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Decker Eveleth@dexeve.bsky.social |
615 followers 240 following 286 posts
PRC and DPRK strategic forces analyst with CNA.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I have this calorie tracker on my phone that tells me how many cheeseburgers I burned off after every workout and the only thing it succeeds in doing is making me want to eat more cheeseburgers
0 replies 2 reposts 15 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I will say the Persian food is incredible. There's a couple places within walking distance I would sacrifice my firstborn child to save.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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One of the exciting things about DC is that there are no mediocre burgers here. The burgers are either delicious or borderline inedible.
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Weird Spy Satellite
@weirdsatellite.bsky.social
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SIGINT #8527 from RASR-2 (L CLEARANCE) 1. Pool of Unnameable Prophecies 2. Hallelujah Covers Launch Pads 3. Grimdark Cuttlefishes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Welcome to my hell two months ago
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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This really only makes even a bit of sense when you factor in what an immensely disproportionate level of cultural power Ivys have in the American public conception of leftism and how the US should respond to leftism
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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At least I hear the food is good? 🤷♂️
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Forgot to post here that I've joined the Center for Naval Analyses as an associate research analyst and will soon be relocating to the DMV.
5 replies 0 reposts 25 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I know we like to joke about how we would all desperately avoid an interview request from Isaac Chotiner but the key I feel is to never do anything that would cause Isaac Chotiner to ask you for an interview
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Fallen London is possibly the funniest game this could have happened to
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Are you reelin' in the years? Stowin' away the time Are you gatherin' up the tears? Have you had enough of mine
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Sung by Lady Jessica: "Are you with me, Doctor Yueh? Are you really just a shadow Of the man that I once knew? Are you crazy? Are you high Or just an ordinary guy?"
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Dune: The Musical, Orchestrated by Steely Dan, with such hits as "Chani Don't Lose that Number," "Doctor Yueh," "Bad Stillsuit," and of course, "Kid Charlemagne (totally unedited)"
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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This patt'rn of damageth of surviving soldi'rs shows locations wh're those gents can sustain damageth and still returneth home. If 't be true the soldi'r wast armeth'r'd in the most commonly hitteth areas, this wouldst beest a result of surviv'rship bias
0 replies 6 reposts 41 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Yeah so how about that AI-assisted TEL finding satellites, huh?
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I don't buy the "we've just become complacent" argument. We've had nuclear crisis in the past five years. This is more that the public conceptions about existentialism have changed, and this change has elevated nuclear war from the realm of things people think they can affect.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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...and "nuclear armageddon," which is the public's conception, which isn't treated like a war, and is conceptualized more like some sort of unavoidable natural disaster.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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There seems to be a difference between what I'd call "Nuclear War," how deterrence scholars and operators conceptualize nuclear deterrence and warfighting operations...
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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People have speculated that all sorts of things might trigger a resurgence - Trump's election, 2017 Korea Crisis, 2020 Iran Crisis, 2022 Russian invasion, etc. None of those geopolitical events have generated significant renewed interest from the public, as far as I can tell.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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But I'm not sure I can explain the lack of public awareness. Many heralded Oppenheimer as something that would herald a resurgence, much the The Day After. That obviously has not happened.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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The anti-nuclear weapons movement seems to have lost its foothold in government and among the public. The loss of government influence I can hypothesis about - lack of public support being one, objecting to everything being the other...
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I'm far from the biggest nuclear skeptic - I think deterrence has some broad level effects but things start to breakdown when you get into specifics - but is sort of shocking to see how completely unbothered people are about nuclear risk now.
1 replies 0 reposts 6 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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How did the anti-nuclear movement fall so quickly and so catastrophically? How did we go from Prague Speech to open mockery of the Bulletin and all the catastrophic risk funding getting funneled into studying the consequences of a technology that can't even tell me what a dog is?
6 replies 3 reposts 19 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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My casual assessment the difficulty a lot of old guard academics have in assessing the current security situation with Russia is that many of them seem to believe it is still 1994.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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You might be lucky enough to see the incoming RV shockwave
2 replies 4 reposts 11 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Now to test it on Jeffrey....
1 replies 0 reposts 10 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Was buying a bottle of @funranium.bsky.social's strongest bespoke ultracoffee a good idea? No. It was an excellent idea.
2 replies 3 reposts 30 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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"Have you ever heard the tragedy of Tsar Vasili IV the Wise? I thought not. Its not a story NATO would tell you"
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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"He'll be the next Grant" is a statement that demonstrates a pretty remarkable ignorance of a whole host of things.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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You guys understand that Grant's warfare theories worked because the Union had the manpower advantage, right? You get that's why his attrition strategy worked? Right?
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Is there a word for anti-excitement? Because that's what I feel when I watch the Judas trailer
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Man I love the Word Bearers but sometimes painting them makes me want to die
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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When your PhD advisor starts talking like Sephiroth
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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National strategic weapons programs are incredibly complicated organizationally and you can't just say A then B because on the way from A to B there's like a hundred different people across 20 organizations putting their fingerprints on it for a variety of reasons.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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The argument "we shouldn't pursue strategic level missile defenses because they open up a huge can of worms with how the force structures of our adversaries will evolve to adapt to the problem" is...better, but also effectively unfalsifiable.
1 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I've argued before that "we shouldn't pursue strategic level missile defenses because they don't work" is a TERRIBLE argument before, because we're getting to the point where they probably work enough to be moderately effective.
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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The overarching tragedy of Disco Elysium having the thesis "people can be good or bad regardless of their ideology and strict adherence to a specific ideology leads you down some very bad paths" is that this thesis is most likely to be missed by ideologues.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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I'm hearing from my sources that Yemen is a country at the southwestern edge of the Arabian peninsula
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Nixon traded Okinawa for a textiles deal for God's sake!
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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The WH and the DoD can hire all the academics they want to write policy documents about what the goals of the United States should be in the region or any region or on any topic but such documents have a limited relationship to how leaders will behave.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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There is not "Middle East policy." There are a series of short time horizon decisions made by policymakers in response to domestic political imperatives. The fact that this has been so heavily telegraphed should be taken as an indication of that.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Can someone make a North Korean version of Down Periscope when an incompetent North Korean captain tries to get to the West Coast with a Sinpo-Class sub that's falling apart?
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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Would be very curious to know what sort of lessons the DPRK is taking from the Ukraine War. We can only guess, but I imagine Russian failures and the performance of US weapons would give them serious pause.
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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When I realize that I've started enjoying Iron Banner
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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turning a big dial taht says "Ships" on it and constantly looking back at the President for approval like a contestant on the price is right
1 replies 1 reposts 5 likes
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Decker Eveleth
@dexeve.bsky.social
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"We could solve this with more ships/aircraft/tanks" and like my dudes there is no magic number of F-35 aircraft that is going to change what the president of the united states is going to make the basis of policy in the region
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes