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JimmyC

@jimmyc42.bsky.social

228 followers 162 following 262 posts

Atmospheric scientist. Ideater. Curiously Creative. Liaisoneer. @NWSWPC HydroMetTestbed Coordinator @ CU Boulder.
He/Him
#signaldetection #science #cats #birding

JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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which state of matter are you? 1. Solid 2. Liquid 3. Gas 4. Plasma a. Recovery

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Verification today did not have the claw that our forecast had

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Reposted by JimmyC

Dr. Wendy Bohon's avatar Dr. Wendy Bohon @drwendyrocks.bsky.social
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The Frontiers for Young Minds journal is dedicated to making science available to a younger audience by having scientists work directly with young readers to craft top quality, age appropriate, accessible STEM content.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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the problem still exists because absence of the cyclone. the mean/median track could increase in transparency as the number of members with no cyclone increases. thus the mean track disappears as the cyclone population is reduced. could likewise do this at some baseline intensity as well...

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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"sleepwalking into the abyss" what people are doing is hoping their privilege is secure. until enough people have their privilege taken away, most of us are being dragged into the abyss by the current.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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forecasts are neither pleasant nor smart. id settle for useable.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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a best practice is not "be more correct". if thats possible, cool. but a fluke of correctness should not be a best practice.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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12 hours later, 12z models same depictions. slightly better but for some reason most models had a hard time generating this MCS until later

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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from Monday night, a modeled line turned out to be an MCS. what were the precip forecasts like? Here are the obs from mrms, and then hrrr and rrfs. HRRR had a decent idea but didnt grow upscale; RRFS was really late

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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last day for ffair week 2 and we are back in real time. happy friday!

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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im really bummed we missed the last 2 days of real time ops and models in the ffair experiment. such an active mcs period. the tyranny of the tiny rainfall areas continues.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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did the tag language for severe thunderstorm warning change? (i thought it was catastrophic not destructive)

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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proud of our HMT team for being able to withstand this latest network crash/recovery period. thankful we had an aws web presence or else we would be down too. but im glad we do model surveillance nonstop so we can switch to restrospective case studies. this hurts though.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Leaky eyes when we come together to do good things for each other

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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going back in time, we are back in business. good thing we run all the things all the time so we can time travel to not miss a day of the experiment. Now to forget what happened so I dont give away the solutions.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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quite the network outage taking down half our experiment.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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network outage? refs crash. pandemonium, stay tuned for day 2 of FFaIR...

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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abbreviated Day 1 ERO exercise: MCS based marginal in the upper Midwest (potential bow head heavy rain), monsoon slight for heavy rain and slow moving storms, Florida and NC had quite the intense hourly rain from refs members.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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thankfully the second order terms for things worth reading are opposed to that term. my other first order term is proportional to caring and degree of interest and is also opposite to your term.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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climo for my house is 4" if rain for June. we have had 1" so far. wetlands dried up in days. kind of remarkable since we had a very wet JFM. But April-May was 1.5" below and now June below. quite the precip whiplash

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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should also focus more on collecting high quality, high temporal resolution rainfall data: remote sensing, gauges, etc. Not to mention river data for impacts to watersheds. calibration, validation, verification is critical as we try to improve the process models. the future relies on past data

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Reposted by JimmyC

Pookleblinky's avatar Pookleblinky @pookleblinky.bsky.social
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There's an interesting problem in digital preservation, which is that preservation only exists actively. Only the things you actively move to new formats, survives. Community is probably the same way: it has to be actively maintained in order to outlive whatever spot it's currently in.

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Reposted by JimmyC

Reposted by JimmyC

Yell In a War's avatar Yell In a War @jelenawoehr.bsky.social
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Many common medications, including antidepressants, can reduce your heat tolerance. If you live in a place that doesn’t usually get this hot, now is a good time to check all of your prescriptions’ side effect lists to see if they include sensitivity to heat / heat intolerance.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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430ish first light is always wild too.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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A crisp 38 here in spokane with a frost advisory.

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Reposted by JimmyC

Liz Neeley's avatar Liz Neeley @lizneeley.bsky.social
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A friend is brainstorming animal mascots for a project on academic literature search. I’m making an impassioned case for the acorn woodpecker: ✅ good at finding tasty things ✅ great at caching treats for later ✅ may need to reconsider their filing system ✅ maybe questioning their life choices

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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In the addiction sense? Possibly.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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"it came without a watch" a 2% tor area doesnt garner a watch. low prob events that involve high potential hazards (e.g. supercells w/ tornadoes) are the toughest thing to account for in a tiered warning system. there are no easy answers, products, process. all tornadoes do damage in populated areas

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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missed us by 5 miles. went between us and our farmers market.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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a little. tree on a house had some injuries in gaithersberg. and a few others related to storms. so far

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Half inch. Flood is hatched gray.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Hope youre all ok. Safe travels.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Crazy day in the midatlantic. Our test domain for the flash flood and intense rainfall experiment was well positioned. model forecasts also did ok but this event had some predictability challenges. #hmt #ffair

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Wishlist: cell providers explain warning polygon and WEA with location services, wifi and cell.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Yeah i wish we could get nws here, it would help the migration. Plus emergency management (pete from moco) would be great too.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Radarscope is such a great tool.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Yeah tdwr radars showed the multiple hooks. So small, light reflectivity features.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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Flood watch where it barely rains, and then surprise! Twisters with tiny supercells!

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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id call it an MCS fest but its more like 3 night carnival.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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We overlapped at SPC briefly. Great human, great forecaster, and a life well lived.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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just our skewed perspective of max(ignorance, protection, ease).

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Reposted by JimmyC

JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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like 75% of amateur birding is just a small birb tweeting once a minute, close by, laughing at you cause you cant find/see it, and when you give up they just follow you around flexing/tweeting cause they realize they are invisible to you.

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JimmyC's avatar JimmyC @jimmyc42.bsky.social
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a good warning system doesnt only need good warnings. Predictability, anticipation, expectation are all things we should be communicating. the good warning is the cue, the verification that action is needed now.

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