|
Jeff Berardelli@weatherprof.bsky.social |
1098 followers 141 following 98 posts
Same @WeatherProf as Twitter. Posting about climate and weather. Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist WFLA NBC Tampa
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
As the world warms, certain basins are seeing a spike in rapid intensification(RI) due to hotter ocean water. In the Atlantic the trend on the strongest of hurricanes is upward. A recent study shows RI is increasing 4.4 mph per decade, adding ~18 mph over the last 4 decades.
0 replies 2 reposts 5 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
There’s been a lot of research on hurricanes and hotter water. One consistent finding in the Atlantic is that a greater proportion of storms become majors. The chance that a run-of-the-mill hurricane becomes a major (cat 3,4,5) is now 2X greater than it was a few decades ago.
0 replies 4 reposts 12 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
#Beryl was able to take advantage of exceptionally warm water/ high octane fuel due to a favorable, nurturing atmosphere.
The Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean have been historically warm since last summer, much of it due to greenhouse warming, lately running ~2.5-3F above normal.
0 replies 5 reposts 11 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
“When someone shows you who they are, believe them”
While this can’t be said about every season, in 2024 it’s true.
#Beryl is now the strongest hurricane on record this early in season. It’s showing us exactly what hurricane season 2024 is going to be. Prepare now just in case.
0 replies 1 reposts 6 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
#Beryl is the strongest its been, 140mph winds, moving over island of #Carriacou
Strongest hurricane on record (since 1851) to make landfall there & the strongest ever in the area, since Hurricane Allen (early Aug) which eventually became strongest Atl hur by wind 190mph.
0 replies 4 reposts 6 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Berardelli Bonus: May and June were excruciatingly hot in Mexico. In many respects the worst heatwave in modern history there. @WWAttribution did a study and found the heat to be 35-200X more likely due to climate pollution.
0 replies 6 reposts 13 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yes usually starting in May or June.
1 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Watching history again: Not sure where this storm will level off, but seems likely at least high end cat 4 once it’s done deepening today. Worst case scenario for islands that have no experience with a storm of this magnitude, being so far south in the island chain. #Beryl
0 replies 2 reposts 6 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
If everything were to line up perfectly, meaning no shear, no dry air, perfect structure, then this is the potential maximum winds that can be achieved by #Beryl
So far, Beryl has had a very conducive environment, but by midweek shear will increase in the Central Caribbean
0 replies 3 reposts 9 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
#Beryl is now forecast to be a cat 4 storm before it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow AM!
At this rate it may become the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic.
As of now the strongest is Audrey 1957. That was in the Gulf, where June hurricanes are more common.
3 replies 23 reposts 60 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Development as far east as TS #Beryl this early in season is very rare, esp for canes.
Here’s all hurricanes on record that occurred in June-July 2nd since 1851.
Beryl may end up being the earliest hurricane to develop so far east.
Note how most June hurricanes are close to US.
1 replies 5 reposts 11 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Tropical Depression 2 has formed, soon to be #Beryl. It will likely become a hurricane and hit the Lesser Antilles Monday. As it stands right now, it will probably continue moving westward towards the Yucatán/ Central America due to a heat dome over Florida & SE protecting us. That could change.
0 replies 2 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
A reminder that #ShowYourStripes day is this Friday June 21st - every year on the summer solstice! Get your US city stripes here: www.climatecentral.org/graphic/2024...
And get your international #WarmingStripes here: showyourstripes.info
0 replies 6 reposts 14 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Your chance to spread the word about how quickly our climate is changing. There’s no better way to communicate this than with @edhawkins.bsky.social Warming Stripes.
#ShowYourStripes day is THIS Friday! Download: showyourstripes.info
Choose the type of visual / region and post away!
0 replies 20 reposts 32 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Since the 1970s, there's been no trend (up or down) in Tampa Bay Area fire weather. By mid century, using global climate model ensembles, drying is likely. As temp increases, moisture increases too BUT not quite as much, leading to a moisture deficit (VPD) & more fire danger
0 replies 0 reposts 7 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
In today's Climate Classroom we discuss the US Green Industrial Revolution with @_jay_turner from Wellesley College. He and his students track US clean energy supply chain progress on The Big Green Machine website. He says the IRA has added a big boost. www.wfla.com/weather/clim...
0 replies 1 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
En Fuego!! Scorching heat in the Bay Area today. Ruskin tied its all-time hottest temp at 100, and broke its May hottest day. Sarasota’s all-time hottest May day. Tampa ties its all-time hottest May day.
1 replies 0 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The Gulf of Mexico Loop Current is record hot right now, and so is the entite Gulf! When hurricanes travel over Warm core eddies like the high octane fuel of the Loop, the storms often explode! They can gain 20 to 40% in intensity. Here’s more… #extremeweather #climate #climatechange #hurricane
1 replies 15 reposts 22 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Last night on PBS Newshour we spoke about the active Tornado season in the Plains, the upcoming hurricane season and also climate change. www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...
0 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
In today’s Climate Classroom: We dedicated 30 minutes today to breaking down the new NOAA hurricane season forecast and the factors which may make this an extraordinary (NOAA) hurricane season.
www.wfla.com/weather/trac...
0 replies 3 reposts 7 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
New NOAA and CSU forecast side by side. Keep in mind the average is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors. This NOAA forecast is ~50% above average season.
More here: www.wfla.com/weather/trac...
0 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
“Berardelli says he feels a moral & scientific obligation to address climate change directly. People can disagree but I don’t get my information from people, I get it from scientists who study it. Just because it’s become partisan doesn’t change the facts”
www.wmnf.org/wflas-jeff-b...
0 replies 12 reposts 43 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Hyperactive 2024 Hurricane Season? Quite possibly. GFX show record warm tropical Atlantic with classic horseshoe pattern and Pacific evolving towards cool La Niña which promotes rising air over Atlantic MDR. Also, robust model agreement showing steering flow into Caribbean. All signs blinking red!
0 replies 16 reposts 32 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
In my Climate Classroom today: “Offshore wind development is killing whales. Wind turbines cause cancer. Electric vehicles are worse for climate change than gas cars. These are all common and somewhat shocking claims – but none of these are true.” www.wfla.com/weather/clim...
0 replies 2 reposts 11 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
99% of climate scientists agree, the climate is warming and humans are to blame mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels. Here’s the issue. Only 55% of Americans know that virtually all scientists agree. That’s called the Consensus Gap and it exists due to deliberate disinformation.
0 replies 8 reposts 24 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Comparing March 2024 Sea Surface Temps (SST’s) in the Tropical Atlantic with other active hurricane seasons. SST's can change quickly - and we will still see changes as we head into hurricane season - but these years ultimately produced large numbers of storms. (Season named storm # on right).
0 replies 4 reposts 6 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Thank you!
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yesterday for my Climate Classroom we sat down with @MichaelGerrard of @SabinCenter @ColumbiaLaw to discuss the dozens of climate lawsuits working their way through the US and international courts, the current status and overall significance. www.wfla.com/weather/clim...
1 replies 1 reposts 3 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Climate warming is life and death to #coral. In the 1980s FL Keys peak summer SST’s were a safe 84. But the past few years the peak is ~87+, over the bleaching threshold, causing back to back events w/ no recovery time. Then add in an extreme event like last summer? It’s Light’s out!
1 replies 16 reposts 35 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
It’s so crazy how far above record levels the North Atlantic is (the entire Atlantic too actually). This is the sea surface temperature departure from average each March since 1940.
1 replies 19 reposts 32 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
In Today’s Climate Classroom, we interviewed a former oil & gas worker, now an environmental hero @hiattus @betterbayou to talk about methane and fracked gas. It was both a fun and sobering conversation. www.wfla.com/weather/clim...
@WFLAVal
0 replies 3 reposts 9 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
On the bar graph, these show storms per season.
0 replies 0 reposts 1 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Comparing El Niño top to La Niña bottom, it’s clear to see the difference. Note: no hurricanes in western Gulf during El Niño. Episodes are defined by +-.5C in Nino 3.4 Aug Sept Oct. 12 of each since 1986.
0 replies 2 reposts 7 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
With La Niña expected to develop this summer, we can expect a significant uptick in Atlantic hurricane season, especially as it pertains to hurricanes and major hurricanes. Since the mid 1980s here’s a look at the difference between La Niña (red) and El Niño (green) 1/
4 replies 5 reposts 17 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
In today’s Climate Classroom, we discuss how I walk the walk for climate change, a bit of my personal story on how I became so active in climate awareness and some ways you can help. www.wfla.com/weather/clim... @WFLA
0 replies 0 reposts 8 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Upon seeing said map, forecasters in Hurricane Alley went into collective cardiac arrest. Dark red = where oceans are record warm = virtually ALL of the Atlantic main development region.
5 replies 32 reposts 55 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Have you ever seen a Fallstreak Hole Punch cloud? Clouds are often made of super cooled water droplets which means despite being below freezing, the drops aren’t frozen. But a disturbance like a plane can force the drops to freeze into ice crystals and fall out in a streak making a hole.
0 replies 0 reposts 9 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
As if we don't get enough summer in Tampa, our cold now fades away a month earlier than it did a century ago (defined as the last day at or below 40 degrees) Used to be early March. Now it's early Feb and often January now-a-days. Urbanization and manmade climate change
0 replies 2 reposts 8 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The Atlantic Ocean is deep into uncharted territory. What's going on and what does this mean for hurricane season? Here's my analysis. It was our discussion in Today's Climate Classroom show. www.wfla.com/weather/clim...
1 replies 12 reposts 19 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Anomalies in main development region in uncharted territory! Visual compares some of the most active hurricane season Feb SST's w/ 2024. 2005, 2010, 2020 were big seasons. But SST's don't hold a candle to 2024. Still time for moderation, hopefully it does. (# on right=named storms in that season)
2 replies 55 reposts 84 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Peak jet stream 265 mph, Newark to Lisbon flight hits 835 mph - likely a new record. Flight arrives an hour early. Climate change a possible factor with 2% increase in speed per 1C temp increase (2.5X for fastest winds). We are at 2C today so ~10% wind increase. Sound barrier not broken.
1 replies 6 reposts 12 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Wicked fast jet this weekend caused by convergence of El Niño spiked subtropical jet, with northern branch jet, over DC and NYC. Further enhanced by contrast of cold and warm bubbles north and south. 1/
1 replies 8 reposts 14 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Yes I agree Eliot. I wasn’t intentionally trying to sensationalize, rather just attempting a different way of visualizing. But I can see how some in the public would be confused by this.
0 replies 0 reposts 0 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
As communication, awareness and response have improved, the former leading cause of direct deaths in hurricanes - storm surge - has decreased. Now rain flooding is blamed for the lion share. But only ~50% of tropical cyclone deaths are direct. Many come after the storm.
1 replies 3 reposts 18 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
“Alarmingly, Wehner explained that from his potential intensity analysis, the Gulf of Mexico has the greatest risk of being hit by one of these potential Category 6 storms in the Atlantic Basin.” www.wfla.com/news/hillsbo...
1 replies 3 reposts 7 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
By tonight 500mb heights are forecast to be 5510 to 5520 meters. So that means the height you’d have to rise to from the ground to reach a pressure of 500mb is 5,520 meters. (Pressure decreases with altitude). The cold pool aloft helps create instability & lift for storms.
0 replies 0 reposts 2 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
It’s rare that an upper level low pivots so far south over FL. The cold pool of air aloft is being forced south by a mega block, with an El Niño is assist. Result: overachieving storms w/ hail & tornadoes. Pictured: 500mb heights which may in Tampa’s top 5 lowest on record.1/
1 replies 3 reposts 6 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
Crypto Mining Consumes a Mind-Boggling 2% of U.S. Electricity
Bitcoin alone consumes roughly the same amount of energy as Utah - about the same amount of electricity consumed by around 3 million to around 6 million homes. heatmap.news/sparks/bitco...
4 replies 10 reposts 16 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
The projected decline in snowpack and thus runoff into reservoirs is stunning and scary by mid-late century. In the orange and red snowpack thins to almost nothing in just a few decades. Think about the water woes/ wildfire threat this brings. More here: www.wfla.com/weather/clim...
0 replies 2 reposts 4 likes
|
|
Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
[ View ] |
In a warmer climate, snow levels rise and snow pack decreases by a HUGE amount. Why? Think about the difference in width of the mountain base vs peak. The drop in snow pack area is huge. (This is an idealized graphic, numbers are only to help explain). The result is this… 1/
1 replies 4 reposts 10 likes