Never use the « Imagine if Ru did XâŠÂ» construction to criticize another stateâs bad behaviour. Just stop it. The probability that Ru has actually done X and even worse approaches 1, so the construction virtually always makes one look like an idiot at best or a Ru apologist.
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The big story of the European elections is Le Pen winning big and Macron dissolving parliament, but imho, this bizarre snippet from Bulgariaâ a conman felon w a private militia and a party called Majestic Splendor cleared the 4% threshold in a shocker unpredicted by any pollsterâ deserves more attn.
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Surveys could show 100% support among a tired and misinformed Western public for negotiating an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war, but no amount of wishful thinking can change the reality that Pu doesnât offer compromise. Heâs sought to control Kyiv govt since 2014. He wants Ukraine to surrender.
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Reposted by Maria Popova
My friend @jeffkopstein.bsky.social , one of the most prominent researchers on contemporary antisemitism active today (and someone whose rigorous *empirical* work on the phenomenon is sorely needed), shared a photo of a "Wanted" poster targeting him on the UC-Irvine campus.
Despicable.
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Haha, well -put
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Yup, thatâs the first clue I picked up
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Well, sure. The problem is with those who think that if somehow âtoo manyâ people (whatever that means) think X, X must actually be problematic, simplistic, a mistake, etc. The new contrarian articles on Ukr arenât getting us closer to the truth, but muddying it
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On point. What is this, btw? Looks so realâŠ
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Weâre in for a barrage of academic articles seeking to challenge the consensus that Ruâs attack on Ukr is unprovoked, imperialist aggression and the q is how, not whether to help Ukr. Sometimes consensus truly exists bc the truth is obvious and challenging it is neither necessary nor a brave act.
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The main purpose of the « Ru goals are unclear » rhetorical device is to float the idea that negotiations would be useful because they would reveal Ruâs supposedly true goals and they might not be unacceptable to Ukr and to all who want conquest to be a thing of the past.
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If Ru had limited goals (taking « Ru-speaking areas » or keeping Ukr out of NATO/EU) all it had to do was annex DNR/LNR, continue corruption Ukr through oligarchs, and keep reminding NATO Ukr shouldnât be let in. The West is deferentialâ Ukrâs NATO chances are still nil, as in 2014-2022âŠ
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I routinely see claims that Ruâs war aims are unclear.
Theyâre crystal clear: control of Ukrâs central govt, destruction of Ukrâs national identity through murder/re-education, and imposition of Ru-defined identity. Post-2014 Ru actions in occupied Ukr and run on Kyiv prove itâŠ
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I agree. I donât think any good faith negotiations are forthcoming. Only warning that anything else than an offer of Ukraineâs immediate NATO membership is entirely unserious
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As long as Pu isnât signalling, Ru would accept rump Ukraine in NATO in exchange for a territorial settlement, but hinting at Western-brokered regime change in Kyiv, itâs clear he doesnât want negotiations, but vassalization/occupation of Ukraine without further Ru military losses.
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Many have rightly criticized the Biden admin for forbidding Ukr to strike targets in Ru w US weapons. Iâll stress this: the policy and Ukrâs persistent pushback to it lay bare the absurdity of claims that the West is pressuring/tricking Ukr into fighting instead of « allowing » it to sue for peace.
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Reposted by Maria Popova
I don't know anything about political messaging or advertising or reaching voters in a fragmented media age or anything else like that.
I just, at a gut level, want every voter in America to hear the mantra "felon, fraud, rapist, insurrectionist" four times a day for the next 30 weeks.
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If it wants to restore peace and security in Europe, the West needs to send Ru a strong/credible signal that it would NOT let it slowly/incrementally ré-establish control over parts of Europe. So far, Ru has mostly gotten signals that reinforce their chosen strategy.
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Pro-Ru trolls will continue repeating the « scuttled peace deal » manipulation ad nauseam, but at this point there's no good faith discussion/ambiguity about what happened during the spring 2022 meetings between Ru and Ukraine. Ru demanded that Ukraine surrender, Ukraine refused. End of story.
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Haha, yes, indeed, the country Georgia,đŹđȘ ,Sakartvelo. I wouldnât comment on the state of Georgia
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Exactly
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would be replaced by legal and extralegal repression of the opposition, as well as electoral engineering, media manipulation, and weaponization of law which would make free and fair elections improbable.
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It's important for intl journalists covering the massive protests in Georgia to understand that the details of the law that was the trigger are irrelevant; the size of the protest reflects widespread fear that the govt is suspending democracy and if the protest fails, democracy fails too and...
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đ
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Touché!
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At US passport control (late 2000s)
Agent: why are you going to the US?
Me: You to give a talk at a university
Agent: about what?
Me: Rule of law
Agent (looks at my Bulgarian passport again): what does a Bulgarian know about the rule of law?
Me: come again?
(He laughed it off and let me through)
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Donât trust any expert who says we donât know what Ruâs aims in Ukr are. They are clear!
Plan A: full control of the central govt and directing it to enact policies to destroy the Ukr nation as Ukr define it.
Plan B: physical destruction of Ukr state/nation, as much as conventional warfare allows.
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Journalists (w the help of a few biased experts) tend to underestimate Ru's desire to control or destroy Ukr state and overestimate Ru's capacity to win the war. The result is that too many people think compromise and independent Ukr in new borders is both wise and realisticâŠ.
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