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Jason Luthor@jasonluthor.com |
In 2016 pollsters undersampled Republican voter turnout for Trump. This was not a limited thing, many pollsters did that. And then they started oversampling to not underestimate turnout again. It's the reason why Biden looks bad in the polling, and why Dems have won mid terms despite polling.
3 replies 1 reposts 9 likes
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Jennifer Winch
@jlwinch1.bsky.social
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Polls are meaningless this early out anyway.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
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Chad Denton
@reluctantlychad.bsky.social
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Could that also have something to do with the really bizarre fact that Democratic candidates in state races now and in 2022 are/were polling much better than Biden?
1 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
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Satisfied Psychic
@satisfiedpsychic.bsky.social
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Also seems like perilously low response numbers are making polling itself really hard to do now.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes