Sinem Adar 's avatar

Sinem Adar

@sinemadar.bsky.social

338 followers 105 following 212 posts

Associate (CATS/SWPBerlin). PhD @BrownSociology&MSc @LSE. Views personal. Writes in EN/TR

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Turkey’s Syria policy is an example to that mid-to-long term costs of military overstretch and foreign policy adventurism outweigh short-term benefits. Especially when accompanied by a lack of strategic thinking and reliable partners.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Turkey’s Syria policy is an example to that mid-to-long term costs of military overstretch and foreign policy adventurism outweigh short-term benefits. Especially when accompanied by a lack of strategic thinking and reliable partners.

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Rima I Anabtawi's avatar Rima I Anabtawi @rimaanabtawi.bsky.social
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Surveyed Middle East scholars see dark motives behind Israeli actions in Gaza, with a majority of respondents saying the aim is to make Gaza uninhabitable so as to force Palestinians

www.brookings.edu/articles/glo...

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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An interesting debate among pro-government journalists about the basis of loyalty makes me think that loyalty to Erdogan should now be complemented by overt expressions of loyalty to the AKP-MHP alliance.

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Avishay Ben-Sasson-Gordis's avatar Avishay Ben-Sasson-Gordis @avishaybsg.bsky.social
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And the documents include a letter from the chief of national police to the Attorney General stating that Gvir went over his head and secretly instructed his deputy to not protect the convoys. Ben Gvir is now attempting to promote that deputy to chief of police.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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ii) the narrative of a strong Turkey able to play hardball with global powers, iii) corruption&iv) impunity. Nevertheless, the AKP’s local election losses weaken Erdoğan’s leverage within his alliance&will erode the regime’s stability and its control over competing factions."

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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and form temporary alliances against pro-reform actors that are largely sidelined or marginalised. Despite this elite fragmentation, however, the ruling alliance is held together by four elements: i) securitisation of the Kurdish question,

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Such intra-alliance tensions are intrinsic to Turkey’s political system as factions compete for influence. During times of crisis, groups with strong stake in the status-quo tend to dominate the public debate

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Yet, these disagreements do not follow strictly partisan or ideological lines. Some pro-AKP journalists are indeed closer to Bahçeli, see Gezi (and Kobane) as key to national security, and do not expect any fundamental changes.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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My two cents about the most recent episode of intra-alliance tensions in Turkey (appeared in the latest CATS-Network Round-Up) 👇 "Besides reconfiguring the electoral dynamics between the AKP and the CHP, the local elections also exposed tensions within the People’s Alliance.

1 replies 4 reposts 9 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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ii) the narrative of a strong Turkey able to play hardball with global powers, iii) corruption&iv) impunity. Nevertheless, the AKP’s local election losses weaken Erdoğan’s leverage within his alliance&will erode the regime’s stability and its control over competing factions."

0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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and form temporary alliances against pro-reform actors that are largely sidelined or marginalised. Despite this elite fragmentation, however, the ruling alliance is held together by four elements: i) securitisation of the Kurdish question,

1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Such intra-alliance tensions are intrinsic to Turkey’s political system as factions compete for influence. During times of crisis, groups with strong stake in the status-quo tend to dominate the public debate

1 replies 1 reposts 2 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Yet, these disagreements do not follow strictly partisan or ideological lines. Some pro-AKP journalists are indeed closer to Bahçeli, see Gezi (and Kobane) as key to national security, and do not expect any fundamental changes.

1 replies 1 reposts 1 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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My two cents about the most recent episode of intra-alliance tensions in Turkey (appeared in the latest CATS-Network Round-Up) 👇 "Besides reconfiguring the electoral dynamics between the AKP and the CHP, the local elections also exposed tensions within the People’s Alliance.

1 replies 4 reposts 9 likes

Reposted by Sinem Adar

Nate Schenkkan's avatar Nate Schenkkan @nateschenkkan.bsky.social
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This is a useful analysis of what is happening in Turkey politically in light of the seemingly divergent results of the national and local elections

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Turkey recap's avatar Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social
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Recap is out! Inside: ⚖️Replaced Hakkari mayor gets jail time 🇨🇳Fidan goes to China 🫵Ankara condemns Israel, threatens Kurds in Syria 🧐Top court mandate questioned again 🏙️Building collapse, small quake shakes İstanbul 🏐Meme war distracts from victory

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Here is the short follow-up piece (as part of the CATS Network's Round-Up series) to my analysis published on Turkey's March 31 local elections earlier this week. Let me know if you need the pdf of the Round-Up.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Here is the short follow-up piece (as part of the CATS Network's Round-Up series) to my analysis published on Turkey's March 31 local elections earlier this week. Let me know if you need the pdf of the Round-Up.

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Reposted by Sinem Adar

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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About two months late to the discussion but if you are still not bored with Turkey local election analysis or if you want to take a break from the other elections taking place elsewhere, here is my two cents about March 31 results👇

carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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ps: On Friday, I will have a shorter piece following up where I left here.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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About two months late to the discussion but if you are still not bored with Turkey local election analysis or if you want to take a break from the other elections taking place elsewhere, here is my two cents about March 31 results👇

carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

1 replies 5 reposts 5 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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The CHP’s ability to reroute Turkey off of its authoritarian path depends on whether it can bolster the leverage the party gained in the local elections with continued mass support and a firm attitude about its red lines in domestic politics and foreign policy.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Positive for democratic resilience is that Turkey's main opposition party stands firmly behind the right to political representation and shows solidarity against government-appointed trustees.

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Lisel Hintz's avatar Lisel Hintz @liselhintz.bsky.social
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Another mayor from a pro-Kurdish party is replaced by a gov-appointed trustee. Protest ban in place.

Harun Ercan and I show how permissive prejudice shapes local repression. The AKP calculates it can get away with open democratic subversions against Kurds.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Ankara appointed a trustee to Hakkari, where the DEM Party won the majority of the votes in the March local elections. This aligns well with AKP leadership's dual strategy of co-optation÷-and-rule vis-a-vis the opposition. It also follows the logic of alliance-binding 👇

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Turkey recap's avatar Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social
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⚓️"Turkey to teach Blue Homeland doctrine in schools" with Ryan Gingeras via the Greek Current.

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Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Despite elite fragmentation within Turkey's ruling alliance, securitisation of the Kurdish question, the narrative of a strong Turkey that is able to play hardball with global powers, corruption and impunity hold different factions together.

0 replies 4 reposts 6 likes

Sinem Adar 's avatar Sinem Adar @sinemadar.bsky.social
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Despite elite fragmentation within Turkey's ruling alliance, securitisation of the Kurdish question, the narrative of a strong Turkey that is able to play hardball with global powers, corruption and impunity hold different factions together.

0 replies 4 reposts 6 likes

Reposted by Sinem Adar

Howard Eissenstat's avatar Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social
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Just noting that the diplomatic and reputational cost of the US throwing shade on the ICJ ruling is only going to go up.