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Filipe Campante@filipecampante.bsky.social |
907 followers 386 following 491 posts
Bloomberg Distinguished Professor (SAIS & Carey Business School), Johns Hopkins University. Political economy, Brazil, and a little bit of futebol.
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Brendan Nyhan
@brendannyhan.bsky.social
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Reminder that even if Democrats drag Biden or someone else over the finish line, the threats to democracy will still remain. One party winning every time is not a plan (nor a democracy). And the president will still have the power to commit crimes with impunity even if the next one doesn't use it.
7 replies 24 reposts 99 likes
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Popehat
@kenwhite.bsky.social
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Watch for the American Right to begin to make claims that by overreacting to and mischaracterizing the Trump immunity decision, critics are causing “unrest”, and then watch for them to use that to justify the things Trump does.
19 replies 109 reposts 586 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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And it had already started last night... bsky.app/profile/fili...
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Biden's collapse in prediction markets right now is something to behold. At this point they're pricing one of Newsom/Whitmer/Michelle Obama (?) as more likely than Biden.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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I know this because I have the historical memory of the Brazilian military dictatorship. The big media companies went along, many lent their support, and now they love to tell stories about the cryptic front page they once published, trying to get around the censors.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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They will try to stay on the regime's good side, keep selling subscriptions for games and cooking, and tell themselves that they are brave truth tellers bc they will publish Krugman columns. Worst case scenario, if the pressure gets too much, they will sell the company to a friend of the regime.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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The sad reality is that they will likely navigate it, bc this is what people and corporations do under autocratic regimes.
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Maybe it doesn’t mean anything, but there is a Biden crash going on in prediction markets…
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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This is absolutely chilling. I put the probability of something like this happening as low, but distinctly positive -- "bounded away from zero," a nerd might say...
0 replies 1 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Yes, but the key is that their belief is that the “unitary executive” is for Republicans only — Democrats can and should be thwarted at every step. This decision perfectly threads that needle, by leaving in the hands of this Court the ability to decide whether and to whom immunity applies.
1 replies 3 reposts 24 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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No one looks at Maduro’s court in Venezuela like, “oh my god, this is an expansion of presidential authority”, as if it’s something that could be used by a president from the other side — if there could be one. It’s something that is meant to be used by one specific side against the other.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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As usual, this oversight is the product of Americans’ inability to see anything besides themselves. People pigeonhole what’s going on within the history of constitutional law and interpretation, and miss the fact that this is straight out of the authoritarian politics playbook.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Even more convinced that people are missing the most important point. This is not “an expansion of presidential authority”, it’s the Court aligning itself with a political project and faction. It’s immunity for some and not for others, depending only on the Court’s interpretation.
1 replies 2 reposts 11 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Glad to know i am not the only one befuddled by this camera angle…
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Tom Pepinsky
@tompepinsky.bsky.social
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6-3 for total immunity is devastating. This isn’t a ruling for 45, this is permission for 47.
4 replies 16 reposts 108 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Judging by the reactions here, I think people haven’t fully appreciated how dangerous today’s ruling is. It’s not “presidents now have immunity”; it’s “SCOTUS gets to decide which presidents have immunity”, which now means “only Republican presidents have immunity”.
0 replies 1 reposts 8 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Only if they are a Republican president. If they are Democrats, then it's an "unofficial act", and they can be prosecuted to the fullest extent.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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He will totally get to prosecute Biden, for "unofficial acts" for which there is no immunity...
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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b-boy bouiebaisse
@jbouie.bsky.social
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SCOTUS is telling us that it has completely signed on to the project of a second Trump administration, which is establishing an elected autocracy.
48 replies 700 reposts 2858 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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That's key: they create a totally blurry distinction between "official" and "unofficial" acts, to be enforced by them, which allows them to ensure that immunity applies to Republican presidents only. All the jokes about Biden calling on SEAL Team 6 can only reinforce this terrifying point.
0 replies 0 reposts 5 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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That's it: very hard to understand/predict based on ConLaw, very easy to understand/predict based on Comparative Politics.
0 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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I guess the fact that they remain the “ultimate arbiter” is exactly what will allow the true objective to be achieved: immunity for Republican presidents only…
0 replies 3 reposts 9 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Wow, yet another “constitutional puzzle” where the Republican supermajority finds the answer to perfectly align with the interests of the Republican Party… Looking forward to legal scholars and SCOTUS journalists breaking down the doctrinal intricacies of this one! www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07...
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Acho q não é questão de ser mais ou menos forte -- Trump demonstrou em 2016 q literalmente qualquer candidato de um dos dois partidos tem chances plausíveis. Trata-se de um problema de coordenação: nenhum democrata, individualmente, tem o incentivo de tomar a iniciativa, dados os riscos envolvidos.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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A Trump win in November will have dire consequences for democracy in Latin America: Bolsonaro’s son, fresh off his dad’s attempted coup after losing the 2022 election, is ominously saying that having Trump back “will pave the way for lots of things”… noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ult...
2 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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I agree, though I am firmly in the “Biden should step aside” camp. People who are anti-Harris, at this point, are part of the problem.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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My point is that parties only do it when they are in a very bad situation, and so it’s not surprising that they’re very likely to lose when they do it…
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Selection bias suggests that, in spite of that, it may not have been the wrong decision anyway.
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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It’s a horrible comparison, but brings to mind the 2016 coordination failure in the GOP that allowed Trump to get the nomination. Very different pathologies, but with fairly similar results from that perspective…
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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I should have said “must be replaced”, rather than “should be replaced”.
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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If you think Biden is a better option than Kamala, then by definition you must think that Biden is not in an unsustainable position.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Here’s one thing I do find incoherent: thinking that Biden should be replaced but not being ok with Kamala. Last night pushed me into the “Biden can’t do it” camp, but to me that has to include the position that Kamala replacing him is an acceptable solution.
2 replies 0 reposts 3 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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I honestly don’t understand the argument. I happen to think he’s capable of being president now, but after last night, it’s pretty clear that the odds of him being capable in three years are very bad. The election is a forward-looking decision, resigning is about now. What am I missing?
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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It’s like, “but these other bets have a lot of variance!” Yes, they do, but when the expected value of your current option goes sufficiently low, you actually need to chase variance!
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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People are seriously overthinking this. It’s obvious that all these alternative scenarios are costly, and potentially very much so, but they have one thing that, at this point, Biden simply doesn’t have: upside.
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Not only that: their odds of being up to the task of being president in three years’ time are astronomically better than Biden’s. That affects their chances now, of course, but goes beyond that.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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That shouldn’t be hard to see. The most damning part of the debate is that, after last night, no one could possibly have any confidence that, in three years, Joe Biden will be minimally capable of performing the job of president.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Biden likes to say “don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative”. Since last night, the alternative “literally any other plausible Democratic nominee” is looking awfully appealing…
1 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Microplastics Sommelier
@leastactionhero.bsky.social
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einstein sent this to curie in 1911 when she was being harassed by tabloids. it contains everything you’d want in such a letter: (1) your haters are trash (2) you’re a baller, a true queen (3) i have determined the statistical law of motion of the diatomic molecule in planck’s radiation field 🧪⚛️
37 replies 1466 reposts 3937 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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People used to think that the decentralization of US elections was a bulwark’s against fraud, but that’s akin to when we thought the Internet would be the end of dictators. By now we should have learned that centralized control is overrated, when “flood the zone with shit” is an available strategy.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Sometimes the truth has to be stated emphatically…
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Referees were the MVPs of that run, one of the least compelling Cinderella stories in sports history.
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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True fact. Dortmund had to survive a legitimately tough group to be in a position to get lucky with a relatively weak bracket.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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One difference between Euros and World Cup is that it's happened multiple times that truly mediocre teams have lucked out and managed to win the Euros (Denmark 92, Greece 04, Portugal 16). It's actually kind of weird that a knockout competition like the WC has never produced that.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Austria must be super excited, and rightly so, at a unique chance of making a deep run -- and who knows? even winning it all. It's happened before...
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Just as everyone else on that side -- that's exactly how Portugal won in 2016, Croatia got to the final in 2018, Dortmund got to the CL final this year, etc. etc.
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Look, as good as Austria have been (and they haven't been thaaat good, Holland won the xG against them quite handily), and as uninspiring as France have been, anyone in their right mind would choose to face Austria rather than France. England got very lucky, no two ways about it...
2 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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It would be such poetry if Italy, having just won consecutive Euros, then go on to miss the third World Cup in a row...
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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Still, a very bad Italy -- which could totally go on to win the tournament, would be the most stereotypically "Italy" thing ever.
2 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Filipe Campante
@filipecampante.bsky.social
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The lopsidedness of the Euro bracket is reaching the point where, if England don't get to the final, they should just shut up shop and let Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland carry the torch.
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes