that, I'm going to end this thread, which ended up longer than I expected. Hope it was somewhat insightful or of interest. Will be interesting to see some demographic breakdowns of the vote in the coming days and weeks.

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:47 UTC

The elephant in the room is of course electoral reform, which is another way this fragmentation could be addressed and stabilised somewhat. I admit I was surprised at how even many Labour figures seemed to vocally consider it last night - but I'd still bet against it after a landslide like this. 20/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:43 UTC

And that leaves moving to the left, trying to win back those Green and Independent voters. In my view, this is the smartest option, but I admit I may be biased by it being my preferred one. More importantly, I think it's a taboo option among Starmer and many of the Labour centrist types. 19/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:41 UTC

They could try and just be competent & liked among their current voter base and hope everyone else remains divided. Which I don't think is a crazy bet, it seems plausible to me. But it's fragile, and it risks allowing the various left challengers to entrench themselves with former Labour voters. /18

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:37 UTC

While Labour got the landslide everyone expected, I think their voter coalition is looking more fragile than many expected. Trying to expand it further right seems futile - if those voters didn't ditch the Tories *this time*, do you really think they will after 5 years of Labour in power?

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:34 UTC

Ironically, the part of the political spectrum that looks most conducive to some sort of alliance is the two big winners in the broad centre who have no real need of it, Labour & the Lib Dems. But in many ways they tacitly co-operated this time and could end up in coalition in Scotland in 2026. 16/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:26 UTC

Reform are likely going to stick around, cutting away a chunk of the Tory vote, for the forseeable future regardless of who the new Tory leader is. The biggest threat to Reform imo isn't a Tory Party closer to their views, but one that looks like it can win an election again. 15/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:22 UTC

I doubt that Lee Anderson, already on his 3rd party in 6 years, will still be a Reform MP in 2029. Just like Douglas Carswell a decade ago, he's served his purpose for Farage, who will fall out with him as he does with everyone, and Anderson isn't needed for crucial cash like Tice or Lowe are. 14/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:18 UTC

Reform are in an awkward spot. They did clearly too well to say their breakthrough attempt failed, but really not well enough to have any real workable leverage over the Tories. Farage's dreams of a Canada-style merger-takeover of the Tories are almost certainly off the table, at least for now. 13/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:13 UTC

OK, onto the right. Either the polls overestimated Reform and underestimated the Tories, or there was a notable last-minute shift between them. I'm more inclined to the latter, as late polls did appear to show some movement that way. Either way, the Tories avoided the dreaded Canada scenario. 12/

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Alex Cruikshanks @alexsaysstuff.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 16:11 UTC

And it's hard to see someone like Galloway, who rather explicitly appeals to "anti-woke" socially conservative Muslim men, coming to any sort of alliance or co-operation with a Green Party led by a young lesbian and whose MPs are 75% female. 11/

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