Aaron Sojourner

Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:47 UTC

Those "teen summer jobs are back!" stories have something to them: 37.3% of 16-19 year-olds were employed in June, the highest June employment rate since 2007.

3 replies 8 reposts 29 likes

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:54 UTC

I don't think so, no. Hours are still sensibly high.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:53 UTC

Last thing. BLS does amazing work to create timely, accurate info about America's working families, a huge public good.

They are there for us & we need to show up for them.

If you care about workers & employment, follow & join Friends of BLS.
www.friendsofbls.org/about-the-fr...

0 replies 1 reposts 7 likes

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:52 UTC

On average workers can afford more stuff per hour of work than a year ago; hourly wages grew faster than consumer prices, 3.9% vs 3.3%. Caveat: rise, dip, & rise in 2020-2021 earnings mostly not real. Low-wage workers let go spring '20, wage of still-employed up. 2021 service hiring spike reversed

1 replies 1 reposts 9 likes

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:47 UTC

If employer demand for labor falls or new workers enter to supply, price (wage) should fall. Private-sector wage growth decelerating in annualized over-the-month (3.5%), over-3-month (3.6%), & over-year (3.9%) rates. Fed, bizs, & retirees want to push this down. Working families, not so much.

1 replies 0 reposts 3 likes

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:47 UTC

Fall in temporary help employment is scariest signal here. Easy to add when demand 🔼 & shrink when demand 🔽. Over-year fall is strong predictor of recession, been falling for a while. Alternatively, temp agencies can't keep staff bcz employers forced to use more perm hires. That'd be a new pattern.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:43 UTC

Hours among those who usually work full time remains a bit lower than pre-pandemic. Didn't fall further in June. Has ratcheted down in last 3 recessions. Full time isn't as full as it used to be, which could be an increase in job quality for many salaried workers. Across industries, except ag.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:42 UTC

That’s the extensive quantity (Q) margin. Intensive Q margin is average hours. Average workweek hours for private-sector steady at 34.3 hours for third month in a row. This has normalized down a lot from earlier in the pandemic when employers worked staff longer, instead of hiring.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:42 UTC

A big spike in employees absent due to childcare problems, from 19K to 70K during June survey week. This fell to pre-pandemic levels for the first time in May, so huge jump after decline (Figure). Isn't seasonally adjusted but large May-June jump uncommon (Table). Could be noise. Keep eye on it.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:38 UTC

Prime age (25-54 years old) employment share is an important measure of core labor market strength, omits people on the fringes of work, steady at 80.8% for 3 months now. This is higher than any month since 2001, except it was 80.9% in July 2023.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:37 UTC

The share of adults employed held steady at 60.1%.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:37 UTC

Labor force participation rate (LFPR) was 62.6%, partially reversing a 0.2 percentage point (pp) drop last month. Boomer retirements push LFPR down about 0.2 pp/year, so June's LFPR, down just 0.4 pp from 5 years prior, is higher than expected based on June 2019’s level & demographic change alone.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:36 UTC

This months breaks the streak of unemployment rates at or below 4.0%. It extends the streak of unemployment rates at or below 4.1%, longest in a half century.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:35 UTC

Turning from job growth to unemployment, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point (pp) to 4.1%, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.8 million, changed little in June but each rose slightly.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org [ View ] Jul 05, 2024 at 13:35 UTC

Contrary to popular impression, fiscal policy at all gov't levels is creating a DRAG on economic growth by -0.71 pp in annualized terms in 2024Q2, per Brookings.

The U.S. labor market remains strong despite braking by fiscal and monetary policy.
www.brookings.edu/articles/hut...

1 replies 2 reposts 7 likes